Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, April 26, 2026)?

Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against COL. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, April 26, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.2 K), Chris Sale (~5.8 K), Reid Detmers (~5.7 K), Chase Dollander (~5.1 K), Spencer Arrighetti (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, April 26, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, April 26, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 5–3

BOSaway

BALhomeTop matchup50 Final · 2–6

PHIaway

ATLhomeTop matchup74 Final · 2–4

CLEaway

TORhomeTop matchup28 Final · 8–3

DETaway

CINhomeTop matchup50 Final · 3–1

COLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–4

MINaway

TBhomeTop matchup11 Final · 3–0

COLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup65 Final · 2–1

WSHaway

CWShomeTop matchup31 Final · 4–7

NYYaway

HOUhomeTop matchup63 Final · 0–5

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup44 Final · 3–2

SEAaway

STLhomeTop matchup45 Final · 2–1

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup48 Final · 7–12

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup50 Final · 3–6

MIAaway

SFhomeTop matchup56 Final · 9–11

LAAaway

KChomeTop matchup67 Final · 0–6

CHCaway

LADhomeTop matchup60

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB30.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)25.6%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.4%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.5%3.0

4. Troy Johnston (L)22.5%3.0

5. Kyle Karros (R)19.1%2.9

6. Brett Sullivan (L)23.1%2.0

7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.2%2.0

8. Jake McCarthy (L)19.1%2.0

9. Brenton Doyle (R)28.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)17.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.0%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.4%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)26.5%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)23.2%3.0

6. Alec Bohm (R)17.5%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)18.6%2.0

8. Dylan Moore (R)26.2%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Lane Thomas (R)19.6%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.7%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)25.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.1%3.0

5. Jac Caglianone (L)25.4%3.0

6. Carter Jensen (L)18.8%2.4

7. Nick Loftin (R)19.9%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)24.6%2.0

9. Maikel Garcia (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB30.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)21.5%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)17.6%3.0

3. Francisco Alvarez (R)20.8%2.6

4. Brett Baty (L)25.3%2.0

5. MJ Melendez (L)29.0%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.6%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)19.3%2.0

8. Ronny Mauricio (L)24.4%2.0

9. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.8%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)23.5%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)25.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0

6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)23.0%2.6

7. J.C. Escarra (L)22.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)25.0%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)20.2%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)23.3%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.2%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)17.1%3.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)18.4%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)24.4%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)20.2%2.0

8. Eli White (R)20.5%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB28.7%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.5%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)18.4%3.0

3. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.9%3.0

4. Andy Pages (R)21.9%3.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)21.2%2.5

6. Alex Freeland (R)25.2%2.0

7. Dalton Rushing (L)24.1%2.0

8. Santiago Espinal (R)17.8%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)19.8%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)22.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)20.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)15.3%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.3%2.6

6. Owen Caissie (L)31.2%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)27.2%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)23.6%2.0

9. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)21.1%3.0

3. Oswald Peraza (R)22.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.8%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.3%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.3%2.1

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)24.4%2.0

8. Travis d'Arnaud (R)24.7%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)25.6%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)29.1%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)21.4%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)18.3%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)18.5%2.2

6. Kyle Karros (R)19.1%2.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)22.5%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.2%2.0

9. Brenton Doyle (R)28.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.6%3.0

2. Ketel Marte (L)19.3%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.9%3.0

4. Jorge Barrosa (L)30.8%3.0

5. James McCann (R)27.3%2.8

6. Jose Fernandez (R)22.9%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)20.6%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)21.8%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)26.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.1%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.7%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.3%2.4

6. Spencer Steer (R)26.6%2.0

7. Dane Myers (R)22.2%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)29.0%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)27.8%3.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)23.4%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.1%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)18.8%3.0

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.2%2.0

7. Caleb Durbin (R)15.6%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)19.7%2.0

9. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)25.2%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.4%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.1%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.7%3.0

5. Zack Gelof (R)26.4%2.8

6. Jacob Wilson (R)14.0%2.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)16.4%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)24.5%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.2%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.3%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.1%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)27.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.9%2.2

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.0%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.4%2.0

8. Ramón Urías (R)19.9%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.8%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)16.0%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)23.4%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)22.9%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.6%2.5

6. Sal Frelick (L)15.6%2.0

7. Luis Rengifo (L)17.1%2.0

8. Joey Ortiz (R)20.8%2.0

9. Brandon Lockridge (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.6%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)20.3%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)9.5%3.0

