Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, April 27, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.1 K against BOS. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, April 27, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.1 K), Matthew Boyd (~5.5 K), Connor Prielipp (~5.4 K), Parker Messick (~5.3 K), Max Fried (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, April 27, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, April 27, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 3–2

TBaway

CLEhomeTop matchup56 Final · 4–2

STLaway

PIThomeTop matchup44 Final · 5–0

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–11

SEAaway

MINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 7–8

LAAaway

CWShomeTop matchup21 Final · 4–2

NYYaway

TEXhomeTop matchup54 Final · 7–9

CHCaway

SDhomeTop matchup60 Final · 4–5

MIAaway

LADhomeTop matchup48

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate32.2% K/BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB32.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.3%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)27.5%3.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)24.2%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.9%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)25.1%2.7

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.0%2.0

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.1%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)27.9%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB26.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)22.8%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)23.9%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)22.9%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.8%2.8

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.2%2.0

6. Miguel Andujar (R)20.6%2.0

7. Ty France (R)23.0%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.2%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Rob Refsnyder (R)21.7%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)23.2%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.2%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)21.6%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)20.7%2.3

6. J.P. Crawford (L)20.5%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)22.3%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)19.6%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB26.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.4%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.8%3.0

3. Richie Palacios (L)23.1%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)20.5%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.7%2.9

6. Chandler Simpson (L)16.5%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)22.4%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.1%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.2%3.0

2. Josh Jung (R)19.8%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)23.1%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)25.0%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)24.0%3.0

6. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.3%3.0

7. Josh Smith (L)28.5%2.3

8. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.6%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)18.9%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)22.1%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)20.8%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)15.2%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.2%3.0

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.9%2.6

7. Esteury Ruiz (R)26.0%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)16.1%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.4%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)16.8%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.9%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)20.7%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)28.9%2.7

6. Max Muncy (L)21.8%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)21.7%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)24.9%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Billy Cook (R)24.4%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.8%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.4%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.6%3.0

5. Marcell Ozuna (R)27.3%2.7

6. Nick Gonzales (R)17.5%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)25.5%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)21.5%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.5%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)23.1%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)24.6%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.2%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.7%2.8

6. Jasson Domínguez (L)25.1%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)18.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)25.3%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)26.0%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)19.9%3.0

3. James Outman (L)25.9%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)19.2%3.0

5. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.9%2.5

6. Kody Clemens (L)26.0%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)19.1%2.0

8. Matt Wallner (L)26.6%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)14.3%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)24.0%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)17.1%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.7%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.1%2.9

6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)19.5%2.0

7. Matt Shaw (R)21.8%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)21.2%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)16.5%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)16.5%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)17.2%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.0%3.0

5. Chase DeLauter (L)18.3%2.0

6. George Valera (L)22.7%2.0

7. Daniel Schneemann (L)27.3%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)22.2%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.8% K/BF

vs LHB29.2%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.5 BF

Expected batters faced13.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.0%2.0

2. Victor Scott II (L)21.1%2.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)19.4%2.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)27.1%2.0

5. George Soriano (R)22.0%1.5

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.3%1.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.1%1.0

8. Ramón Urías (R)21.7%1.0

9. Pedro Pagés (R)24.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Daulton Varsho (L)20.0%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)16.6%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.8%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.6%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)23.8%2.4

6. Eloy Jiménez (R)19.0%2.0

7. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.6%2.0

8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.8% K/BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.7%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)26.4%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.6%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.3%3.0

5. Everson Pereira (R)24.4%3.0

6. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%2.5

7. Chase Meidroth (R)19.7%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)23.7%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB14.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)24.5%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.9%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.0%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)22.3%2.9

5. Jo Adell (R)19.0%2.0

6. Oswald Peraza (R)24.2%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)22.3%2.0

8. Adam Frazier (L)22.1%2.0

9. Sebastián Rivero (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, April 27, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, April 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.1 K, with Matthew Boyd (CHC) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.1 K against BOS. He's missing bats at a 32% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and BOS has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Matthew Boyd (CHC) (60) — about 5.5 K vs SD: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) (58) — about 5.4 K vs SEA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (56) — about 5.3 K vs TB: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Max Fried (NYY) (54) — about 5.6 K vs TEX: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) (48) — about 5.1 K vs MIA: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

TEX is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Max Fried is the arm to exploit it (54).
MIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Luis Castillo is the arm to exploit it (42).
BOS is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (100).
NYY is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jack Leiter is the arm to exploit it (44).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.2 strikeouts. Top play Dylan Cease punched out 5. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, April 27, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.1 K against BOS. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, April 27, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.1 K), Matthew Boyd (~5.5 K), Connor Prielipp (~5.4 K), Parker Messick (~5.3 K), Max Fried (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, April 27, 2026?: Dylan Cease punched out 5.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.