Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 11, 2026)?

Michael Soroka (AZ) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against TEX. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 11, 2026: Michael Soroka (~5.6 K), Ryan Weathers (~5.5 K), Trevor McDonald (~5.0 K), George Kirby (~5.2 K), Kevin Gausman (~4.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, May 11, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, May 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–7

LAAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup58 Final · 2–3

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup87 Final · 8–5

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–0

AZaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–1

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup85 Final · 9–3

SFaway

LADhomeTop matchup85

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.0%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.9%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.4%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)19.3%3.0

5. Justin Foscue (R)23.6%3.0

6. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.6%2.1

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.5%2.0

8. Sam Haggerty (L)24.4%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB28.6%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)19.7%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)17.4%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.5%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)25.2%2.8

6. Coby Mayo (R)25.3%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (R)23.6%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)24.0%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.2%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)16.5%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)16.0%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.0%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)18.1%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)22.0%2.1

7. Andy Pages (R)21.0%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)28.3%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)19.8%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.5%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.8%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.3%3.0

5. Zach Cole (L)24.2%3.0

6. Cam Smith (R)27.5%3.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)27.5%2.3

8. Braden Shewmake (L)19.9%2.0

9. Zach Dezenzo (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.5%3.0

2. Ben Williamson (R)19.9%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.4%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.8%3.0

5. Jake Fraley (L)22.6%3.0

6. Richie Palacios (L)23.5%2.1

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.2%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.4%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)16.5%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.5%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)15.7%3.0

4. Cal Raleigh (L)28.4%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)24.4%3.0

6. Connor Joe (R)21.2%2.1

7. J.P. Crawford (L)21.0%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)22.5%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.9%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.1%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.2%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.1%2.1

6. Myles Straw (R)15.4%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)12.6%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.5%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)23.8%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.4%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.8%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)24.0%2.8

5. Jo Adell (R)21.6%2.0

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.9%2.0

7. Oswald Peraza (R)23.2%2.0

8. Omar Martinez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB16.4%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.7%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)20.8%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)27.5%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.5%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)26.8%2.1

7. José Caballero (R)18.4%2.0

8. Max Schuemann (R)22.0%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.8%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.2%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.9%3.0

5. Drew Gilbert (L)19.5%2.7

6. Willy Adames (R)25.6%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)24.0%2.0

8. Harrison Bader (R)25.2%2.0

9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.5 BF

Expected batters faced13.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)18.7%2.0

2. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%2.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.2%2.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.3%2.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.8%1.5

6. David Fry (R)24.9%1.0

7. Angel Martínez (R)18.5%1.0

8. Travis Bazzana (L)21.9%1.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)17.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)19.8%2.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.7%2.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)17.9%2.0

4. Jose Fernandez (R)22.6%2.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.8%1.7

6. Nolan Arenado (R)20.3%1.0

7. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.9%1.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)22.9%1.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, May 11, 2026

Michael Soroka (AZ) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, May 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K, with Ryan Weathers (NYY) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Michael Soroka

Michael Soroka (AZ) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against TEX. He's missing bats at a 24% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TEX has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Ryan Weathers (NYY) (87) — about 5.5 K vs BAL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Trevor McDonald (SF) (85) — about 5.0 K vs LAD: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (85) — about 5.2 K vs HOU: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) (68) — about 4.7 K vs TB: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Peter Lambert (HOU) (64) — about 5.0 K vs SEA: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ryan Weathers is the arm to exploit it (87).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Joey Cantillo is the arm to exploit it (58).
TEX is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael Soroka is the arm to exploit it (100).
NYY is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Brandon Young is the arm to exploit it (48).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.6 strikeouts. Top play Michael Soroka punched out 5. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 11, 2026)?: Michael Soroka (AZ) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against TEX. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 11, 2026: Michael Soroka (~5.6 K), Ryan Weathers (~5.5 K), Trevor McDonald (~5.0 K), George Kirby (~5.2 K), Kevin Gausman (~4.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, May 11, 2026?: Michael Soroka punched out 5.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.