MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 20, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 60% rate — a +8% return.

Δ1.6Ronel BlancoLIVE MIA @ HOUwe project 5.1 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51uBOLBetOnline-143·

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

● 2–9 · Top 6MINMINawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup55● 5–8 · End 3PITPITawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup65● 3–1 · Top 5TBTBawayTORTORhomeTop matchup75● 2–3 · Bot 5BALBALawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup69● 1–4 · Top 4LADLADawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup52● 1–1 · Bot 5SDSDawayATLATLhomeTop matchup30● 0–3 · Top 3NYMNYMawayMILMILhomeTop matchup100● 0–0 · Bot 3SFSFawayKCKChomeTop matchup178:05 PM ETDETDETawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup43● 0–0 · Bot 1CWSCWSawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup68● 0–0 · Bot 1MIAMIAawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup618:40 PM ETWSHWSHawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup529:40 PM ETCINCINawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup1009:40 PM ETATHATHawayAZAZhomeTop matchup2810:10 PM ETSTLSTLawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup39
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ BAL10
Jun 17vs BAL5
Jun 23@ PIT5
Jun 29vs LAA7
Jul 8@ MIA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.8%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)20.0%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.6%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)23.4%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.4%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.1%3.0
7. Dane Myers (R)23.2%2.3
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-121-110
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-134+105
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate34.4% K / BF

vs LHB37.6%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs PHI15
Jun 19@ ATL7
Jun 26vs CHC8
Jul 2vs CIN10
Jul 7@ STL11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)26.4%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.2%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)18.1%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)19.6%3.0
5. Jorge Polanco (L)19.6%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)20.1%2.9
7. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.2%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)23.0%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 8.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+100-134
BOVBovada+115-150
FDFanDuel+120-154

We project 7.8 K vs the 8.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.9% K / BF

vs LHB29.3%
vs RHB31.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ BOS7
Jun 22vs HOU8
Jun 27vs TEX10
Jul 3@ SEA9
Jul 8@ SF11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.5%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.6%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)22.6%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)24.2%2.9
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.6%2.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.8%2.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)17.6%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)18.4%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BRBetRivers+115-155
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+106-135
FANFanatics+110-145
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 6.1 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB26.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21@ SEA2
Jun 26vs NYY7
Jul 1vs WSH5
Jul 7@ CWS6
Jul 12@ NYM7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.0%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)24.7%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.7%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)26.9%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)24.4%2.8
6. Leody Taveras (R)26.0%2.0
7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.6%2.0
8. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)22.5%2.0
9. Sam Huff (R)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-101-120
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-106-120
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 6.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ BOS5
Jun 19vs SD9
Jun 24@ MIA8
Jun 30@ CLE9
Jul 7vs LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)17.6%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)29.3%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)29.5%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)18.9%3.0
6. Kyle Teel (L)22.0%2.1
7. Braden Montgomery (L)18.8%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)19.8%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BRBetRivers-152+114
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-160+125
FDFanDuel-146+114

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.9%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ ATH7
Jun 24vs SEA10
Jun 29@ PHI8
Jul 4@ WSH7
Jul 11vs MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)18.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)26.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.5%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.0%3.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)21.5%2.1
7. Ryan McMahon (L)28.0%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)24.4%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-114-117
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-131+103
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB25.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18vs CWS8
Jun 24@ DET6
Jun 29vs DET3
Jul 5vs MIN6
Jul 10@ WSH6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)20.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)29.2%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.2%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.6%2.7
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.1%2.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)19.4%2.0
8. Henry Davis (R)22.9%2.0
9. Billy Cook (R)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-120-108
BRBetRivers+107-143
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings-117-109
FDFanDuel+100-128

