Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Top runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is scoring at .170 R/PA against righties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Ryan Johnson too — 1.000 across 1 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (97) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .163 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (91) vs RHP Jack Leiter: an elite bat at .170 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286), hot bat.
- Zack Gelof (ATH) (91) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) (90) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.278).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (84) vs RHP Jack Leiter: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.206).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (82) vs LHP Sean Manaea: a strong bat at .139 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) (79) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.278).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .206 against righties this year.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .225 against lefties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.