Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, May 13, 2026)?

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against SD. A 34% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, May 13, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~6.9 K), Dylan Cease (~6.5 K), Parker Messick (~6.3 K), Shohei Ohtani (~5.9 K), Kyle Bradish (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, May 13, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 0–7

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–4

LAAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup94 Final · 8–7

WSHaway

CINhomeTop matchup37 Final · 10–4

COLaway

PIThomeTop matchup45 Final · 1–3

PHIaway

BOShomeTop matchup34 Final · 3–5

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup99 Final · 2–3

DETaway

NYMhomeTop matchup56 Final · 1–4

CHCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–6

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup65 Final · 9–5

MIAaway

MINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 3–1

SDaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

AZaway

TEXhomeTop matchup37 Final · 3–4

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup59 Final · 2–6

STLaway

ATHhomeTop matchup47 Final · 0–4

SFaway

LADhomeTop matchup84

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate34.4% K/BF

vs LHB36.8%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)21.1%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)25.0%3.0

4. Bryce Johnson (L)24.1%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.6%2.6

6. Gavin Sheets (L)21.5%2.0

7. Sung-Mun Song (L)23.8%2.0

8. Ty France (R)17.8%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.8% K/BF

vs LHB29.8%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.6%3.0

2. Ben Williamson (R)20.2%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.6%3.0

4. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%3.0

5. Jake Fraley (L)23.9%3.0

6. Richie Palacios (L)22.3%2.4

7. Cedric Mullins (L)22.2%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.8%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.2%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.9%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)22.1%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)25.6%3.0

5. Oswald Peraza (R)22.7%2.8

6. Zach Neto (R)23.6%2.0

7. Yoán Moncada (R)29.7%2.0

8. Omar Martinez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Bryce Teodosio (R)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.6%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)9.7%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)24.6%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.9%3.0

5. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.4%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)25.5%2.5

7. Matt Chapman (R)24.3%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)19.1%2.0

9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.4%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.3%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)27.9%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.4%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.1%3.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)26.4%2.1

7. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)24.4%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.2%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.1%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)12.5%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.3%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)25.2%3.0

6. Michael Harris II (L)22.2%2.2

7. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.4%2.0

8. Raisel Iglesias (R)22.0%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Derek Hill (R)25.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)30.8%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.6%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.6%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)25.5%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.1%2.8

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)23.5%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.1%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)19.2%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)21.1%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.6%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)29.0%3.0

6. Braden Shewmake (L)18.9%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)28.3%2.0

8. Zach Cole (L)27.2%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.2%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)19.7%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)18.4%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)22.6%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)24.9%2.5

6. Luke Keaschall (R)17.1%2.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)21.0%2.0

8. Matt Wallner (L)31.2%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.3%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)24.0%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)27.0%2.1

5. Matt Vierling (R)21.2%2.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)18.9%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.0%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)19.7%2.0

9. Gage Workman (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)19.4%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.5%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)18.2%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.3%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)25.2%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (R)25.2%3.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)25.6%2.3

8. Weston Wilson (R)25.7%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (R)18.6%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)16.1%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)18.3%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.4%3.0

5. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%3.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)21.5%2.3

7. Daniel Schneemann (L)27.6%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)19.6%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mookie Betts (R)19.0%3.0

2. Will Smith (R)22.9%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.1%3.0

4. Andy Pages (R)20.8%3.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)20.3%2.8

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)21.5%2.0

7. Miguel Rojas (R)18.2%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)18.4%2.0

9. Santiago Espinal (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.1 BF

Expected batters faced20.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.0%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)22.0%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.6%2.1

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.8%2.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)29.3%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.3%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.3%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)24.8%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)19.9%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)19.9%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)13.8%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)23.6%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)22.5%2.8

6. Blake Perkins (L)25.5%2.0

7. Luis Rengifo (L)16.4%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)12.9%2.0

9. Gary Sánchez (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (L)27.2%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)23.3%3.0

3. Tyler Freeman (R)16.0%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.9%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)23.7%3.0

