Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.6 BF
Expected batters faced14.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)22.7%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.3%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)20.2%2.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.9%2.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)26.7%2.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)20.8%1.6
7. Tyler Callihan (L)22.9%1.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)28.0%1.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)18.7%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.6 BF
Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Brandon Marsh (L)27.2%2.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)20.3%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.3%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)22.1%2.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)22.2%2.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.3%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.5%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)22.4%1.6
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.2%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.4%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)22.1%2.9
3. Michael Busch (L)22.6%2.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.9%2.0
5. Ian Happ (L)21.1%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)20.3%2.0
7. Matt Shaw (R)21.7%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)20.8%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)18.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB17.8%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.5%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)26.2%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)22.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.8%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.9%2.4
6. Wenceel Pérez (L)19.5%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)20.5%2.0
8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.9%2.0
9. James Outman (L)19.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB17.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)23.4%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)25.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)21.2%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)23.6%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)22.0%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)22.8%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)21.8%2.0
9. Chuckie Robinson (R)21.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.7%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (R)24.0%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)22.1%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)27.0%3.0
4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)23.5%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)23.9%2.5
7. Jordan Lawlar (R)22.1%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)20.1%2.0
9. LuJames Groover (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.8 BF
Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)23.1%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)22.9%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)21.7%2.8
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.4%2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)21.1%2.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)20.2%2.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.5%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)20.1%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.3%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)20.5%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)18.4%3.0
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.3%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)21.3%3.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)24.8%2.0
7. Ty France (R)20.5%2.0
8. Will Wagner (L)23.9%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.3 BF
Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)19.3%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.0%3.0
3. Rhys Hoskins (R)17.1%3.0
4. David Fry (R)19.2%3.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.6%2.3
6. Stuart Fairchild (R)20.8%2.0
7. Steven Kwan (L)18.8%2.0
8. Gabriel Arias (R)19.7%2.0
9. Austin Hedges (R)23.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)25.8%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)20.1%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.4%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)19.7%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)22.5%2.6
6. Chase Meidroth (R)23.0%2.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.5%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)26.9%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)17.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.9%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.9%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)22.9%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.4%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.0%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)21.8%2.1
7. Colton Cowser (L)21.4%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)27.0%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)20.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)21.8%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.8%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)25.8%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)21.1%3.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)20.0%2.6
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)25.7%2.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.2%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.5 BF
Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)22.4%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.8%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)23.2%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)21.4%2.5
5. Josh Bell (L)23.7%2.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)21.5%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)21.6%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)23.3%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)24.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.4%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)27.9%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)24.9%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.2%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.0%2.7
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)20.2%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.5%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)23.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB18.9%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)21.8%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)26.3%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)25.9%3.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)24.4%3.0
5. Starling Marte (R)22.0%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)21.8%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)21.5%2.0
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)20.8%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)22.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.1 BF
Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.9%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)17.8%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.3%3.0
4. Dominic Canzone (L)27.2%3.0
5. Rob Refsnyder (R)20.7%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)23.9%3.0
7. Victor Robles (R)24.7%2.1
8. Colt Emerson (L)24.1%2.0
9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)20.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.8 BF
Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)20.5%3.0
2. Ernie Clement (R)25.4%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)24.2%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)23.9%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.3%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)19.5%2.8
7. Davis Schneider (R)17.5%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.5%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB24.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.0 BF
Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)23.4%3.0
2. Cody Bellinger (L)22.9%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.1%3.0
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)18.8%3.0
5. Spencer Jones (L)22.5%3.0
6. José Caballero (R)23.2%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)20.7%2.0
8. J.C. Escarra (L)17.9%2.0
9. Anthony Volpe (R)20.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)23.8%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)26.3%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)20.1%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)20.6%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)23.3%3.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)24.2%2.7
7. Cam Smith (R)21.3%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)22.8%2.0
9. Raynel Delgado (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.7 BF
Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)24.8%3.0
2. Austin Slater (R)20.6%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.8%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)21.7%3.0
5. Ryan Vilade (R)23.8%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)23.6%3.0
7. Chandler Simpson (L)20.3%2.7
8. Nick Fortes (R)22.4%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R)20.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness24.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)26.8%3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.1%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)24.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.4%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)31.3%2.6
6. Willy Adames (R)22.0%2.0
7. Casey Schmitt (R)22.9%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)21.8%2.0
9. Daniel Susac (R)22.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (R)24.2%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)30.0%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)18.7%3.0
4. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.3%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)22.8%3.0
6. Leo Jiménez (R)20.0%2.6
7. Esteury Ruiz (R)21.8%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)18.5%2.0
9. Connor Norby (R)18.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.8%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)25.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.9%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)21.7%2.9
5. Dominic Smith (L)23.4%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)24.9%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)19.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.9%2.0
9. Ha-Seong Kim (R)18.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)22.6%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)23.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)23.3%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)22.8%2.9
5. A.J. Ewing (L)25.2%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)20.6%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)22.1%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)18.7%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.7 BF
Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)23.1%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.0%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.4%3.0
4. Jacob Wilson (R)24.6%3.0
5. Carlos Cortes (L)23.3%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)23.9%2.7
7. Lawrence Butler (L)21.3%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)24.5%2.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L)20.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)24.2%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)25.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.6%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)23.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)22.0%2.4
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)24.0%2.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.8%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.5%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)20.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)23.6%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)22.2%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)22.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)22.3%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)28.6%2.5
6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.5%2.0
7. Brett Sullivan (L)22.4%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.5%2.0
9. Edouard Julien (L)22.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)23.0%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)23.6%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)20.4%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)24.6%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)19.7%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)24.4%3.0
7. Jacob Young (R)22.4%3.0
8. Drew Millas (L)19.5%2.2
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)20.5%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)24.5%3.0
3. Wyatt Langford (R)21.7%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.9%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)24.0%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)21.4%3.0
7. Josh Smith (L)20.8%2.3
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.3%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)26.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)20.3%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)18.3%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)23.2%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)21.6%3.0
5. Nick Madrigal (R)25.6%3.0
6. Wade Meckler (L)25.9%3.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R)23.8%3.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)21.7%2.2
9. Donovan Walton (L)24.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
30 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Merrill KellyP
AZvsLAA· proj #30
11HFinal
2
Davis MartinP
CWS@NYY· proj #18
8HFinal
T2
Zebby MatthewsP
MIN@TEX· proj #29
8HFinal
4
Kumar RockerP
TEXvsMIN· proj #13
7HFinal
T4
Michael WachaP
KC@WSH· proj #28
7HFinal
6
Jack PerkinsP
ATHvsPIT· proj #1
6HFinal
T6
Tyler PhillipsP
MIA@PHI· proj #2
6HFinal
T6
Ryan FeltnerP
COL@CHC· proj #3
6HFinal
T6
Drew RasmussenP
TB@LAD· proj #5
6HFinal
T6
Foster GriffinP
WSHvsKC· proj #15
6HFinal
T6
Framber ValdezP
DET@HOU· proj #19
6HFinal
12
Michael KingP
SD@STL· proj #14
5HFinal
T12
Jesús LuzardoP
PHIvsMIA· proj #22
5HFinal
T12
Mitch KellerP
PIT@ATH· proj #25
5HFinal
15
Andre PallanteP
STLvsSD· proj #8
4HFinal
T15
Dylan CeaseP
TOR@BOS· proj #12
4HFinal
T15
Brandon YoungP
BAL@SEA· proj #16
4HFinal
T15
Payton TolleP
BOSvsTOR· proj #17
4HFinal
T15
Grant HolmesP
ATLvsSF· proj #21
4HFinal
20
Hunter BrownP
HOUvsDET· proj #4
3HFinal
T20
Reid DetmersP
LAA@AZ· proj #6
3HFinal
T20
Gerrit ColeP
NYYvsCWS· proj #10
3HFinal
T20
Justin WrobleskiP
LADvsTB· proj #20
3HFinal
T20
Adrian HouserP
SF@ATL· proj #23
3HFinal
T20
Brady SingerP
CINvsNYM· proj #24
3HFinal
T20
Slade CecconiP
CLE@MIL· proj #26
3HFinal
T20
Edward CabreraP
CHCvsCOL· proj #27
3HFinal
28
Kodai SengaP
NYM@CIN· proj #7
2HFinal
T28
Robert GasserP
MILvsCLE· proj #9
2HFinal
T28
Logan GilbertP
SEAvsBAL· proj #11
2HFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Jack Perkins (ATH) is the top hits allowed spot on the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.1 H, with Tyler Phillips (MIA) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Jack Perkins
Jack Perkins (ATH) tops the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.1 H vs PIT. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Tyler Phillips (MIA) (85) — about 3.5 H vs PHI.
Ryan Feltner (COL) (64) — about 4.1 H vs CHC.
Hunter Brown (HOU) (60) — about 4.2 H vs DET.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) (49) — about 4.5 H vs LAD.
Reid Detmers (LAA) (44) — about 4.6 H vs AZ.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 4.1 H. Jack Perkins finished with 6. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Tuesday, June 16, 2026)?
Jack Perkins (ATH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 3.1 H against PIT.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Jack Perkins (~3.1 H), Tyler Phillips (~3.5 H), Ryan Feltner (~4.1 H), Hunter Brown (~4.2 H), Drew Rasmussen (~4.5 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
