Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.2 BF
Expected batters faced9.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)23.0%1.2
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.7%1.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.8%1.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)25.8%1.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)21.1%1.0
6. Masataka Yoshida (L)21.8%1.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)25.7%1.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.4%1.0
9. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.2%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.6 BF
Expected batters faced9.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.4%1.6
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%1.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)27.9%1.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)24.9%1.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.2%1.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.0%1.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)20.2%1.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.5%1.0
9. Nathan Church (L)23.5%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload15.8 BF
Expected batters faced15.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)23.6%2.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)24.1%2.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)22.7%2.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)22.3%2.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L)22.5%2.0
6. Edouard Julien (L)22.0%2.0
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.5%1.8
8. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.5%1.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)22.1%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.5 BF
Expected batters faced14.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)23.0%2.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)23.6%2.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)20.4%2.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)24.6%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)19.7%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)24.4%1.6
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)22.8%1.0
8. José Tena (L)21.7%1.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.7%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.6 BF
Expected batters faced17.6
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)24.0%2.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)22.1%2.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)27.0%2.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)21.3%2.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)23.9%2.0
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)22.1%2.0
8. LuJames Groover (R)22.5%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)26.7%1.6
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB16.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)26.6%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)26.1%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)24.1%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)21.3%3.0
5. Everson Pereira (R)23.6%2.0
6. Edgar Quero (R)18.9%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (R)22.5%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)23.2%2.0
9. Sam Antonacci (L)16.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB16.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)22.9%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)21.7%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.4%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)21.1%2.8
6. Spencer Steer (R)20.2%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)23.9%2.0
8. Jose Trevino (R)20.0%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)20.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.0 BF
Expected batters faced20.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)20.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)24.2%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)22.6%2.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)20.3%2.0
5. Michael Massey (L)24.7%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)19.5%2.0
7. John Rave (L)17.9%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)18.7%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)19.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.2 BF
Expected batters faced20.2
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.6%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)25.3%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)21.0%2.3
4. Michael Busch (L)21.9%2.0
5. Alex Bregman (R)21.5%2.0
6. Ian Happ (R)18.4%2.0
7. Matt Shaw (R)22.9%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)24.5%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)21.9%3.0
2. Kyle Manzardo (L)21.3%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)22.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)19.6%2.4
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)20.9%2.0
6. David Fry (R)23.9%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)22.7%2.0
8. Petey Halpin (L)22.4%2.0
9. Patrick Bailey (L)20.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)23.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)26.7%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)23.2%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)20.2%2.1
5. Jose Altuve (R)21.3%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)20.0%2.0
7. Joey Loperfido (L)20.8%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)22.0%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB18.9%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Tommy Edman (R)24.2%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.3%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)20.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)20.5%2.5
5. Miguel Rojas (R)25.1%2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.3%2.0
7. Alex Call (R)23.7%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.2%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)19.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB19.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness24.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)26.8%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.1%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)24.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.4%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)31.3%2.3
6. Willy Adames (R)22.0%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)22.9%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)21.8%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)20.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB15.4%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.5%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)26.2%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)24.8%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.9%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)22.7%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)22.3%2.5
7. Matt Vierling (R)18.1%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.9%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)18.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)20.5%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)24.2%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.3%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)23.9%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)25.4%2.3
6. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.6%2.0
7. Davis Schneider (R)17.5%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)22.1%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)19.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)20.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)20.0%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)27.5%3.0
4. Oswald Peraza (R)22.7%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)21.0%3.0
6. Denzer Guzman (R)20.3%2.8
7. Jose Siri (R)23.5%2.0
8. Logan Porter (R)21.6%2.0
