Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, May 12, 2026)?

Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against COL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, May 12, 2026: Paul Skenes (~6.4 K), Will Warren (~6.1 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.7 K), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~5.5 K), Bryan Woo (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, May 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–3

LAAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup32 Final · 6–2

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup91 Final · 10–4

WSHaway

CINhomeTop matchup32 Final · 1–3

COLaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–1

PHIaway

BOShomeTop matchup78 Final · 7–6

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup41 Final · 2–10

DETaway

NYMhomeTop matchup68 Final · 2–5

CHCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup41 Final · 5–6

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup45 Final · 0–3

MIAaway

MINhomeTop matchup62 Final · 4–6

SDaway

MILhomeTop matchup43 Final · 4–7

AZaway

TEXhomeTop matchup50 Final · 10–2

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup68 Final · 6–4

STLaway

ATHhomeTop matchup39 Final · 6–2

SFaway

LADhomeTop matchup72

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB28.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brenton Doyle (R)27.1%3.0

2. Jordan Beck (R)24.3%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)27.0%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.6%2.4

5. Tyler Freeman (R)15.5%2.0

6. Troy Johnston (L)23.5%2.0

7. Willi Castro (L)27.0%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.6%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB28.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.1%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)23.0%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.5%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.4%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)25.1%2.4

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.3%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)27.1%2.0

8. Leody Taveras (L)20.3%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.5%3.0

2. Mickey Gasper (L)20.4%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.7%3.0

4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.7%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)30.7%2.9

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.4%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.0%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)21.7%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.3%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.1%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.5%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.5%3.0

5. Heliot Ramos (R)24.6%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)25.5%2.6

7. Matt Chapman (R)24.5%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)19.3%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)19.7%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.3%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.6%3.0

4. Shay Whitcomb (R)26.0%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)27.7%3.0

6. Zach Dezenzo (R)23.4%2.2

7. Braden Shewmake (L)18.5%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)29.4%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)21.8%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.3%3.0

3. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.3%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)24.8%2.6

5. Austin Slater (R)22.8%2.0

6. Brett Baty (L)22.9%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)19.4%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)22.0%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.7%3.0

2. James Outman (L)28.9%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)22.1%3.0

5. Austin Martin (R)18.2%2.9

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.2%2.0

7. Kody Clemens (L)24.8%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)19.1%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zack Short (R)22.8%3.0

2. Matt Vierling (R)21.1%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)22.8%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)27.0%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.4%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)18.7%2.1

7. Gage Workman (L)22.2%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.6%2.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)16.0%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.0%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)16.1%2.7

4. Cal Raleigh (L)28.1%2.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.7%2.0

6. Luke Raley (L)31.3%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)20.5%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)23.9%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.0%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)22.9%3.0

3. Ben Rice (L)24.9%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)15.6%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.1%2.6

6. Trent Grisham (L)23.0%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)25.0%2.0

8. Max Schuemann (R)21.0%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)20.4%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.7%3.0

3. Tim Tawa (R)21.8%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)18.8%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)14.9%2.5

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.1%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.6%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)25.0%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.3%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)29.5%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.1%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.2%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)26.1%2.9

6. Edgar Quero (L)23.8%2.0

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.1%2.0

8. Derek Hill (R)25.6%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)21.8%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.5%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)24.3%3.0

4. Miguel Andujar (R)18.6%2.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.3%2.0

6. Ty France (R)16.8%2.0

7. Nick Castellanos (R)22.3%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)27.9%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.3%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.6%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.4%2.9

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.6%2.0

6. Austin Riley (R)28.1%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)18.6%2.0

8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)19.2%2.0

9. José Azócar (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.5%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.8%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)19.0%2.7

5. Andrés Giménez (L)17.8%2.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.3%2.0

7. Daulton Varsho (L)20.2%2.0

8. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.8%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.0%3.0

2. Matt Shaw (R)21.2%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)19.2%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)26.4%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.9%2.9

6. Michael Busch (L)21.8%2.0

7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)19.1%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)19.4%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.3%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.8%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)23.8%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)18.2%3.0

5. Masyn Winn (R)17.8%2.8

6. Victor Scott II (L)21.0%2.0

7. Yohel Pozo (R)17.6%2.0

8. Nathan Church (L)19.6%2.0

9. Nolan Gorman (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)21.5%3.0

2. Sam Haggerty (L)23.4%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.1%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)19.6%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)19.0%2.1

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.8%2.0

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.0%2.0

8. Jake Burger (R)24.9%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)24.2%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)20.6%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)20.4%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.3%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)14.1%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)25.8%2.3

7. Lawrence Butler (L)25.3%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (L)20.0%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)13.9%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)15.0%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.7%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)25.9%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)29.0%2.8

6. Jakob Marsee (L)24.7%2.0

7. Christopher Morel (R)24.6%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.5%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.2%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)20.7%2.6

6. Daylen Lile (L)20.0%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.7%2.0

8. José Tena (L)23.3%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)28.3%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)26.8%3.0

5. Vaughn Grissom (R)15.5%3.0

6. Oswald Peraza (R)23.1%2.2

7. Jo Adell (R)23.8%2.0

8. Josh Lowe (L)25.3%2.0

9. Sebastián Rivero (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.5%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)16.6%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.9%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.4%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.5%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)30.6%2.6

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.9%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.5%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)18.3%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.7%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.0%3.0

3. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.1%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)20.2%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)23.5%2.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)19.8%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)17.5%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)21.5%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.7%3.0

2. Spencer Steer (R)21.9%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.7%2.6

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.2%2.0

5. JJ Bleday (L)19.1%2.0

6. Matt McLain (R)23.4%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)28.2%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.7%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.9%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.7%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.0%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.1%2.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.2%2.0

7. Billy Cook (R)23.8%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)24.5%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)13.0%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.0%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.7%2.4

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.9%2.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)17.2%2.0

6. Petey Halpin (L)22.0%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.5%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)25.5%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)14.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.7% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.9%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)18.6%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)15.7%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)18.7%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)18.3%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)22.0%2.3

7. Andy Pages (R)20.6%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.2%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.2 BF

Expected batters faced15.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)19.4%2.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.2%2.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.3%2.0

4. Adolis García (R)22.9%2.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)25.5%2.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.7%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)17.0%1.3

8. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%1.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)22.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)20.3%2.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)20.7%2.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)22.1%2.0

4. William Contreras (R)14.0%2.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)24.0%1.7

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)31.7%1.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)13.2%1.0

8. David Hamilton (L)21.0%1.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, May 12, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Will Warren (NYY) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 21 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Will Warren (NYY) (91) — about 6.1 K vs BAL: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) (78) — about 5.7 K vs BOS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) (72) — about 5.5 K vs SF: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (68) — about 5.5 K vs HOU: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jack Flaherty (DET) (68) — about 5.4 K vs NYM: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Paul Skenes is the arm to exploit it (100).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Miles Mikolas is the arm to exploit it (27).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Slade Cecconi is the arm to exploit it (32).
CWS is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Stephen Kolek is the arm to exploit it (45).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.0 strikeouts. Top play Paul Skenes punched out 10. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, May 12, 2026)?: Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against COL. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, May 12, 2026: Paul Skenes (~6.4 K), Will Warren (~6.1 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.7 K), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~5.5 K), Bryan Woo (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, May 12, 2026?: Paul Skenes punched out 10.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.