Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, April 4, 2026)?

Logan Henderson (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against KC. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, April 4, 2026: Logan Henderson (~5.9 K), Carmen Mlodzinski (~5.8 K), Michael Soroka (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~5.7 K), Randy Vásquez (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, April 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, April 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

1:10 PM ET

STLaway

DEThomeTop matchup42 Final · 3–6

TORaway

CWShomeTop matchup39 Final · 5–2

MILaway

KChomeTop matchup62 Final · 10–5

LADaway

WSHhomeTop matchup67 Final · 11–0

HOUaway

ATHhomeTop matchup66 Final · 2–3

BALaway

PIThomeTop matchup85 Final · 3–2

SDaway

BOShomeTop matchup74 Final · 2–0

CINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup59 Final · 7–9

MIAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup66 Final · 2–8

MILaway

KChomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–1

TBaway

MINhomeTop matchup40 Final · 1–2

ATLaway

AZhomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–1

PHIaway

COLhomeTop matchup81 Final · 9–0

NYMaway

SFhomeTop matchup55 Final · 0–1

SEAaway

LAAhomeTop matchup65

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.5% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB29.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)17.4%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.8%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.0%3.0

5. Jac Caglianone (L)21.4%3.0

6. Jonathan India (R)18.8%2.0

7. Carter Jensen (L)26.5%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)22.5%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.1%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)25.2%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)19.5%3.0

5. Dylan Beavers (L)22.1%2.7

6. Coby Mayo (R)26.4%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)23.4%2.0

8. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.2%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.2% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB28.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.0%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.8%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)24.8%3.0

5. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.9%2.7

6. Ozzie Albies (L)19.1%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)19.7%2.0

8. Dominic Smith (L)20.8%2.0

9. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Tyler Freeman (R)20.3%3.0

2. Victor Vodnik (R)22.0%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)23.4%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.7%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)21.1%3.0

6. Willi Castro (R)23.0%2.2

7. Troy Johnston (L)21.6%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.7%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)27.5%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)29.5%3.0

3. Aroldis Chapman (L)22.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)24.7%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.7%3.0

6. Masataka Yoshida (L)19.5%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)25.1%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.2%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.6%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)19.0%3.0

3. Brady House (R)24.7%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)17.4%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)17.7%3.0

6. Curtis Mead (R)22.5%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.3%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)19.1%2.0

9. José Tena (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Griffin Conine (L)21.1%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.8%3.0

3. Jakob Marsee (L)22.1%3.0

4. Otto Lopez (R)18.4%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.8%2.6

6. Liam Hicks (L)19.2%2.0

7. Xavier Edwards (R)20.3%2.0

8. Owen Caissie (L)26.3%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)29.3%3.0

2. Austin Wynns (R)23.5%3.0

3. Carlos Cortes (L)21.8%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.4%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)18.8%2.1

6. Darell Hernaiz (R)21.8%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)27.8%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)23.4%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)29.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.7%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.2%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.0%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.2%3.0

5. Adam Frazier (L)21.7%2.6

6. Jo Adell (R)23.2%2.0

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.3%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)20.4%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (L)19.8%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)17.5%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)22.8%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)26.8%3.0

6. Jake Bauers (L)23.3%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)21.1%2.0

8. Brandon Lockridge (R)20.5%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)23.5%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)24.1%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)27.0%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.5%3.0

5. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)17.7%3.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.8%2.0

7. Spencer Steer (R)22.8%2.0

8. Dane Myers (R)21.4%2.0

9. Jose Trevino (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.2%3.0

2. Ramón Laureano (R)21.7%3.0

3. Miguel Andujar (R)18.6%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)20.9%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.7%2.8

6. Freddy Fermin (R)22.3%2.0

7. Ty France (R)23.7%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.3%2.0

9. Jackson Merrill (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Allen (R)23.0%3.0

2. Cam Smith (R)22.8%3.0

3. Brice Matthews (R)26.1%3.0

4. Shay Whitcomb (R)24.0%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)20.4%2.7

6. Joey Loperfido (L)24.6%2.0

7. Yainer Diaz (R)20.9%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)21.7%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)21.1%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)28.6%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)19.4%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)21.4%3.0

5. Randal Grichuk (R)18.0%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.3%2.0

7. J.C. Escarra (L)21.0%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)23.0%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)27.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.8%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.7%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.3%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)21.3%2.8

