Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
Top runs spot: Andy Pages
Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Gibson. The righty is scoring at .145 R/PA against righties this year — and .158 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Trey Gibson has been getting lit up by righties lately — .200 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Trey Gibson. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.195), hitter's park.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP José Soriano: an elite bat at .171 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (97) vs RHP Griffin Jax: an elite bat at .188 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.056).
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (96) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (95) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (93) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .131 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125), hitter's park.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (92) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .157 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .212 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .149 against lefties this year.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Nick Gonzales (PIT) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Andy Pages finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.