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB28.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Stowers (L)30.2%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.1%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)14.9%3.0
4. Liam Hicks (L)11.9%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)28.0%3.0
6. Jakob Marsee (L)18.9%2.0
7. Joe Mack (L)23.7%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)22.0%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-159+122
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-164+128
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 5.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ronel Blanco's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ TEX7
Jun 24vs LAD9
Jun 30@ HOU5
Jul 5@ NYY9
Jul 11vs LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)12.6%3.0
2. Travis Bazzana (L)23.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)15.6%3.0
4. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.3%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.2%2.3
6. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.5%2.0
7. David Fry (R)23.1%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.1%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BRBetRivers-137+104
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-125-102
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-118-108

We project 5.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs PIT8
Jun 24vs BOS4
Jul 1vs MIA7
Jul 6@ LAD2
Jul 11@ SF9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)29.7%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)21.0%3.0
3. Andrés Chaparro (R)23.6%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)25.0%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)22.8%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)18.9%3.0
7. Harry Ford (R)23.6%2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+115-152
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+100-128
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ CWS8
Jun 21vs BAL4
Jun 28@ SD5
Jul 5vs SD5
Jul 12vs AZ7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.3%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.3%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%2.3
5. Brandon Marsh (L)22.8%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)19.2%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.9%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-124-107
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-118-108
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.5%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs SEA7
Jun 12@ CLE1
Jun 28vs HOU9
Jul 4@ TEX5
Jul 10vs PHI6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)27.4%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)23.0%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)18.5%2.8
5. Ian Happ (L)26.9%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.7%2.0
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)18.2%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.4%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline-103-125
BRBetRivers+105-139
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-111-115
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel-106-120

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jack Flaherty's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB28.1%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs NYM5
Jun 25@ WSH6
Jun 30vs PIT9
Jul 6@ KC1
Jul 11@ DET7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.1%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)20.6%3.0
3. Tommy Edman (R)21.4%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)20.4%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)14.2%3.0
6. Miguel Rojas (R)16.9%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.9%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)19.0%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+125-164
BRBetRivers+107-143
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+111-142
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 5.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ SF4
Jun 15vs KC5
Jun 21@ TB6
Jun 26@ BAL5
Jul 7vs HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.4%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)22.1%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (R)23.8%2.8
4. Hunter Goodman (R)28.7%2.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)17.4%2.0
6. Willi Castro (R)28.5%2.0
7. Braxton Fulford (R)30.0%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)17.8%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+107-139
BRBetRivers+116-155
DKDraftKings+109-139
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17vs SD7
Jun 23vs AZ3
Jun 28vs MIA5
Jul 4@ CHC6
Jul 10vs ATL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)25.1%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.9%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)28.2%2.4
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.2%2.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)24.7%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)22.3%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)25.1%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-156+120
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-141+110
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ NYY6
Jun 26@ PIT6
Jul 1@ MIL3
Jul 7vs PHI8
Jul 12vs CHC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randy Arozarena (R)21.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.1%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.4%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (R)27.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)19.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)22.8%2.1
7. Victor Robles (R)22.5%2.0
8. Buddy Kennedy (R)21.9%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-164+125
BRBetRivers-155+116
BOVBovada-160+120
FDFanDuel-154+120

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ SEA9
Jun 23@ LAA5
Jun 29vs CWS6
Jul 7vs CHC3
Jul 12vs KC9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)21.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.3%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)26.4%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.4%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)16.2%3.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)26.7%2.2
8. Connor Wong (R)23.3%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+121-155
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+120-154

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ PHI2
Jun 25vs CHC5
Jul 1@ TOR4
Jul 6@ ATL6
Jul 11vs BOS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)27.7%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)24.1%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)22.0%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)16.0%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)31.0%2.8
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.5%2.0
7. Jake Bauers (L)28.2%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)18.9%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+107-139
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+112-143
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ ATH6
Jun 24vs BAL4
Jun 30@ SEA9
Jul 7@ TEX4
Jul 12@ MIN0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.6%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)20.0%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)16.7%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)24.1%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.8%2.6
6. Masyn Winn (R)19.1%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)20.9%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)21.6%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-169+130
BRBetRivers-141+106
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-161+126
FDFanDuel-166+130

