Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 28, 2026)?

Payton Tolle (BOS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against TOR. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 28, 2026: Payton Tolle (~6.0 K), Shohei Ohtani (~5.8 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.8 K), Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, April 28, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 1–0

TBaway

CLEhomeTop matchup30 Final · 3–5

HOUaway

BALhomeTop matchup42 Final · 2–7

COLaway

CINhomeTop matchup97 Final · 11–7

STLaway

PIThomeTop matchup75 Final · 0–7

SFaway

PHIhomeTop matchup61 Final · 0–3

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–8

WSHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup26 Final · 2–5

DETaway

ATLhomeTop matchup62 Final · 7–1

SEAaway

MINhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–5

LAAaway

CWShomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–13

AZaway

MILhomeTop matchup36 Final · 3–2

NYYaway

TEXhomeTop matchup97 Final · 4–1

KCaway

ATHhomeTop matchup54 Final · 8–3

CHCaway

SDhomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–1

MIAaway

LADhomeTop matchup98

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB29.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Myles Straw (R)19.5%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)16.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.6%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.6%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.0%2.9

6. Jesús Sánchez (L)23.7%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)26.6%2.0

8. Tyler Heineman (R)22.3%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB29.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)18.6%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)21.4%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)21.9%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)15.0%3.0

5. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.3%3.0

6. Connor Norby (R)27.9%2.0

7. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.7%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)15.7%2.0

9. Graham Pauley (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB28.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.7%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)23.9%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.3%2.9

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.2%2.0

6. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.8%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)19.3%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.2%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.9%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.3%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)29.2%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.1%3.0

5. Tyler Freeman (R)17.5%2.7

6. Troy Johnston (L)21.9%2.0

7. Willi Castro (L)25.9%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.6%2.0

9. Jordan Beck (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.9%3.0

2. Josh Jung (R)20.2%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.8%3.0

4. Joc Pederson (L)24.0%3.0

5. Jake Burger (R)26.0%2.6

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.4%2.0

7. Josh Smith (L)16.0%2.0

8. Andrew McCutchen (R)29.6%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)27.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.7%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.2%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.4%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.1%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)24.1%2.6

6. Luke Raley (L)29.0%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)27.2%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)23.4%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)25.8%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)20.2%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)22.0%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)18.2%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)25.7%2.9

6. Victor Caratini (L)19.3%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)18.6%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)25.0%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Derek Hill (R)26.5%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)25.5%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.7%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.8%3.0

5. Austin Hays (R)26.3%3.0

6. Sam Antonacci (L)15.1%2.1

7. Chase Meidroth (R)21.6%2.0

8. Drew Romo (L)22.8%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)27.0%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)20.2%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.1%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.0%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.4%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.3%2.2

7. Josh Lowe (L)25.3%2.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)25.3%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.3%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.8%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.3%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.6%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.3%2.1

7. Nathan Church (L)23.0%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)19.6%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)28.1%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.2%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)24.6%3.0

4. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.7%3.0

5. Ty France (R)16.4%3.0

6. Nick Castellanos (R)26.0%2.3

7. Luis Campusano (R)18.7%2.0

8. Bryce Johnson (L)24.3%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)20.5%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)23.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.8%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)16.9%3.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)19.6%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)24.0%2.1

7. Kyle Farmer (R)21.2%2.0

8. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.3%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.1%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)20.7%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)14.5%3.0

4. Casey Schmitt (R)21.4%3.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)24.1%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)24.8%2.5

7. Heliot Ramos (R)25.3%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.0%2.0

9. Jerar Encarnacion (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.9%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)27.0%3.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)24.7%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.1%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)25.4%3.0

6. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.7%2.0

7. Carlos Narváez (R)27.8%2.0

8. Marcelo Mayer (L)18.6%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)17.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)24.8%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)27.9%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.0%3.0

5. Lawrence Butler (L)25.1%2.9

6. Carlos Cortes (L)20.4%2.0

7. Zack Gelof (R)24.5%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.6%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.9%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.6%3.0

