Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, April 5, 2026)?

Eric Lauer (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against CWS. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, April 5, 2026: Eric Lauer (~6.1 K), Lance McCullers Jr. (~6.5 K), Jack Leiter (~6.0 K), Chase Burns (~5.9 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, April 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, April 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 1–0

CHCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup53 Final · 5–6

CHCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup51 Final · 8–6

LADaway

WSHhomeTop matchup49 Final · 2–8

BALaway

PIThomeTop matchup42 Final · 8–6

SDaway

BOShomeTop matchup41 Final · 7–6

MIAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup43 Final · 4–1

TBaway

MINhomeTop matchup37 Final · 0–3

TORaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–5

MILaway

KChomeTop matchup80 Final · 2–1

CINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup91 Final · 1–4

PHIaway

COLhomeTop matchup25 Final · 10–12

HOUaway

ATHhomeTop matchup99 Final · 5–2

NYMaway

SFhomeTop matchup73 Final · 7–8

SEAaway

LAAhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–6

ATLaway

AZhomeTop matchup28 Final · 5–3

STLaway

DEThomeTop matchup27

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB27.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)21.5%3.0

2. Austin Hays (R)24.8%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)26.8%3.0

4. Miguel Vargas (R)20.8%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)22.2%2.7

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.2%2.0

7. Colson Montgomery (L)21.0%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.5%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness25.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.0%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)25.3%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.4%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)27.4%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)18.1%3.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)23.1%2.1

7. Max Muncy (R)28.0%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)23.7%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)29.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.7%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)24.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.0%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.7%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.9%3.0

6. Dane Myers (R)21.4%2.1

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.1%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)26.2%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB27.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.1%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.1%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.1%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)25.1%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)20.1%2.6

6. Evan Carter (L)21.0%2.0

7. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.6%2.0

8. Sam Haggerty (L)21.7%2.0

9. Josh Jung (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.5%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.5%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)21.7%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0

5. Lane Thomas (R)22.5%2.7

6. Jac Caglianone (L)23.1%2.0

7. Starling Marte (R)23.6%2.0

8. Tyler Tolbert (R)20.0%2.0

9. Isaac Collins (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)24.5%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)15.2%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)22.2%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.3%3.0

5. Heliot Ramos (R)26.4%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.2%2.2

7. Jerar Encarnacion (R)22.7%2.0

8. Harrison Bader (R)24.9%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.8%3.0

2. Oswald Peraza (R)24.6%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)30.3%3.0

5. Jeimer Candelario (L)25.4%2.8

6. Jo Adell (R)22.6%2.0

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.7%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luke Raley (L)26.3%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)29.6%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.0%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)16.9%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)20.1%3.0

6. J.P. Crawford (L)23.6%2.0

7. Cole Young (L)26.6%2.0

8. Gabe Speier (L)22.0%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)30.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)17.3%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)23.9%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)19.2%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.0%3.0

5. Bo Naylor (L)25.9%2.6

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)23.8%2.0

7. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.5%2.0

8. Gabriel Arias (R)28.5%2.0

9. Angel Martínez (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.4%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)22.0%3.0

3. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.9%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.9%3.0

5. Luis Torrens (R)22.3%3.0

6. Mark Vientos (R)20.8%2.5

7. Marcus Semien (R)24.9%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)23.6%2.0

9. Devin Williams (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)19.3%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)22.1%3.0

3. Scott Kingery (R)24.2%3.0

4. Carson Kelly (R)21.3%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)20.9%2.7

6. Dansby Swanson (R)24.3%2.0

7. Matt Shaw (R)20.3%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.8%2.0

9. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.1%3.0

2. Miguel Rojas (R)19.8%3.0

3. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.1%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)19.6%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)23.1%2.8

6. Alex Call (R)20.0%2.0

7. Santiago Espinal (R)20.9%2.0

8. Will Smith (R)22.9%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)17.9%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)19.9%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)17.6%3.0

4. CJ Kayfus (L)25.0%3.0

5. Chase DeLauter (L)21.4%2.9

6. Rhys Hoskins (R)23.3%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)26.0%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)24.0%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)24.0%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)19.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.6%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.4%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)31.6%2.8

6. Daulton Varsho (L)22.9%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)15.3%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.1%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Owen Caissie (L)26.3%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)20.6%3.0

3. Jakob Marsee (L)23.6%3.0

4. Otto Lopez (R)17.9%3.0

5. Griffin Conine (L)20.4%3.0

6. Graham Pauley (L)20.6%2.2

7. Xavier Edwards (R)19.7%2.0

8. Liam Hicks (L)19.2%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.5%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)19.8%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.5%3.0

