Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luinder Avila. The lefty is scoring at .215 R/PA against righties this year — and .267 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 19% of his trips. And Luinder Avila has been getting lit up by righties lately — .364 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Luinder Avila, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (80) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an elite bat at .171 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (78) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.277), hot bat.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (76) vs RHP Luinder Avila: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.364).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (75) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.175), hot bat.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (75) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (74) vs RHP Gavin Williams: an excellent bat at .164 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (70) vs LHP Shane McClanahan: a strong bat at .145 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.400).
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.