9. Wade Meckler (L)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)24.2%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)25.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.6%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)23.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)22.0%3.0
6. Sal Frelick (L)22.9%3.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.8%2.7
8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.5%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)20.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)21.4%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)27.1%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.4%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)26.5%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)21.0%3.0
6. Eli White (R)22.8%2.0
7. Jorge Mateo (R)24.0%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)19.7%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)19.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB18.9%
vs RHB24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)30.1%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)21.3%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)22.7%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)23.2%2.5
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)23.1%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)21.2%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)21.9%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)27.0%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.4%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)18.7%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)23.9%3.0
5. Richie Palacios (L)19.6%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)24.2%2.8
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.9%2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)21.2%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)21.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.7%
vs RHB24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.3%3.0
2. Samad Taylor (R)24.8%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)20.5%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)18.4%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)21.3%2.6
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.3%2.0
7. Ty France (R)20.5%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)23.9%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB26.8%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)24.9%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)23.9%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)23.4%3.0
4. Marcus Semien (R)21.1%3.0
5. Mark Vientos (R)23.7%3.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.5%3.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)19.8%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)21.5%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)22.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.9%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)17.8%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.3%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)27.2%3.0
5. Cole Young (L)23.9%3.0
6. Victor Robles (R)24.7%2.3
7. Colt Emerson (L)24.1%2.0
8. Connor Joe (R)21.3%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)20.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.0 BF
Expected batters faced25.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)23.1%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.0%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.4%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)24.6%3.0
5. Jonah Heim (L)19.6%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)23.9%3.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)21.3%3.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)24.5%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)20.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)22.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)20.2%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.9%3.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)26.7%3.0
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)20.1%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)28.0%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)18.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)17.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.8%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)20.3%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.3%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)27.2%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)22.1%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)22.2%3.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.5%3.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)22.4%2.5
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)20.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)24.7%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)27.3%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)20.9%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)23.3%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)22.3%2.4
6. Owen Caissie (L)19.5%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.0%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)22.5%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)21.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB26.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection6.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.9%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.9%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)22.9%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.4%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.0%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)21.8%3.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.5%2.2
8. Jackson Holliday (L)20.3%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)27.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
27 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Nick LodoloP
CINvsNYM· proj #22
11HFinal
2
Sean SullivanP
COL@CHC· proj #9
9HFinal
T2
Aaron CivaleP
ATHvsPIT· proj #25
9HFinal
4
Sandy AlcantaraP
MIA@PHI· proj #26
8HFinal
T4
George KirbyP
SEAvsBAL· proj #28
8HFinal
6
Carlos RodónP
NYYvsCWS· proj #6
7HFinal
T6
Zack LittellP
WSHvsKC· proj #8
7HFinal
T6
Gavin WilliamsP
CLE@MIL· proj #17
7HFinal
T6
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsTB· 0-for-1· proj #20
7HFinal
T6
Kyle LeahyP
STLvsSD· proj #21
7HFinal
11
Sam AldegheriP
LAA@AZ· proj #5
6HFinal
T11
Casey MizeP
DET@HOU· proj #11
6HFinal
T11
Eduardo RodriguezP
AZvsLAA· proj #16
6HFinal
T11
Carson WhisenhuntP
SF@ATL· proj #18
6HFinal
T11
Anthony KayP
CWS@NYY· proj #19
6HFinal
T11
Andrew PainterP
PHIvsMIA· proj #27
6HFinal
17
Javier AssadP
CHCvsCOL· proj #3
5HFinal
T17
JR RitchieP
ATLvsSF· proj #13
5HFinal
T17
Kyle BradishP
BAL@SEA· proj #23
5HFinal
20
Braxton AshcraftP
PIT@ATH· proj #24
4HFinal
21
Luinder AvilaP
KC@WSH· proj #4
3HFinal
T21
Nolan McLeanP
NYM@CIN· proj #7
3HFinal
T21
Shane McClanahanP
TB@LAD· proj #12
3HFinal
T21
Jake BennettP
BOSvsTOR· proj #15
3HFinal
25
Brandon SproatP
MILvsCLE· proj #10
2HFinal
T25
Peter LambertP
HOUvsDET· proj #14
2HFinal
27
Bradgley RodriguezP
SD@STL· proj #2
1HFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the top hits allowed spot on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.0 H, with Bradgley Rodriguez (SD) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher (TOR) tops the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.0 H vs BOS. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Bradgley Rodriguez (SD) (98) — about 2.1 H vs STL.
Javier Assad (CHC) (68) — about 3.3 H vs COL.
Luinder Avila (KC) (67) — about 3.3 H vs WSH.
Sam Aldegheri (LAA) (59) — about 3.6 H vs AZ.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (51) — about 4.0 H vs CWS.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 4.3 H. Braydon Fisher finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?
Braydon Fisher (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.0 H against BOS.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Braydon Fisher (~2.0 H), Bradgley Rodriguez (~2.1 H), Javier Assad (~3.3 H), Luinder Avila (~3.3 H), Sam Aldegheri (~3.6 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