4. Casey Schmitt (R)20.9%3.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)29.0%2.7

6. Heliot Ramos (R)24.4%2.0

7. Drew Gilbert (L)20.3%2.0

8. Christian Koss (R)20.3%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)18.5%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.5%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)18.6%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.9%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.6%2.4

6. Samuel Basallo (L)21.1%2.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.8%2.0

8. Dylan Beavers (L)20.5%2.0

9. Coby Mayo (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (R)17.6%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)23.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.9%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)20.8%2.8

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.5%2.0

6. Spencer Horwitz (L)21.7%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)25.6%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)26.3%2.0

9. Billy Cook (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)26.7%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)24.0%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)20.8%2.5

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.6%2.0

6. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)19.5%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.4%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.8% K/BF

vs LHB15.9%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.1%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.4%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.8%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.3%3.0

5. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.7%2.2

6. Mitch Garver (R)27.5%2.0

7. Connor Joe (R)20.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)22.2%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.2%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)16.7%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)18.0%3.0

3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.4%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)22.5%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.4%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.7%2.2

7. Matt Vierling (R)21.6%2.0

8. Javier Báez (R)21.0%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)19.6%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)17.4%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.3%3.0

4. Everson Pereira (R)24.3%3.0

5. Colson Montgomery (L)24.1%2.7

6. Sam Antonacci (L)20.4%2.0

7. Derek Hill (R)22.9%2.0

8. Drew Romo (R)22.6%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)16.8%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)16.9%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.8%3.0

4. George Valera (L)22.7%3.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.0%2.1

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.4%2.0

7. Juan Brito (R)27.1%2.0

8. Chase DeLauter (L)18.0%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.3 BF

Expected batters faced19.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.9%3.0

2. Andrew McCutchen (R)29.1%2.3

3. Corey Seager (L)21.5%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.4%2.0

5. Evan Carter (L)21.5%2.0

6. Jake Burger (R)25.4%2.0

7. Josh Smith (L)16.7%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)25.1%2.0

9. Sam Haggerty (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)13.9%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)20.8%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.6%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.7%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.2%3.0

6. Lenyn Sosa (R)18.9%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)16.9%2.0

8. Davis Schneider (R)27.2%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)20.5%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)14.9%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.9%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.5%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)24.0%2.6

6. Brice Matthews (R)26.2%2.0

7. Christian Vázquez (R)20.0%2.0

8. Daniel Johnson (L)22.4%2.0

9. Braden Shewmake (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.4 BF

Expected batters faced13.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)25.4%2.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)21.5%2.0

3. Daylen Lile (L)21.4%2.0

4. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.9%2.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)25.3%1.4

6. Joey Wiemer (R)28.2%1.0

7. Luis García Jr. (L)23.2%1.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.9%1.0

9. Drew Millas (R)28.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brooks Lee (L)20.5%2.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)20.1%2.0

3. Josh Bell (L)19.4%2.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.7%2.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)26.1%1.7

6. Luke Keaschall (R)18.9%1.0

7. Matt Wallner (L)27.6%1.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)24.9%1.0

9. James Outman (L)27.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)15.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)19.9%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)23.8%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)20.5%3.0

5. Carson Kelly (R)18.5%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)21.1%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)23.3%2.0

8. Matt Shaw (R)20.3%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.7%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.0%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.3%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.3%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.2%2.9

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.3%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%2.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)25.0%2.0

9. Nick Fortes (R)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate14.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB14.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)20.0%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)20.7%3.0

3. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)22.9%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)20.4%2.4

6. Brett Baty (L)23.6%2.0

7. MJ Melendez (L)19.5%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)27.0%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, April 26, 2026

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, April 26, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K, with Chris Sale (ATL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Chris Sale (ATL) (74) — about 5.8 K vs PHI: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Reid Detmers (LAA) (67) — about 5.7 K vs KC: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Chase Dollander (COL) (65) — about 5.1 K vs NYM: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) (63) — about 5.6 K vs NYY: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) (63) — about 5.1 K vs ATL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Seth Lugo is the arm to exploit it (54).
WSH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Bryan Hudson is the arm to exploit it (15).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Keider Montero is the arm to exploit it (50).
SEA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael McGreevy is the arm to exploit it (32).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.8 strikeouts. Top play Nolan McLean punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, April 26, 2026)?: Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against COL. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, April 26, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.2 K), Chris Sale (~5.8 K), Reid Detmers (~5.7 K), Chase Dollander (~5.1 K), Spencer Arrighetti (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, April 26, 2026?: Nolan McLean punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.