Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, April 16, 2026)?

Jack Leiter (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against ATH. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, April 16, 2026: Jack Leiter (~6.3 K), Kris Bubic (~6.1 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.9 K), Landen Roupp (~5.6 K), Steven Matz (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, April 16, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, April 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 8–7

WSHaway

PIThomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–0

SFaway

CINhomeTop matchup76 Final · 9–10

KCaway

DEThomeTop matchup87 Final · 11–4

LAAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup55 Final · 1–2

TORaway

MILhomeTop matchup44 Final · 5–3

TBaway

CWShomeTop matchup74 Final · 9–6

TEXaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–4

BALaway

CLEhomeTop matchup70 Final · 3–2

COLaway

HOUhomeTop matchup49 Final · 2–5

SEAaway

SDhomeTop matchup47

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB27.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zack Gelof (R)25.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)24.8%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)28.1%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)20.5%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)16.2%2.5

6. Denzel Clarke (R)31.5%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.2%2.0

8. Austin Wynns (R)23.2%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.2% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB27.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)22.4%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)19.5%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)22.7%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)20.4%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)23.8%2.9

6. Colt Keith (L)22.3%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)20.7%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (R)21.1%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB29.5%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.5%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)23.1%3.0

3. Brady House (R)26.1%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)16.7%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)17.0%2.7

6. Jacob Young (R)20.2%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.2%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)16.0%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)19.8%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)24.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.8%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.3%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)23.6%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)25.4%2.0

7. Rece Hinds (R)25.9%2.0

8. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)16.6%2.0

9. P.J. Higgins (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Miguel Vargas (R)20.4%3.0

2. Chase Meidroth (R)22.2%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)26.8%3.0

4. Everson Pereira (R)26.6%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)20.6%2.5

6. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%2.0

7. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.6%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)24.4%2.0

9. Sam Antonacci (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.0%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.9%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.1%3.0

4. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)23.3%2.7

6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)20.9%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)21.4%2.0

8. Leody Taveras (R)24.7%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)11.2%3.0

2. Willy Adames (R)24.4%3.0

3. Rafael Devers (L)25.4%3.0

4. Matt Chapman (R)19.3%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)17.4%3.0

6. Heliot Ramos (R)26.2%2.1

7. Casey Schmitt (R)23.5%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)20.6%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)23.7%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.8%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)19.1%3.0

4. Oswald Peraza (R)24.4%3.0

5. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.8%3.0

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.5%3.0

7. Travis d'Arnaud (R)23.4%2.1

8. Josh Lowe (L)23.9%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.6%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)21.0%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.1%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.2%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)29.1%2.2

6. Jonathan India (R)21.8%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.0%2.0

8. Lane Thomas (R)24.8%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.2%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)24.7%3.0

3. Jake Burger (R)26.2%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)21.9%3.0

5. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.5%2.9

6. Joc Pederson (L)25.6%2.0

7. Evan Carter (L)26.2%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)24.2%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.5 BF

Expected batters faced18.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.4%2.5

2. Jake McCarthy (L)19.2%2.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)21.6%2.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)28.3%2.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)22.5%2.0

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.4%2.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)21.9%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)25.5%2.0

9. Brenton Doyle (R)30.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)23.1%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.4%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)18.3%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)19.8%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.6%2.4

6. Gavin Sheets (L)21.5%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)19.6%2.0

8. Luis Campusano (R)20.4%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Davis Schneider (R)25.8%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)20.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.8%3.0

4. Eloy Jiménez (R)22.5%2.3

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.0%2.0

6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.9%2.0

7. Andrés Giménez (L)18.4%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)14.2%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)17.6%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)26.4%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.6%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)17.9%2.5

5. Randy Arozarena (R)20.4%2.0

6. Connor Joe (R)22.1%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)19.5%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)27.0%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Lockridge (R)22.9%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.4%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.9%3.0

4. Sal Frelick (L)19.9%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)20.8%2.8

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)26.1%2.0

7. Greg Jones (R)22.0%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)21.4%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.2%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)18.5%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.1%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.8%3.0

5. George Valera (L)22.2%3.0

6. Angel Martínez (L)19.0%2.2

7. Juan Brito (L)20.3%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.6%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (R)18.7%3.0

2. Ryan O'Hearn (L)17.6%3.0

3. Oneil Cruz (L)24.9%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)22.3%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)21.6%2.5

6. Brandon Lowe (L)26.3%2.0

7. Henry Davis (R)22.0%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)25.0%2.0

9. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.6 BF

Expected batters faced16.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)23.2%2.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)24.6%2.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)18.6%2.0

4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)25.6%2.0

5. Ben Rice (L)25.5%2.0

6. Amed Rosario (R)18.6%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.0%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)26.5%1.6

9. J.C. Escarra (L)23.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.4%2.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)24.0%2.0

3. Cedric Mullins (L)22.8%2.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.2%2.0

5. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.1%1.7

6. Richie Palacios (L)17.7%1.0

7. Jake Fraley (L)20.0%1.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)27.1%1.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)20.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.7 BF

Expected batters faced14.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)17.4%2.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.3%2.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.7%2.0

4. Carlos Correa (R)17.0%2.0

5. Nick Allen (R)24.0%2.0

6. Joey Loperfido (L)28.1%1.7

7. Cam Smith (R)22.1%1.0

8. Taylor Trammell (L)27.2%1.0

9. Yainer Diaz (R)17.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, April 16, 2026

Jack Leiter (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, April 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K, with Kris Bubic (KC) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against ATH. He's missing bats at a 27% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and ATH has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Kris Bubic (KC) (87) — about 6.1 K vs DET: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (79) — about 5.9 K vs WSH: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (76) — about 5.6 K vs CIN: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Steven Matz (TB) (74) — about 5.7 K vs CWS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (70) — about 5.5 K vs BAL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Ryan Weiss is the arm to exploit it (49).
TEX is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jacob Lopez is the arm to exploit it (52).
ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jack Leiter is the arm to exploit it (100).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Steven Matz is the arm to exploit it (74).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.9 strikeouts. Top play Jack Leiter punched out 3. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, April 16, 2026)?: Jack Leiter (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against ATH. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, April 16, 2026: Jack Leiter (~6.3 K), Kris Bubic (~6.1 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.9 K), Landen Roupp (~5.6 K), Steven Matz (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, April 16, 2026?: Jack Leiter punched out 3.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.