MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Best MLB plays today — Monday, July 20, 2026

Every board's highest-conviction edges in one place — where our model diverges far enough from the book to have been profitable in the season backtest. 6 plays posted. Each play is graded in the open with our running hit rate and ROI. Research signals, not betting advice — 21+.

Today · ★ rec units
0–0+0.0u
6 posted · grading as games go final
Season · ★ rec units
109–68+33.8u
62% hit · +13% ROI
flat 1u+19.0u· +11% ROI

◆ Team totals

Each club's projected runs vs its over/under — our biggest disagreements with the market, lineups final. This season team-total leans are hitting 63% — a +13% return · +11.4u net over 87 graded.

Δ1.8LADLIVE LAD vs PHIwe project 5.3 runs vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.52uCZRCaesars-125
Δ1.6WSHNEW8:40 PM WSH vs COLwe project 8.1 runs vs the 6.5 lineOver 6.52uFDFanDuel+108
Δ1.4DETNEW8:05 PM DET vs CHCwe project 4.1 runs vs the 5.5 lineUnder 5.51uBOVBovada-105
Δ1.4NYYLIVE NYY vs PITwe project 4.9 runs vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51u-128
Δ1.4CHCNEW8:05 PM CHC vs DETwe project 4.1 runs vs the 5.5 lineUnder 5.51uDKDraftKings-115
Δ1.4MINLIVE MIN vs CLEwe project 4.9 runs vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51uBOLBetOnline-141

A research signal from our run model vs the market, graded in the open. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

★★ Strikeouts — Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 60% rate — a +8% return · +7.5u net.

Δ1.6Ronel BlancoLIVE MIA @ HOUwe project 5.1 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51uBOLBetOnline-143·

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Why we only surface these markets

We post a play only where a full-season backtest shows a durable, repeatable edge — today that's strikeout props (big projection-vs-line gaps) and team-total leans (our strongest run-total disagreements). Everything else we publish as graded transparency, not plays: our number set beside the market and scored in the open, but with no lean attached.

Markets like the moneyline, game totals, home runs, hits, RBI, runs, and total bases are priced sharply and managed tightly by the books. Across a full season of backtesting, even a well-tuned model can't find a repeatable edge in them — beating these markets consistently is strikingly hard, so we won't manufacture a play we can't stand behind. If one of them ever earns a sustained edge, it'll surface here automatically.

Δ shows how far our projection diverges from the book's line — the bigger the disagreement, the stronger the historical edge. Hit rates and ROI are season-to-date, graded against the posted line. Not betting advice.