3. Michael Massey (L)19.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.8%3.0

5. Jac Caglianone (L)24.5%2.8

6. Starling Marte (R)22.5%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)26.8%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.5%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)20.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)14.6%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.1%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)19.8%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)21.1%3.0

6. Yainer Diaz (R)19.1%2.9

7. Dustin Harris (L)21.3%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)23.4%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)19.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.5%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.6%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)25.8%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)19.5%2.9

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.1%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)18.9%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)20.2%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Greg Jones (L)25.4%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)15.7%3.0

3. Luis Rengifo (L)16.5%3.0

4. Tyler Black (L)24.4%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)23.2%3.0

6. Brandon Lockridge (R)23.7%2.4

7. Blake Perkins (L)26.8%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)22.2%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)14.1%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)18.8%3.0

3. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.3%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)26.1%2.2

5. Michael Busch (L)24.9%2.0

6. Carson Kelly (R)21.4%2.0

7. Alex Bregman (R)17.5%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.7%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)15.7%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)15.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)16.2%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.7%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.9%3.0

6. Angel Martínez (L)25.2%2.5

7. Travis Bazzana (L)22.0%2.0

8. George Valera (L)20.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.2%3.0

2. Nick Yorke (R)21.0%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)23.6%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.6%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.7%2.7

6. Spencer Horwitz (L)17.6%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)24.1%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)21.9%2.0

9. Marcell Ozuna (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.2% K/BF

vs LHB15.3%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)21.1%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)17.8%3.0

3. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.8%3.0

4. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.0%3.0

5. Mark Vientos (R)23.8%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)24.8%2.1

7. Marcus Semien (R)20.6%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)18.7%2.0

9. Ronny Mauricio (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.5%3.0

2. Ben Williamson (R)21.5%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.5%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)14.9%3.0

5. Jake Fraley (L)21.8%2.5

6. Cedric Mullins (L)21.3%2.0

7. Nick Fortes (R)18.4%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)18.1%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)22.2%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)20.9%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)26.3%2.9

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.4%2.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)20.5%2.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.8%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.8%2.0

8. TJ Friedl (L)19.9%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.6%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.8%3.0

3. Brady House (R)28.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)16.4%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.1%3.0

6. Jacob Young (R)19.1%2.4

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.2%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)18.7%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dalton Rushing (L)24.0%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)16.3%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)19.2%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)20.2%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)21.0%2.6

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)28.7%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)21.4%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)22.3%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.1% K/BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.6%3.0

2. Jorge Barrosa (L)29.6%3.0

3. Aramis Garcia (R)23.8%3.0

4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.2%2.4

5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.6%2.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)22.4%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)21.8%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)21.2%2.0

9. James McCann (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.9%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.9%3.0

3. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.4%3.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)17.9%2.1

5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.6%2.0

6. Riley Greene (L)25.6%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)23.2%2.0

8. Colt Keith (L)21.8%2.0

9. Wenceel Pérez (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.6%2.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)19.0%2.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.0%2.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.4%2.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.6%2.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.6%1.1

7. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.7%1.0

8. Blaze Alexander (R)27.1%1.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Payton Tolle (BOS) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, April 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Payton Tolle

Payton Tolle (BOS) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against TOR. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TOR has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (98) — about 5.8 K vs MIA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) (97) — about 5.8 K vs NYY: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Chase Burns (CIN) (97) — about 6.0 K vs COL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (93) — about 5.9 K vs TEX: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Joe Ryan (MIN) (81) — about 5.6 K vs SEA: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

SEA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Joe Ryan is the arm to exploit it (81).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Davis Martin is the arm to exploit it (76).
COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Chase Burns is the arm to exploit it (97).
TEX is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cam Schlittler is the arm to exploit it (93).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.5 strikeouts. Top play Payton Tolle punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 28, 2026)?: Payton Tolle (BOS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against TOR. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 28, 2026: Payton Tolle (~6.0 K), Shohei Ohtani (~5.8 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.8 K), Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, April 28, 2026?: Payton Tolle punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.