Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 10, 2026)?

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against COL. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 10, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~7.2 K), Carlos Rodón (~5.8 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.3 K), Gavin Williams (~6.1 K), Davis Martin (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, May 10, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 10, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–5

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup37 Final · 1–2

ATHaway

BALhomeTop matchup44 Final · 4–1

TBaway

BOShomeTop matchup59 Final · 0–6

COLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

LAAaway

TORhomeTop matchup49 Final · 0–5

HOUaway

CINhomeTop matchup20 Final · 5–4

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–2

SEAaway

CWShomeTop matchup69 Final · 3–4

NYYaway

MILhomeTop matchup71 Final · 0–3

CHCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 Final · 6–7

PITaway

SFhomeTop matchup27 Final · 1–5

NYMaway

AZhomeTop matchup30 Final · 2–3

STLaway

SDhomeTop matchup39 Final · 7–2

ATLaway

LADhomeTop matchup50 Final · 6–3

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup40

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness25.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)26.9%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.6%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.7%3.0

4. Willi Castro (R)23.5%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)19.7%3.0

6. Mickey Moniak (L)29.8%3.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)26.9%2.6

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.8%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.5%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)20.3%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)20.8%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)21.8%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.5%3.0

6. David Hamilton (L)24.3%2.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.1%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)19.0%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.0%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)17.0%3.0

3. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.9%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.3%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)21.6%2.3

6. Carson Kelly (R)19.7%2.0

7. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.2%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)19.4%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.0%3.0

2. James Outman (L)28.3%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.3%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)21.6%3.0

5. Austin Martin (R)18.9%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.3%2.9

7. Kody Clemens (L)25.4%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)19.1%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB26.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)17.3%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)15.9%3.0

4. Cal Raleigh (L)27.5%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.5%3.0

6. Connor Joe (R)21.2%2.5

7. J.P. Crawford (L)20.6%2.0

8. Leo Rivas (L)27.7%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.2%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)27.5%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.5%2.4

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.2%2.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)26.6%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)18.6%2.0

8. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)18.1%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)17.7%3.0

3. Ben Williamson (R)20.1%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)19.1%3.0

5. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.2%2.8

6. Cedric Mullins (L)18.6%2.0

7. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.2%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)20.0%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)14.9%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)29.9%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.9%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.4%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)25.5%3.0

6. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.1%2.1

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.0%2.0

8. Randal Grichuk (R)21.3%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.7%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)16.9%3.0

3. Andy Pages (R)21.2%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.6%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)21.6%3.0

6. Alex Call (R)19.1%2.7

7. Dalton Rushing (L)25.7%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)19.2%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)13.0%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)21.1%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.5%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.2%3.0

5. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.5%3.0

6. Lenyn Sosa (R)19.6%2.1

7. Andrés Giménez (L)18.4%2.0

8. Myles Straw (R)15.8%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.6%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)22.3%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.5%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.3%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.4%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.9%2.1

7. Dylan Beavers (L)25.0%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.1%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.5%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.0%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.3%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.1%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)18.9%3.0

6. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%2.2

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)19.9%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)24.7%2.0

9. Justin Foscue (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)18.9%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)21.9%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.6%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.3%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.4%2.4

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.8%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%2.0

9. Gage Workman (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)22.1%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)19.1%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.5%2.4

5. Nolan Gorman (L)29.8%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.8%2.0

7. José Fermín (R)21.0%2.0

8. Victor Scott II (L)25.6%2.0

9. Pedro Pagés (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.0%3.0

2. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.3%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.5%3.0

4. Carlos Narváez (R)25.3%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)29.9%3.0

6. Mickey Gasper (L)21.0%2.5

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)21.6%2.0

8. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.9%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)22.0%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)23.3%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.7%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)22.0%2.9

6. Miguel Andujar (R)17.7%2.0

7. Ty France (R)15.9%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)19.9%2.0

9. Ramón Laureano (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.3%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.7%3.0

3. Brady House (R)26.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)19.8%3.0

6. Jacob Young (R)20.9%3.0

7. Curtis Mead (R)19.2%3.0

8. Drew Millas (L)22.9%2.1

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)20.4%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.3%3.0

