Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, March 29, 2026)?

Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, March 29, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.6 K), Connelly Early (~6.1 K), MacKenzie Gore (~6.2 K), Bailey Ober (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, March 29, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, March 29, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 6–8

MINaway

BALhomeTop matchup72 Final · 8–3

TEXaway

PHIhomeTop matchup84 Final · 4–1

KCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup68 Final · 2–5

ATHaway

TORhomeTop matchup58 Final · 2–3

BOSaway

CINhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–3

PITaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

COLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup49 Final · 7–9

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup49 Final · 7–9

CWSaway

MILhomeTop matchup43 Final · 11–7

TBaway

STLhomeTop matchup33 Final · 6–3

WSHaway

CHChomeTop matchup66 Final · 0–8

CLEaway

SEAhomeTop matchup46

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.6% K/BF

vs LHB28.6%

vs RHB26.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.5%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.8%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.5%3.0

5. Jared Triolo (R)21.9%3.0

6. Billy Cook (R)31.9%2.0

7. Nick Gonzales (R)21.1%2.0

8. Henry Davis (R)21.9%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB33.7%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.2%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)25.6%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.6%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)22.3%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)22.9%3.0

6. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.0%2.0

7. Josh Jung (R)21.8%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)23.4%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate31.0% K/BF

vs LHB33.3%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)21.6%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)23.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)23.7%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.6%3.0

5. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.3%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.3%2.0

7. Dane Myers (R)21.6%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)20.3%2.0

9. Noelvi Marte (R)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.2%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.9%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.2%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.5%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)22.8%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.5%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)23.4%2.0

8. Brandon Marsh (L)26.8%2.0

9. Dylan Moore (R)30.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.8%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.6%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.6%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)20.9%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.0%3.0

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.2%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)23.2%2.0

8. Leody Taveras (L)23.3%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB28.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)20.5%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.8%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)20.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.3%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)22.6%3.0

6. Lane Thomas (R)23.0%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.6%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)15.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)25.1%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.4%3.0

3. Brady House (R)24.1%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)20.9%3.0

5. Joey Wiemer (R)22.5%3.0

6. CJ Abrams (L)23.3%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.7%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (R)20.6%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kody Clemens (L)24.1%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)23.0%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)20.1%3.0

4. Matt Wallner (L)25.7%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.9%3.0

6. Brooks Lee (L)20.1%2.0

7. James Outman (L)24.4%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)22.5%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)30.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shea Langeliers (R)21.9%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)23.6%3.0

3. Brent Rooker (R)20.1%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.8%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)11.1%3.0

6. Max Muncy (R)22.5%2.0

7. Darell Hernaiz (R)15.9%2.0

8. J.T. Ginn (R)22.0%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)31.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.2%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)20.7%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.4%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)25.3%3.0

5. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.9%3.0

6. Ozzie Albies (L)19.8%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)21.3%2.0

8. Kyle Farmer (R)22.5%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.4%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)20.4%3.0

3. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.1%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)25.4%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)22.1%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)21.3%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)23.0%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)27.4%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)21.6%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)21.8%3.0

3. Willi Castro (L)24.2%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.2%3.0

5. Braxton Fulford (R)29.1%3.0

6. Jordan Beck (R)22.2%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)23.3%2.0

8. Troy Johnston (L)22.3%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)20.2%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)29.9%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.9%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)19.1%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.1%3.0

6. Luke Raley (L)24.4%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)19.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)26.0%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.0%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)19.3%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)25.3%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.6%3.0

5. Derek Hill (R)25.0%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.7%2.0

7. Everson Pereira (R)27.5%2.0

8. Edgar Quero (L)23.4%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.5%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)21.4%3.0

3. Luis Rengifo (R)19.6%3.0

4. Trevor Megill (L)22.0%3.0

5. Sal Frelick (L)20.9%3.0

6. Joey Ortiz (R)20.5%2.0

7. Jake Bauers (L)24.2%2.0

8. Brandon Lockridge (R)22.0%2.0

9. Blake Perkins (R)18.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)19.4%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)19.0%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)23.5%3.0

4. Jorge Polanco (L)20.0%3.0

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)22.9%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)21.5%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)25.0%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)22.6%3.0

2. Myles Straw (R)16.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.6%3.0

4. Addison Barger (L)22.0%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)24.6%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)22.3%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)17.6%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.3%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)22.8%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)26.6%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)22.1%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.2%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)20.0%2.0

7. Masataka Yoshida (L)20.0%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)27.5%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)20.3%3.0

4. Masyn Winn (R)21.2%3.0

5. Thomas Saggese (R)27.1%3.0

6. Nolan Gorman (L)23.4%2.0

7. Jordan Walker (R)22.2%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.7%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.1%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.9%3.0

3. Cedric Mullins (L)20.0%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)21.3%3.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)19.9%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.3%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)21.3%2.0

8. Carson Williams (R)23.7%2.0

9. Nick Fortes (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Michael Busch (L)20.3%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)18.4%3.0

3. Ian Happ (L)25.9%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.8%3.0

5. Nico Hoerner (R)18.5%3.0

6. Carson Kelly (R)20.1%2.0

7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.7%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)20.4%2.0

9. Michael Conforto (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.3% K/BF

vs LHB16.5%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (L)25.1%3.0

2. David Fry (R)25.3%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)19.1%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.7%3.0

5. Bo Naylor (L)22.2%3.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.6%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)24.9%2.0

8. CJ Kayfus (L)23.0%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Owen Caissie (L)22.6%3.0

2. Griffin Conine (L)21.5%3.0

3. Jakob Marsee (L)20.9%3.0

4. Otto Lopez (R)20.2%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)22.8%3.0

6. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.3%2.0

7. Xavier Edwards (R)20.3%2.0

8. Liam Hicks (L)18.1%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate13.0% K/BF

vs LHB12.9%

vs RHB14.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)20.6%3.0

2. Jake Meyers (R)21.6%3.0

3. Nick Allen (R)23.8%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)21.9%3.0

5. Carlos Correa (R)20.6%3.0

6. Joey Loperfido (L)23.9%2.0

7. Christian Walker (R)20.6%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)25.1%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, March 29, 2026

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, March 29, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Jesús Luzardo (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PIT has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (84) — about 6.6 K vs TEX: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Connelly Early (BOS) (81) — about 6.1 K vs CIN: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (78) — about 6.2 K vs PHI: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Bailey Ober (MIN) (72) — about 5.7 K vs BAL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Grant Holmes (ATL) (68) — about 5.4 K vs KC: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Brandon Sproat is the arm to exploit it (43).
MIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shane Baz is the arm to exploit it (66).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Max Meyer is the arm to exploit it (49).
CLE is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Emerson Hancock is the arm to exploit it (26).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.6 strikeouts. Top play Nolan McLean punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, March 29, 2026)?: Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, March 29, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.6 K), Connelly Early (~6.1 K), MacKenzie Gore (~6.2 K), Bailey Ober (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, March 29, 2026?: Nolan McLean punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.