6. Konnor Griffin (R)20.8%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)22.7%2.0

8. Nick Gonzales (R)19.6%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)19.1%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)20.8%3.0

3. Jorge Polanco (L)18.3%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)24.1%3.0

5. Mark Vientos (R)22.2%2.8

6. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.5%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)24.7%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)23.2%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)17.9%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.9%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)17.4%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.8%3.0

5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)31.5%3.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)23.4%2.0

7. Jose Fernandez (R)21.4%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)23.3%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.0%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)18.5%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)23.2%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.3%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)21.1%2.7

6. Josh Smith (L)18.7%2.0

7. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.1%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)20.8%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.7%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)19.7%3.0

3. Miguel Rojas (R)20.2%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)16.4%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)20.0%2.7

6. Max Muncy (L)24.2%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)18.2%2.0

8. Alex Freeland (L)23.5%2.0

9. Alex Call (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)21.6%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)17.3%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)18.8%3.0

4. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.5%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)23.0%2.9

6. Dillon Dingler (R)24.2%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.7%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.5%2.0

9. Parker Meadows (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.7%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)25.3%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)26.4%3.0

4. Luis Arraez (L)16.0%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)23.2%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)17.7%2.0

7. Jared Oliva (R)22.0%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)22.0%2.0

9. Jerar Encarnacion (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.8%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Nolan Gorman (L)25.0%3.0

5. Jordan Walker (R)23.9%2.8

6. Thomas Saggese (R)23.5%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)26.9%2.0

8. Ramón Urías (R)24.1%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)17.4%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.8%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.0%3.0

5. Jac Caglianone (L)21.4%2.6

6. Carter Jensen (L)26.5%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.5%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)19.1%2.0

9. Lane Thomas (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.5%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)21.4%3.0

2. Luke Keaschall (R)21.1%3.0

3. Josh Bell (R)24.0%3.0

4. Matt Wallner (L)23.9%3.0

5. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.0%2.8

6. Victor Caratini (R)19.5%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)22.4%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (R)24.2%2.0

9. James Outman (L)33.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.0 BF

Expected batters faced18.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)23.7%2.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)19.9%2.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.9%2.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.0%2.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.8%2.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.3%2.0

7. Addison Barger (L)24.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.3%2.0

9. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)20.4%3.0

2. Garrett Mitchell (L)26.8%3.0

3. Luis Matos (R)15.3%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)23.3%3.0

5. Gary Sánchez (R)23.5%3.0

6. Brandon Lockridge (R)20.5%2.1

7. David Hamilton (L)20.1%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (L)22.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.6%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.3%3.0

3. Jake Fraley (L)21.4%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)22.9%3.0

5. Cedric Mullins (L)24.9%2.7

6. Chandler Simpson (L)16.2%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)22.3%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.8%2.0

9. Richie Palacios (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luke Raley (L)25.1%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)29.8%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)25.1%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)17.7%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)19.8%2.9

6. Rob Refsnyder (R)26.2%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)23.2%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)25.1%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)29.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.0 BF

Expected batters faced16.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)21.9%2.0

2. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.2%2.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)21.4%2.0

4. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.8%2.0

5. Austin Hays (R)24.0%2.0

6. Colson Montgomery (L)21.7%2.0

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.5%2.0

8. Reese McGuire (L)24.2%1.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)24.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.2 BF

Expected batters faced16.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.1%2.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.4%2.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.2%2.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)17.8%2.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.1%2.0

6. Adolis García (R)22.7%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)27.0%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.7%1.3

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, April 4, 2026

Logan Henderson (MIL) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, April 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K, with Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Logan Henderson

Logan Henderson (MIL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against KC. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and KC has been around league average, going down 20% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) (85) — about 5.8 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (85) — about 5.7 K vs ATL: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (81) — about 5.7 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Randy Vásquez (SD) (74) — about 5.7 K vs BOS: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) (67) — about 5.3 K vs WSH: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Tatsuya Imai is the arm to exploit it (66).
SEA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Jack Kochanowicz is the arm to exploit it (28).
BOS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Randy Vásquez is the arm to exploit it (74).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Emerson Hancock is the arm to exploit it (65).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.6 strikeouts. Top play Logan Henderson punched out 3. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, April 4, 2026)?: Logan Henderson (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against KC. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, April 4, 2026: Logan Henderson (~5.9 K), Carmen Mlodzinski (~5.8 K), Michael Soroka (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~5.7 K), Randy Vásquez (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, April 4, 2026?: Logan Henderson punched out 3.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.