3. Austin Slater (R)25.6%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)21.1%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)20.6%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)25.3%2.5

7. MJ Melendez (L)20.9%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)25.8%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.6%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)19.2%3.0

3. Nick Gonzales (R)17.2%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)18.9%3.0

5. Jared Triolo (R)22.5%2.8

6. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.8%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)25.0%2.0

8. Billy Cook (R)24.2%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)12.7%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)15.2%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.7%3.0

4. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.9%2.8

5. Jakob Marsee (L)24.1%2.0

6. Christopher Morel (R)23.3%2.0

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.6%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Will Benson (L)28.1%2.0

2. Spencer Steer (R)22.1%2.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.6%2.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.1%2.0

5. JJ Bleday (L)19.7%2.0

6. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.2%2.0

7. Blake Dunn (R)22.2%1.1

8. Matt McLain (R)24.4%1.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)21.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.3%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)22.1%3.0

4. Christian Koss (R)21.7%3.0

5. Heliot Ramos (R)25.6%2.4

6. Willy Adames (R)26.3%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)24.2%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.9%2.0

9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)21.5%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.6%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.9%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)22.5%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)24.5%2.9

6. Brice Matthews (R)26.8%2.0

7. Zach Dezenzo (R)24.2%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)19.7%2.0

9. César Salazar (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.6%2.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.7%2.0

3. Brent Rooker (R)26.0%2.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)26.7%2.0

5. Jonah Heim (R)18.5%2.0

6. Carlos Cortes (L)23.8%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.3%1.1

8. Zack Gelof (R)24.7%1.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)17.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.0% K/BF

vs LHB16.4%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.2%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.5%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)12.8%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)22.2%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)24.4%3.0

6. Michael Harris II (L)20.6%2.4

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.4%2.0

8. Raisel Iglesias (R)22.0%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)30.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.4 BF

Expected batters faced17.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)17.1%2.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.9%2.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.3%2.0

4. Isaac Collins (L)22.2%2.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)30.9%2.0

6. Michael Massey (L)20.0%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)26.5%2.0

8. Starling Marte (R)21.8%2.0

9. Lane Thomas (R)22.2%1.4

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB15.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.8%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.5%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)16.7%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)23.3%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.5%2.3

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.9%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)22.1%2.0

8. Alec Bohm (R)16.6%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.9 BF

Expected batters faced14.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.0%2.0

2. Mike Trout (R)26.9%2.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.1%2.0

4. Josh Lowe (L)25.6%2.0

5. Jo Adell (R)24.6%2.0

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.8%1.9

7. Oswald Peraza (R)23.6%1.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)19.2%1.0

9. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.1 BF

Expected batters faced16.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)13.7%2.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.8%2.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.0%2.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)24.3%2.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.3%2.0

6. Angel Martínez (L)24.7%2.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)17.1%2.0

8. David Fry (R)23.1%1.1

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)19.5%2.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.6%2.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.2%2.0

4. Jose Fernandez (R)22.2%2.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.7%1.6

6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.1%1.0

7. James McCann (R)27.1%1.0

8. Jorge Barrosa (L)25.9%1.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)26.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, May 10, 2026

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, May 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K, with Carlos Rodón (NYY) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been whiff-prone, going down 25% of the time. He's lined up for about 25 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Carlos Rodón (NYY) (71) — about 5.8 K vs MIL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) (70) — about 5.3 K vs CHC: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (70) — about 6.1 K vs MIN: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Davis Martin (CWS) (69) — about 5.5 K vs SEA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Henderson (MIL) (66) — about 5.5 K vs NYY: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (100).
ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Keegan Akin is the arm to exploit it (17).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Kai-Wei Teng is the arm to exploit it (20).
STL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Walker Buehler is the arm to exploit it (39).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.9 strikeouts. Top play Cristopher Sánchez punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 10, 2026)?: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against COL. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 10, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~7.2 K), Carlos Rodón (~5.8 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.3 K), Gavin Williams (~6.1 K), Davis Martin (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, May 10, 2026?: Cristopher Sánchez punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.