Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 7, 2026)?

Max Meyer (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against BAL. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 7, 2026: Max Meyer (~5.9 K), Michael King (~5.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.5 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.6 K), Jake Irvin (~5.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–9

TEXaway

NYYhomeTop matchup88 Final · 5–7

MINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup77 Final · 8–5

CLEaway

KChomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–8

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup89 Final · 2–6

NYMaway

COLhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–2

PITaway

AZhomeTop matchup63 Final · 12–1

ATHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup43 Final · 3–4

BALaway

MIAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–4

TBaway

BOShomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–1

STLaway

SDhomeTop matchup94

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.9%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)21.5%3.0

3. Dylan Beavers (L)24.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.0%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)25.1%2.5

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.3%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)27.4%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)29.2%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.2%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)21.1%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.2%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.9%2.9

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.3%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.6%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)24.3%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Will Benson (L)23.1%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)22.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.1%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)19.7%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)21.4%2.9

6. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.3%2.0

7. JJ Bleday (L)22.3%2.0

8. Blake Dunn (R)30.1%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.8%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)23.0%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)16.0%3.0

4. José Caballero (R)24.1%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.6%2.3

6. Ryan McMahon (L)25.9%2.0

7. Trent Grisham (L)24.2%2.0

8. Max Schuemann (R)21.2%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.8%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.3%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)19.3%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.5%3.0

5. James Outman (L)27.3%2.5

6. Luke Keaschall (R)17.1%2.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)20.5%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)19.5%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)25.1%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.6%3.0

3. Tyler Freeman (R)16.0%3.0

4. Brenton Doyle (R)28.7%2.3

5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.9%2.0

6. Willi Castro (L)25.7%2.0

7. Jake McCarthy (L)16.8%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)13.8%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (L)24.6%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.1%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)26.9%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.4%3.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)17.6%2.9

7. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.2%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.1%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)19.0%3.0

2. Ketel Marte (L)19.5%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)26.6%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)20.2%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.6%3.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)19.9%2.1

7. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.8%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.8%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Richie Palacios (L)21.5%3.0

2. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.9%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)18.8%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.5%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.1%2.7

6. Ben Williamson (R)20.9%2.0

7. Chandler Simpson (L)17.3%2.0

8. Cedric Mullins (L)19.5%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)19.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (R)18.9%3.0

3. Liam Hicks (L)18.6%3.0

4. Christopher Morel (R)27.6%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.8%2.9

6. Kyle Stowers (L)20.5%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)27.0%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.0%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.0%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.4%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.2%2.7

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.6%2.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)24.6%2.0

7. Jared Triolo (R)22.7%2.0

8. Billy Cook (R)24.1%2.0

9. Joey Bart (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)25.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)20.2%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.5%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.6%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)14.6%2.6

6. Brett Harris (R)24.3%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.6%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)25.3%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.3%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.7%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.6%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)29.3%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.4%2.2

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.9%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.0

9. Lane Thomas (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.3%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)18.0%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)17.6%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.2%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)23.5%2.5

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.1%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)20.2%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.6%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Garrett Stubbs (L)20.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.3%2.2

3. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%2.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.1%2.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.5%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)21.7%2.0

7. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.1%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)19.9%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)21.1%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.9%3.0

3. Mark Vientos (R)22.6%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)25.4%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)21.2%2.2

6. Carson Benge (L)25.8%2.0

7. Francisco Alvarez (R)20.9%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)21.0%2.0

9. Vidal Bruján (R)28.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)23.2%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)19.3%3.0

4. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.8%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.2%2.8

6. Ramón Laureano (R)23.8%2.0

7. Ty France (R)19.9%2.0

8. Nick Castellanos (R)21.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB15.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)29.2%3.0

2. Daylen Lile (L)19.3%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.9%3.0

5. Brady House (R)27.2%3.0

6. José Tena (L)25.3%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)20.8%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)19.8%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.0 BF

Expected batters faced14.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%2.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)28.5%2.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.4%2.0

4. Trevor Story (R)27.6%2.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)16.5%2.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.7%1.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)21.6%1.0

8. Connor Wong (R)20.4%1.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.8 BF

Expected batters faced14.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.6%2.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.2%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.8%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.7%2.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)27.0%2.0

6. Jake Burger (R)25.4%1.8

7. Evan Carter (L)21.2%1.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)26.2%1.0

9. Sam Haggerty (L)24.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Max Meyer (MIA) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, May 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K, with Michael King (SD) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Max Meyer

Max Meyer (MIA) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against BAL. He's missing bats at a 24% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and BAL has been whiff-prone, going down 25% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael King (SD) (94) — about 5.7 K vs STL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (89) — about 5.5 K vs CIN: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (88) — about 5.6 K vs NYY: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jake Irvin (WSH) (77) — about 5.0 K vs MIN: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Christian Scott (NYM) (76) — about 5.0 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Max Meyer is the arm to exploit it (100).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (89).
NYM is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jose Quintana is the arm to exploit it (30).
TEX is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Paul Blackburn is the arm to exploit it (0).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.3 strikeouts. Top play Max Meyer punched out 5. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 7, 2026)?: Max Meyer (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against BAL. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 7, 2026: Max Meyer (~5.9 K), Michael King (~5.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.5 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.6 K), Jake Irvin (~5.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, May 7, 2026?: Max Meyer punched out 5.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.