MatchWiz

Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: stolen bases at 69/100.

Today's top board
69
Stolen Bases · vs CHC
Our calls on him · hits
58%
1+ hit in 11/19 top-20 calls
Games graded
120
this season, box-score final
Josh Naylor
1BBats LThrows LSeattle Mariners
Stolen Bases69/100proj 0.2#7Hits66.8/100proj 1#29Runs62.9/100proj 0.5#30H+R+RBI61.4/100proj 1.8#35Singles61.3/100proj 0.6#21Fantasy Points60.6/100proj 7.3#18Total Bases59.7/100proj 1.6#29RBIs51.5/100proj 0.5#42Doubles31.2/100proj 0.2#59Walks29.7/100proj 0.3#73Home Runs12.5/100proj 0.1#65Triples7.7/100proj 0#55

Today's matchup

Josh draws Chicago Cubs at home today. He shows up on 12 boards — stolen bases (69/100, #7), hits (66.8/100, #29), runs (62.9/100, #30), h+r+rbi (61.4/100, #35). We've got him at 0.2 on the stolen bases board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Josh is 12-for-41 (.293) over his last 10 games, in line with his .266 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Josh has 9 home runs and 27 extra-base hits in 467 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Josh hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Josh has recorded at least one hit in 82 of 120 games he's batted in — 68% — with 34 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Josh is hitting .244 at home (53-for-217) and .284 on the road (71-for-250) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Josh's biggest night was Saturday, August 8, 2026 against TB — 3-for-4 with 2 homers, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Josh have graded

In the 19 games where we ranked Josh a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 11 times — 58%. Middle of the road, which is what most players look like. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Josh was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: stolen bases graded 69/100 while triples came in at 7.7/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Josh gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22vs CHC40000
Friday, August 21vs CHC41010
Thursday, August 20@ MIL40000
Wednesday, August 19@ MIL53002
Tuesday, August 18@ MIL41000
Sunday, August 16@ HOU51000
Saturday, August 15@ HOU52020
Friday, August 14@ HOU42011
Thursday, August 13@ NYY41000
Wednesday, August 12@ NYY21001
Sunday, August 9vs TB31000
Saturday, August 8vs TB43222

Josh Naylor — FAQ

Who is Josh Naylor facing today?

Josh Naylor is hosting Chicago Cubs on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 69/100 on our stolen bases board, ranked #7.

What is Josh Naylor's projection today?

We project Josh for 0.2 on the stolen bases board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Josh Naylor graded?

In the 19 games where our model ranked Josh a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 11 times — 58%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Josh Naylor been hitting lately?

Josh is 12-for-41 (.293) over his last 10 games, against .266 on the season across 467 at-bats in our log, with 9 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Josh Naylor appear on?

Josh was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — stolen bases, hits, runs, h+r+rbi, singles. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Josh Naylor's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).