4. Billy Cook (R)31.9%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)20.9%3.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)19.3%2.2

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)21.6%2.0

8. Henry Davis (R)22.6%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)26.6%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)28.6%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)22.4%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)23.9%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.8%2.6

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.1%2.0

7. Caleb Durbin (R)21.9%2.0

8. Marcelo Mayer (L)26.3%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)23.0%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (R)19.2%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)24.8%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)24.2%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)23.8%2.9

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)25.2%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)21.9%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (R)19.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kody Clemens (L)27.1%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)23.7%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)16.2%3.0

4. Matt Wallner (L)32.8%3.0

5. Ryan Jeffers (R)25.7%3.0

6. Trevor Larnach (L)19.9%2.1

7. Josh Bell (L)22.8%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)22.9%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.3%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)25.4%3.0

4. Samuel Basallo (L)22.3%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.0%3.0

6. Dylan Beavers (L)22.6%2.2

7. Leody Taveras (L)22.5%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.3%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.6 BF

Expected batters faced17.6

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.0%2.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)27.1%2.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)18.6%2.0

4. Ben Rice (L)22.9%2.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)22.3%2.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.2%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)22.6%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)20.6%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)28.8%1.6

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.6%3.0

2. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.4%3.0

3. Luis García Jr. (L)18.1%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)16.7%3.0

5. Joey Wiemer (R)22.5%2.4

6. CJ Abrams (L)18.0%2.0

7. Brady House (R)27.0%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)19.7%2.0

9. Curtis Mead (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.1%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.8%3.0

4. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.2%3.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)19.9%3.0

6. Ozzie Albies (L)19.3%2.1

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.2%2.0

8. Austin Riley (R)25.9%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.3%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.9%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.6%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)24.0%3.0

5. Ramón Urías (R)24.1%3.0

6. Thomas Saggese (R)23.6%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)25.5%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)24.3%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.3% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Troy Johnston (L)23.1%3.0

2. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.8%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)21.2%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)26.9%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)23.7%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)25.4%2.7

7. Jordan Beck (R)22.9%2.0

8. Brenton Doyle (R)25.1%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Michael Busch (L)21.1%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)15.5%3.0

3. Ian Happ (L)25.8%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.4%3.0

5. Nico Hoerner (R)16.8%3.0

6. Dansby Swanson (R)23.6%2.1

7. Dylan Carlson (L)25.5%2.0

8. Matt Shaw (R)20.3%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)20.8%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.1%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)23.3%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)20.3%3.0

5. Miguel Andujar (R)19.2%2.7

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.0

7. Ty France (R)22.9%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.1%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.0% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jahmai Jones (R)21.2%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)17.7%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)18.0%3.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)21.0%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)22.4%3.0

6. Dillon Dingler (R)25.4%2.1

7. Parker Meadows (L)22.2%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.3%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.1%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.0%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.6%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.0%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.4%2.4

6. Adolis García (R)25.2%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)19.0%2.0

8. Rafael Marchán (L)20.4%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)20.3%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.9%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)19.1%3.0

5. Jose Fernandez (R)20.8%2.0

6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)18.6%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)22.1%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.9%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.9%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.6%3.0

3. Chandler Simpson (L)15.4%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)21.9%3.0

5. Cedric Mullins (L)24.9%2.7

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.1%2.0

7. Richie Palacios (L)19.3%2.0

8. Jake Fraley (L)20.4%2.0

9. Nick Fortes (R)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)20.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.9%3.0

3. Carlos Correa (R)19.7%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)22.7%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)25.4%2.9

6. Yainer Diaz (R)21.9%2.0

7. Jake Meyers (R)23.5%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)28.7%2.0

9. Nick Allen (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, April 5, 2026

Eric Lauer (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, April 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K, with Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Eric Lauer

Eric Lauer (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against CWS. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CWS has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) (99) — about 6.5 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Jack Leiter (TEX) (91) — about 6.0 K vs CIN: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Chase Burns (CIN) (90) — about 5.9 K vs TEX: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) (80) — about 5.7 K vs KC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kodai Senga (NYM) (73) — about 5.8 K vs SF: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Lance McCullers Jr. is the arm to exploit it (99).
SEA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — George Klassen is the arm to exploit it (56).
BOS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Walker Buehler is the arm to exploit it (41).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Taijuan Walker is the arm to exploit it (25).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.0 strikeouts. Top play Eric Lauer punched out 0. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, April 5, 2026)?: Eric Lauer (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against CWS. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, April 5, 2026: Eric Lauer (~6.1 K), Lance McCullers Jr. (~6.5 K), Jack Leiter (~6.0 K), Chase Burns (~5.9 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, April 5, 2026?: Eric Lauer punched out 0.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.