Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.1 BF
Expected batters faced16.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)18.8%2.0
2. David Fry (R)18.1%2.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.6%2.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)16.7%2.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)23.7%2.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)22.8%2.0
7. Stuart Fairchild (R)20.4%2.0
8. Kahlil Watson (L)22.5%1.1
9. Austin Hedges (R)23.9%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.4 BF
Expected batters faced16.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)21.2%2.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)23.3%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.3%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)22.2%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)23.7%2.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.8%2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)23.2%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.7%1.4
9. Derek Hill (R)21.7%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.4 BF
Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)24.7%2.4
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.9%2.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)22.2%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)19.8%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)25.7%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)18.8%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)26.6%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)17.4%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)21.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate27.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.2%
vs RHB27.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.6 BF
Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)25.3%2.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)23.3%2.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)20.8%2.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.1%2.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)24.5%2.0
6. Jonah Heim (L)20.1%2.0
7. Carlos Cortes (L)22.3%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)25.2%1.6
9. Jeff McNeil (L)21.3%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)23.4%3.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.8%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)23.3%3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.8%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)18.6%2.6
6. Spencer Jones (L)22.5%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)23.4%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)20.3%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)19.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)25.5%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)24.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.1%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)21.4%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)19.4%2.3
6. Eli White (R)22.5%2.0
7. Jorge Mateo (R)22.5%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.4%2.0
9. Sandy León (L)19.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)22.6%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.4%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)25.5%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)21.5%2.5
6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)25.9%2.0
7. Caleb Durbin (R)19.2%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)23.3%2.0
9. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)20.8%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)23.5%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)21.3%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.0%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.9%2.4
6. Josh Smith (L)21.3%2.0
7. Jake Burger (R)22.3%2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.5%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)20.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)22.2%3.0
2. Nick Madrigal (R)22.0%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)26.3%3.0
4. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.4%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)23.0%3.0
6. Christian Moore (R)23.1%2.3
7. Denzer Guzman (R)20.8%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.4%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)21.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)23.3%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.5%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)25.6%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)24.3%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)19.8%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)22.7%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)22.5%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)24.5%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)22.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)21.3%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.9%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)23.3%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)23.5%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.9%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)21.7%2.4
7. Colton Cowser (L)20.7%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)26.1%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)21.7%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)26.4%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)22.8%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)22.0%2.6
5. A.J. Ewing (L)24.6%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)19.6%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)21.4%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)18.4%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)22.6%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)29.6%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)19.7%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)29.9%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)22.5%3.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)22.4%2.1
7. Blake Perkins (R)21.9%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.5%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)21.1%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)22.2%3.0
3. Jesús Sánchez (L)25.3%3.0
4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%2.5
5. Ernie Clement (R)26.3%2.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)27.8%2.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.6%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.6%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)27.0%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)25.9%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)24.3%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)21.8%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)20.3%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.5%2.5
7. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.8%2.0
8. Junior Perez (R)22.5%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)20.8%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)27.3%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)25.1%3.0
4. Starling Marte (R)22.7%2.9
5. Salvador Perez (R)21.5%2.0
6. Carter Jensen (L)23.9%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)22.4%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (R)20.2%2.0
9. Michael Massey (L)22.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)23.4%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)24.4%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)21.3%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)23.1%3.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)20.8%3.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)21.9%2.2
8. Tristan Gray (L)22.3%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.9 BF
Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.2%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)18.9%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)21.7%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)25.9%3.0
5. Cole Young (L)23.5%3.0
6. Colt Emerson (L)23.9%3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)18.1%2.9
8. Victor Robles (R)24.8%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)19.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
16 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Ryan JohnsonP
LAA@ATH· proj #4
8HFinal
T1
Noah CameronP
KCvsSTL· proj #10
8HFinal
3
Aaron NolaP
PHIvsNYM· proj #12
7HFinal
T3
Matthew LiberatoreP
STL@KC· proj #16
7HFinal
T3
Jack LeiterP
TEXvsMIN· proj #17
7HFinal
6
Sean ManaeaP
NYM@PHI· proj #2
6HFinal
T6
Sonny GrayP
BOSvsTOR· proj #14
6HFinal
8
Sean BurkeP
CWS@NYY· proj #5
5HFinal
T8
Shane BazP
BAL@SEA· proj #18
5HFinal
10
Trey YesavageP
TOR@BOS· proj #7
4HFinal
T10
Parker MessickP
CLE@MIL· proj #13
4HFinal
12
Shane DrohanP
MILvsCLE· proj #1
3HFinal
T12
Joe RyanP
MIN@TEX· proj #8
3HFinal
T12
Bryan WooP
SEAvsBAL· proj #11
3HFinal
T12
Ryan WeathersP
NYYvsCWS· proj #15
3HFinal
16
Gage JumpP
ATHvsLAA· proj #9
1HFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Shane Drohan (MIL) is the top hits allowed spot on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.3 H, with Sean Manaea (NYM) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Shane Drohan
Shane Drohan (MIL) tops the Thursday, June 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.3 H vs CLE. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Sean Manaea (NYM) (89) — about 3.6 H vs PHI.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (83) — about 3.7 H vs SF.
Ryan Johnson (LAA) (56) — about 4.4 H vs ATH.
Sean Burke (CWS) (50) — about 4.6 H vs NYY.
Landen Roupp (SF) (47) — about 4.6 H vs ATL.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 4.8 H. Shane Drohan finished with 3. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?
Shane Drohan (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 3.3 H against CLE.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, June 18, 2026: Shane Drohan (~3.3 H), Sean Manaea (~3.6 H), Martín Pérez (~3.7 H), Ryan Johnson (~4.4 H), Sean Burke (~4.6 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