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATL5
Jun 30@ CHC4
Jul 5@ LAD5
Jul 10vs TOR3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)19.8%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)12.9%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)25.5%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)25.9%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)19.9%2.5
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.6%2.0
7. Joey Bart (R)26.1%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)22.6%2.0
9. Eli White (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-152+114
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-152+119
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs COL5
Jun 19vs LAA4
Jun 25@ SF6
Jun 30vs LAD2
Jul 8@ DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)17.3%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.6%3.0
3. Tim Tawa (R)22.0%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.8%3.0
5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)22.0%2.5
6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.3%2.0
7. Tyler Locklear (R)32.2%2.0
8. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)20.7%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline+105-135
BRBetRivers+105-139
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings+108-138
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 4.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16@ CWS2
May 22vs HOU5
May 27@ PIT4
Jun 2vs ATH6
Jun 7vs SF2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.9%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)22.0%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)20.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)25.5%3.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.4%2.2
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.7%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.8%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)22.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)34.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-180+135
FDFanDuel-174+136

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jameson Taillon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs PIT4
Jun 14@ NYM2
Jun 21vs MIL6
Jun 27@ SF4
Jul 9@ PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.4%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.2%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)20.7%3.0
4. Ty France (R)19.5%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)19.5%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)22.2%2.1
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.3%2.0
8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.4%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-143+112
FDFanDuel-170+132

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB19.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ HOU7
Jun 24@ CWS3
Jun 30vs TEX2
Jul 5vs CWS1
Jul 11@ MIA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)19.2%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)24.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.8%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)24.8%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)17.2%2.4
7. Brooks Lee (L)15.4%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)22.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-141+107
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-129+101
FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ WSH3
Jun 22@ TB5
Jun 27@ CWS7
Jul 4vs PHI7
Jul 9@ NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.5%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)25.7%3.0
5. Heliot Ramos (R)26.6%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.8%2.3
7. Willy Adames (R)26.6%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.1%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+100-130
BRBetRivers-104-129
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings-110-115
FDFanDuel+104-132

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 9vs WSH6
May 15@ TB4
May 20vs ATL3
May 25@ TOR3
Jul 9vs SEA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.6%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.5%3.0
4. Jose Altuve (R)20.8%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)23.3%2.9
6. Yainer Diaz (R)17.0%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)22.0%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)22.0%2.0
9. Lucas Spence (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-137+106
BRBetRivers-103-130
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-136+107
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-140+110

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.4%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ MIA1
Jun 26vs ATL3
Jul 1@ AZ5
Jul 7vs TOR0
Jul 12vs COL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)28.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.5%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.7%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)23.1%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.5%2.1
6. Salvador Perez (R)22.2%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)15.9%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)22.6%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+117-152
BRBetRivers+114-152
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+115-146
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+118-150

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.6% K / BF

vs LHB18.7%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ STL3
Jul 12@ LAD0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)14.8%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.2%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.3%3.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)26.6%2.2
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)18.5%2.0
6. Jonah Heim (R)18.9%2.0
7. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.0
8. Alika Williams (R)21.8%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
BOLBetOnline+126-164
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+136-174
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+118-150

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB16.8%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 5@ LAA2
May 12vs KC2
May 17vs CHC2
Jun 3@ MIN2
Jun 30@ BAL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)20.2%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.1%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)20.9%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.3%2.1
5. Jake Burger (R)24.9%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.7%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)22.1%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)22.0%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)16.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+113-147
BRBetRivers+116-155
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+114-146
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 3.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Erick Fedde's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.3% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB16.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15@ LAD6
Jun 21vs WSH5
Jun 26vs AZ3
Jul 3@ HOU3
Jul 10vs SEA1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.0%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.6%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.8%2.6
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.9%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.2%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)14.5%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.8%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)14.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+140-185
BOVBovada+135-180
FDFanDuel+138-180

We project 2.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +8% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays