Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 8, 2026)?

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against COL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 8, 2026: Jesús Luzardo (~6.9 K), Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Nolan McLean (~6.0 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, May 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 8, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 10–0

HOUaway

CINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 9–7

COLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–3

ATHaway

BALhomeTop matchup32 Final · 0–2

LAAaway

TORhomeTop matchup88 Final · 0–2

TBaway

BOShomeTop matchup29 Final · 3–2

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup45 Final · 4–6

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–4

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup53 Final · 12–8

SEAaway

CWShomeTop matchup64 Final · 0–6

NYYaway

MILhomeTop matchup81 Final · 7–1

CHCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup12 Final · 3–1

NYMaway

AZhomeTop matchup85 Final · 6–0

STLaway

SDhomeTop matchup47 Final · 1–3

ATLaway

LADhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–5

PITaway

SFhomeTop matchup53

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)27.3%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)18.1%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)20.1%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)30.5%3.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)29.0%3.0

6. Willi Castro (R)24.6%2.7

7. Troy Johnston (L)20.4%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.0%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.6%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)28.8%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.2%2.3

7. Josh Lowe (L)25.2%2.0

8. Omar Martinez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB30.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.5%3.0

2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.8%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)25.9%3.0

4. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)22.0%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%2.5

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.9%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.6%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)20.5%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.9% K/BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB29.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)20.5%3.0

2. Will Smith (R)21.5%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.6%3.0

4. Andy Pages (R)22.1%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.8%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.7%2.2

7. Hyeseong Kim (L)24.4%2.0

8. Max Muncy (L)22.1%2.0

9. Santiago Espinal (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate32.4% K/BF

vs LHB35.2%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)17.4%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)20.7%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)26.2%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.3%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.4%2.6

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)18.9%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)23.7%2.0

9. Amed Rosario (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.0% K/BF

vs LHB28.2%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.3%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.6%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.9%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.8%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.6%2.6

6. Jorge Mateo (R)22.6%2.0

7. Austin Riley (R)27.4%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.4%2.0

9. Kyle Farmer (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB27.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)22.0%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)18.5%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)18.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)20.3%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)19.9%2.7

6. Brooks Lee (R)20.2%2.0

7. Kody Clemens (L)22.2%2.0

8. Matt Wallner (L)25.9%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Randal Grichuk (R)20.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)30.1%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.5%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.1%3.0

5. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.5%2.9

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6%2.0

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)23.1%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)20.8%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Braden Shewmake (L)21.9%3.0

2. Shay Whitcomb (R)23.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.5%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)23.4%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)25.5%3.0

6. Brice Matthews (R)27.7%2.0

7. Zach Cole (L)23.5%2.0

8. Christian Vázquez (R)19.3%2.0

9. Nick Allen (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jared Triolo (R)19.8%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)25.3%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)23.5%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.3%3.0

5. Oneil Cruz (L)29.8%2.7

6. Konnor Griffin (R)25.9%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)20.6%2.0

8. Brandon Lowe (L)25.2%2.0

9. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.4%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)21.9%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.6%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.1%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.0%2.1

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.0%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%2.0

9. Zack Short (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)21.1%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.4%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.3%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.5%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)22.3%2.5

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.3%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)24.6%2.0

9. Will Benson (L)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.7%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.3%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)20.0%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.5%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.2%2.5

7. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.8%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.3%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Leo Rivas (L)27.5%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)27.5%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)17.3%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)25.4%2.7

6. J.P. Crawford (L)20.0%2.0

7. Luke Raley (L)29.6%2.0

8. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.2%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)22.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.7%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.2%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)28.5%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.2%2.0

8. César Prieto (L)22.9%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.9%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.9%3.0

3. Brady House (R)23.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)23.2%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)21.9%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)22.9%2.0

7. Joey Wiemer (R)28.2%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)20.2%2.0

9. Drew Millas (R)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.5%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.6%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.2%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)24.6%2.5

6. Willy Adames (R)27.7%2.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)26.9%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.5%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)18.3%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)16.6%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.0%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.3%2.8

5. David Fry (R)24.8%2.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)23.2%2.0

7. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.5%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)18.8%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.3%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.6%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.4%2.3

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.6%2.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.1%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0

8. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.6%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.1%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)19.5%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.2%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.6%3.0

5. Brett Harris (R)23.9%2.7

6. Jacob Wilson (R)13.3%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)23.2%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)25.4%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.0%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)20.2%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)20.3%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)21.7%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)19.7%3.0

6. Luis Rengifo (R)18.2%3.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.7%2.1

8. Sal Frelick (L)18.7%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.6%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.3%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)28.6%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.9%3.0

4. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.8%2.4

5. Trevor Story (R)27.8%2.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.9%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.7%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB16.8%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)21.7%3.0

2. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.5%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.1%3.0

5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.5%2.1

6. Miguel Andujar (R)18.6%2.0

7. Ramón Laureano (R)27.6%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.3%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (R)18.7%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)18.7%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)20.5%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)18.9%3.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)26.3%3.0

6. Javier Sanoja (R)18.8%2.1

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.7%2.0

8. Leo Jiménez (R)23.7%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)17.5%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.2%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)17.5%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.9%3.0

5. Dylan Beavers (L)20.0%2.0

6. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (R)22.8%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.1%2.0

9. Weston Wilson (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.4%3.0

3. Brett Baty (L)22.3%3.0

4. Vidal Bruján (L)20.9%2.8

5. Carson Benge (L)20.1%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.3%2.0

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.6%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.1%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)22.2%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.8%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.6%2.2

6. Michael Busch (L)22.8%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.3%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.9%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.0%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.7%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.5%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.5%3.0

5. Elias Díaz (R)22.5%2.6

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.8%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.4%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.5%3.0

2. Ryan Vilade (R)18.9%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)18.6%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.1%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.9%2.3

6. Ben Williamson (R)20.7%2.0

7. Chandler Simpson (L)17.6%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Haggerty (L)24.2%2.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.8%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.2%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.2%2.0

5. Evan Carter (L)20.2%2.0

6. Andrew McCutchen (R)26.7%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)24.8%1.1

8. Justin Foscue (R)24.7%1.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)25.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, May 8, 2026

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, May 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jesús Luzardo

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (88) — about 7.0 K vs LAA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (85) — about 6.0 K vs AZ: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Chris Sale (ATL) (84) — about 6.3 K vs LAD: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) (81) — about 7.0 K vs NYY: a 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (65) — about 6.0 K vs ATL: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (88).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jesús Luzardo is the arm to exploit it (100).
WSH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robby Snelling is the arm to exploit it (45).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robbie Ray is the arm to exploit it (53).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.7 strikeouts. Top play Jesús Luzardo punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 8, 2026)?: Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against COL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 8, 2026: Jesús Luzardo (~6.9 K), Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Nolan McLean (~6.0 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, May 8, 2026?: Jesús Luzardo punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.