6. Kyle Karros (R)24.3%2.1

7. Brenton Doyle (R)27.1%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.8%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)24.6%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.8%3.0

3. MJ Melendez (L)22.4%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)20.0%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)20.5%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)24.9%2.7

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.1%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)21.6%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)21.1%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.2%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.2%3.0

4. JJ Bleday (L)18.4%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)21.9%2.5

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)26.2%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)24.9%2.0

8. Blake Dunn (R)20.8%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)23.1%3.0

2. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.0%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.1%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)19.7%2.9

5. Evan Carter (L)19.9%2.0

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.2%2.0

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.3%2.0

8. Jake Burger (R)24.0%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shea Langeliers (R)20.9%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)29.8%3.0

3. Lawrence Butler (L)24.4%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.9%3.0

5. Henry Bolte (R)22.0%2.7

6. Jonah Heim (R)18.5%2.0

7. Zack Gelof (R)25.1%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)21.5%2.0

9. Michael Stefanic (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.4%3.0

2. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.7%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.1%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.3%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.7%2.5

6. Trevor Story (R)30.0%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)21.7%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)24.6%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.9%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.3%3.0

3. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)22.8%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)21.3%2.8

6. Daylen Lile (L)21.8%2.0

7. Joey Wiemer (R)26.9%2.0

8. Luis García Jr. (L)21.0%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.8%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)15.7%3.0

4. Brendan Donovan (L)15.2%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.1%2.1

6. Connor Joe (R)20.9%2.0

7. Rob Refsnyder (R)23.2%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)21.1%2.0

9. Mitch Garver (R)28.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)19.7%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)23.5%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.2%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)20.2%2.9

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.2%2.0

6. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.9%2.0

7. Jose Fernandez (R)22.6%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.2%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.7%3.0

2. Bryce Harper (L)17.6%3.0

3. Adolis García (R)23.0%3.0

4. Trea Turner (R)22.5%2.6

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.2%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.4%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)21.0%2.0

9. Edmundo Sosa (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.0%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)19.6%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.9%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)27.0%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.9%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)20.8%2.5

7. Michael Conforto (L)23.6%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.8%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.5%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.8%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.6%3.0

5. Nick Loftin (R)18.5%2.3

6. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.6%2.0

7. Starling Marte (R)21.9%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)25.9%2.0

9. Carter Jensen (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB15.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.8%3.0

2. Konnor Griffin (R)25.7%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)21.3%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.0%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.1%2.2

6. Nick Gonzales (R)22.8%2.0

7. Brandon Lowe (L)25.1%2.0

8. Spencer Horwitz (L)20.6%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.9 BF

Expected batters faced14.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.5%2.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.4%2.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.1%2.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.5%2.0

6. Myles Straw (R)16.4%1.9

7. Ernie Clement (R)12.1%1.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.3%1.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB14.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.3%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)14.3%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.5%3.0

4. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.9%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)28.6%2.7

6. Jakob Marsee (L)24.4%2.0

7. Leo Jiménez (R)19.6%2.0

8. Owen Caissie (L)28.6%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, May 13, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jacob Misiorowski

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against SD. He's missing bats at a 34% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SD has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (99) — about 6.5 K vs TB: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (94) — about 6.3 K vs LAA: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (84) — about 5.9 K vs SF: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) (70) — about 5.8 K vs NYY: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (66) — about 5.4 K vs ATL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Seth Lugo is the arm to exploit it (65).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Parker Messick is the arm to exploit it (94).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jose Quintana is the arm to exploit it (11).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Max Fried is the arm to exploit it (54).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.8 strikeouts. Top play Jacob Misiorowski punched out 10. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, May 13, 2026)?: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.9 K against SD. A 34% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, May 13, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~6.9 K), Dylan Cease (~6.5 K), Parker Messick (~6.3 K), Shohei Ohtani (~5.9 K), Kyle Bradish (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, May 13, 2026?: Jacob Misiorowski punched out 10.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.