Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is going deep on .045 HR/PA against righties this year — and .028 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Seth Lugo: big-time bat at .061 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: big-time bat at .064 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Will Warren: elite bat at .070 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053), due to bounce back.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (80) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (68) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (65) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: big-time bat at .058 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (65) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: big-time bat at .054 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .066 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.