MLB moneyline & run totals — Monday, July 20, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (53%, n=487) and game total (52%, n=457), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 63% at +13% ROI over 87 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
◆ Strongest leans — our biggest ML · total · team-total · NRFI disagreements →
MINMinnesota Twins70%-229fair+126mktModel lean+27.1%
CLECleveland Guardians30%+229fair-148mkt-27.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates39%+157fair+126mkt-3.6%
NYYNew York Yankees61%-157fair-149mktModel lean+3.6%
TBTampa Bay Rays39%+159fair-114mkt-12.3%
TORToronto Blue Jays61%-159fair-105mktModel lean+12.3%
BALBaltimore Orioles37%+170fair+135mkt-4.0%
BOSBoston Red Sox63%-170fair-158mktModel lean+4.0%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers66%-192fair+115mktModel lean+21.1%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies34%+192fair-136mkt-21.1%
SDSan Diego Padres37%+172fair+122mkt-6.6%
ATLAtlanta Braves63%-172fair-142mktModel lean+6.6%
NYMNew York Mets41%+142fair+122mkt-2.2%
MILMilwaukee Brewers59%-142fair-142mktModel lean+2.2%
SFSan Francisco Giants54%-119fair-104mktModel lean+5.0%
KCKansas City Royals46%+119fair-110mkt-5.0%
DETDetroit Tigers50%+100fair-109mkt-0.2%
CHCChicago Cubs50%-100fair-108mktModel lean+0.2%
CWSChicago White Sox61%-156fair+142mktModel lean+21.2%
TEXTexas Rangers39%+156fair-168mkt-21.2%
MIAMiami Marlins44%+126fair+112mkt-1.1%
HOUHouston Astros56%-126fair-132mktModel lean+1.1%
WSHWashington Nationals69%-225fair-104mktModel lean+20.4%
COLColorado Rockies31%+225fair-115mkt-20.4%
CINCincinnati Reds43%+131fair-104mkt-5.5%
SEASeattle Mariners57%-131fair-115mktModel lean+5.5%
ATHAthletics39%+153fair+125mkt-3.4%
AZArizona Diamondbacks61%-153fair-145mktModel lean+3.4%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals51%-102fair-114mkt-0.4%
LAALos Angeles Angels49%+102fair-105mktModel lean+0.4%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.
MLB moneyline & team totals — FAQ
How accurate is MatchWiz's MLB moneyline and run-total model?
We grade every game against the result and post the record right on the board. Moneylines and game totals are efficient markets, so the model grades near break-even there and we treat those as transparency, not plays. Team totals are a softer market — that's where it's finding a real edge.
What's a team total, and why does the model bet it?
A team total is the over/under on one club's runs, not the whole game. It's a softer, less-efficient market than the moneyline, so our run projections find more room there. When our projected runs gap the line enough, we post it as a play with recommended units.
How does the run-total (over/under) projection work?
We project each side's runs from its lineup against the starter and bullpen, plus park and weather, then sum both sides for the game total and set it beside the market line. Over or under is just which side of that line we land on. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly.
Are these MLB betting picks?
No. Every number here is a graded research signal from our model, shown against the market and honest about its record. Not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).