Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 9, 2026)?

Blake Snell (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against ATL. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 9, 2026: Blake Snell (~7.2 K), Chase Burns (~5.9 K), Landen Roupp (~5.7 K), Edward Cabrera (~5.4 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, May 9, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 1–14

LAAaway

TORhomeTop matchup47 Final · 6–2

ATHaway

BALhomeTop matchup44 Final · 1–3

HOUaway

CINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 7–8

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup38 Final · 3–9

COLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup57 Final · 2–1

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup43 Final · 0–6

CHCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–5

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup37 Final · 1–6

SEAaway

CWShomeTop matchup40 Final · 3–4

NYYaway

MILhomeTop matchup59 Final · 1–2

NYMaway

AZhomeTop matchup38 Final · 2–4

STLaway

SDhomeTop matchup34 Final · 13–3

PITaway

SFhomeTop matchup64 Final · 7–2

ATLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate32.5% K/BF

vs LHB32.1%

vs RHB31.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.7%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.9%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.1%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)21.7%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)25.0%3.0

6. Michael Harris II (L)19.9%2.0

7. Sean Murphy (R)31.1%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.3%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)30.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)20.5%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.4%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.8%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)26.6%3.0

6. Zach Dezenzo (R)23.8%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)28.8%2.0

8. Braden Shewmake (L)20.2%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)19.8%3.0

3. Jared Triolo (R)22.8%3.0

4. Nick Yorke (R)21.1%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.1%2.9

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.1%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.5%2.0

8. Billy Cook (R)24.2%2.0

9. Joey Bart (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB18.4%

vs RHB28.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Haggerty (L)24.2%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.9%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.6%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.7%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)19.6%3.0

6. Joc Pederson (L)21.8%2.7

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.6%2.0

8. Kyle Higashioka (R)27.3%2.0

9. Justin Foscue (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB28.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Max Schuemann (R)21.4%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.7%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)21.8%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)15.3%2.7

5. Ryan McMahon (L)25.6%2.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)23.1%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)24.7%2.0

8. Trent Grisham (L)22.4%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.2% K/BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)19.9%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.8%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)14.2%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)23.2%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (L)25.9%2.8

6. Sal Frelick (L)13.0%2.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.5%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)16.5%2.0

9. Gary Sánchez (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nicky Lopez (L)21.8%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)22.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.7%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.0%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.9%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)22.2%2.2

7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)17.6%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.9%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Tyler Freeman (R)15.6%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.8%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)27.8%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.0%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.5%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)26.2%2.0

7. Jake McCarthy (L)18.1%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)24.7%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)21.9%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)20.3%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.3%3.0

4. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)21.5%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)24.3%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.1%2.8

7. Will Benson (L)28.0%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)19.5%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.5%3.0

2. Dalton Rushing (L)24.9%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.9%3.0

4. Alex Call (R)19.3%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)20.7%2.6

6. Santiago Espinal (R)19.2%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)28.2%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)18.8%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.4%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.3%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)26.3%3.0

4. Logan Porter (R)22.0%3.0

5. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.5%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)26.4%2.3

7. Matt Chapman (R)24.5%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.9%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0

2. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.9%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.6%3.0

4. Adam Frazier (L)24.6%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)24.3%2.4

6. Oswald Peraza (R)23.8%2.0

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.6%2.0

8. Omar Martinez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)25.2%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.1%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.2%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.5%3.0

5. Colby Thomas (R)22.6%3.0

6. Jacob Wilson (R)12.9%3.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.0%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)25.4%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.7%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)19.8%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)18.2%3.0

4. James Outman (L)28.3%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)16.8%2.3

6. Kody Clemens (L)23.9%2.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)21.6%2.0

8. Matt Wallner (L)27.9%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Petey Halpin (L)22.4%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.2%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.2%2.3

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.0%2.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)17.9%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.3%2.0

8. David Fry (R)23.6%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.0%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)29.3%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.5%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)25.8%2.9

6. Jarred Kelenic (L)22.0%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)20.4%2.0

8. Randal Grichuk (R)20.6%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.6%3.0

2. Joey Wiemer (R)29.4%3.0

3. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.1%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.7%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)20.0%2.6

6. Jacob Young (R)20.2%2.0

7. José Tena (L)23.0%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)21.4%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)20.1%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)25.4%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.0%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.9%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.2%3.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.8%2.5

7. Jorge Barrosa (L)25.9%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)22.6%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.9%3.0

2. Matt Vierling (R)20.2%3.0

3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.8%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)27.4%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)20.9%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)18.1%2.9

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.5%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)20.3%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.1%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.1%3.0

3. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)25.4%2.1

5. Justin Crawford (L)23.3%2.0

6. Brandon Marsh (L)24.2%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.5%2.0

8. Alec Bohm (R)20.3%2.0

9. Bryson Stott (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.8%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)22.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.9%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.0%2.8

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.8%2.0

7. Dylan Beavers (L)24.4%2.0

8. Blaze Alexander (R)26.1%2.0

9. Weston Wilson (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.6%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)21.8%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.4%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.6%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.6%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)22.0%2.9

6. Ramón Laureano (R)27.8%2.0

7. Ty France (R)16.2%2.0

8. Sung-Mun Song (L)23.7%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB16.2%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)18.8%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.6%3.0

3. MJ Melendez (L)28.0%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)24.6%3.0

5. Carson Benge (L)20.1%3.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.3%2.5

7. Brett Baty (L)22.4%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.7%2.0

9. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.2%3.0

2. Victor Scott II (L)25.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.6%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)28.8%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.1%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)21.9%2.0

8. Thomas Saggese (R)26.5%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.3 BF

Expected batters faced15.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)17.5%2.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.2%2.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.1%2.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.7%2.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)31.3%2.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.1%2.0

7. Lane Thomas (R)21.6%1.3

8. Michael Massey (L)20.3%1.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Tyler Heineman (L)23.6%3.0

2. Myles Straw (R)15.9%3.0

3. Davis Schneider (R)25.3%3.0

4. Lenyn Sosa (R)19.9%3.0

5. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.2%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.5%2.9

7. Ernie Clement (R)13.1%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.5%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB14.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.3%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)25.7%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.2%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)22.4%2.8

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.4%2.0

6. J.P. Crawford (L)16.7%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)22.4%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)23.1%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.9 BF

Expected batters faced13.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (R)19.1%2.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)18.1%2.0

3. Liam Hicks (L)18.9%2.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)22.3%2.0

5. Connor Norby (R)25.8%1.9

6. Jakob Marsee (L)26.3%1.0

7. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.4%1.0

8. Leo Jiménez (R)23.8%1.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, May 9, 2026

Blake Snell (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, May 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K, with Chase Burns (CIN) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Blake Snell

Blake Snell (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against ATL. He's missing bats at a 33% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and ATL has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase Burns (CIN) (71) — about 5.9 K vs HOU: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (64) — about 5.7 K vs PIT: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Edward Cabrera (CHC) (62) — about 5.4 K vs TEX: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) (59) — about 5.2 K vs NYY: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (59) — about 5.5 K vs MIL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Spencer Arrighetti is the arm to exploit it (57).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Trey Yesavage is the arm to exploit it (47).
MIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Tanner Bibee is the arm to exploit it (43).
STL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Randy Vásquez is the arm to exploit it (32).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.6 strikeouts. Top play Blake Snell punched out 5. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 9, 2026)?: Blake Snell (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against ATL. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 9, 2026: Blake Snell (~7.2 K), Chase Burns (~5.9 K), Landen Roupp (~5.7 K), Edward Cabrera (~5.4 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, May 9, 2026?: Blake Snell punched out 5.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.