Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 16, 2026)?

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 16, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.7 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.3 K), Davis Martin (~5.8 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.7 K), Payton Tolle (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, May 16, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–1

TORaway

DEThomeTop matchup40 Final · 2–4

KCaway

STLhomeTop matchup34 Final · 2–4

AZaway

COLhomeTop matchup45 Final · 3–13

BALaway

WSHhomeTop matchup36 Final · 6–0

PHIaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–5

MIAaway

TBhomeTop matchup26 Final · 4–7

CINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup37 Final · 1–4

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup99 Final · 3–8

CHCaway

CWShomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–1

MILaway

MINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 7–4

SDaway

SEAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–2

BOSaway

ATLhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–6

NYYaway

NYMhomeTop matchup35 Final · 15–2

LADaway

LAAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–4

SFaway

ATHhomeTop matchup57

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.8%3.0

2. Konnor Griffin (R)24.7%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)20.7%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.5%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)23.0%3.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)22.1%3.0

7. Brandon Lowe (L)24.9%2.9

8. Jared Triolo (R)20.8%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.1% K/BF

vs LHB27.9%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Allen (R)21.3%3.0

2. Isaac Paredes (R)20.4%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)22.5%3.0

5. Braden Shewmake (L)18.3%2.4

6. Brice Matthews (R)27.1%2.0

7. Zach Cole (L)27.8%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)28.3%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB27.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.3%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.3%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)27.0%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.5%3.0

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.8%2.5

7. Matt Shaw (R)21.0%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.5%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)24.1%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.4%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.3%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.0%2.9

6. Miguel Andujar (R)19.6%2.0

7. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.1%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)27.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB27.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)18.3%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (R)13.0%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)25.2%3.0

4. Jorge Mateo (R)29.2%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.2%2.6

6. Michael Harris II (L)23.1%2.0

7. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.0%2.0

8. Sandy León (R)22.3%2.0

9. José Azócar (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)18.9%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)18.6%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.0%3.0

4. Trevor Larnach (L)19.7%2.2

5. Josh Bell (L)24.9%2.0

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.6%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)25.4%2.0

9. James Outman (L)27.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.9%3.0

2. Santiago Espinal (R)18.6%3.0

3. Dalton Rushing (L)27.6%3.0

4. Will Smith (R)18.5%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)20.3%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)21.1%2.4

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.1%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)20.0%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.6%3.0

2. Carlos Narváez (R)26.0%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.6%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.6%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.1%3.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.6

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.8%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.7%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)24.1%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.1%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.5%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.1%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)14.1%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.8%2.4

7. Colby Thomas (R)23.6%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.9%2.0

9. Jonah Heim (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.2%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.6%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.6%3.0

4. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.8%2.9

5. Luis Rengifo (R)17.7%2.0

6. Chad Patrick (R)22.0%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)18.6%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (R)18.4%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.6%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.9%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.0%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.8%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)24.4%3.0

6. Randal Grichuk (R)20.8%2.1

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)25.2%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.7%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)24.5%3.0

2. Brenton Doyle (R)24.4%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)20.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)29.5%3.0

5. Mickey Moniak (L)29.3%3.0

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.0%3.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)19.8%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)26.7%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)18.9%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.7%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.5%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%2.3

6. Myles Straw (R)16.5%2.0

7. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.3%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)26.5%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (R)24.3%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.1%3.0

4. Spencer Steer (R)19.4%3.0

5. JJ Bleday (L)21.9%2.1

6. Matt McLain (R)22.2%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)22.1%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.7%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maverick Handley (R)28.9%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)23.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.4%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.2%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.1%2.3

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.3%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)20.0%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)29.4%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)24.4%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.6%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)20.6%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)19.4%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)20.8%2.8

6. A.J. Ewing (L)23.6%2.0

7. MJ Melendez (L)22.5%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)24.8%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)15.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.8%3.0

5. Elias Díaz (R)23.5%2.8

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.4%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.1%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)19.0%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.0%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.5%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.7%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.6%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.4%2.7

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.8%2.0

7. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.2%2.0

8. Joey Wiemer (R)30.1%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)18.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.6%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)16.7%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)22.9%2.4

5. Luke Raley (L)27.9%2.0

6. Cole Young (L)21.0%2.0

7. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.0%2.0

8. Jhonny Pereda (R)24.7%2.0

9. Connor Joe (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Masyn Winn (R)16.4%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)17.5%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)23.4%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)19.0%3.0

5. José Fermín (R)20.3%3.0

6. Thomas Saggese (R)26.2%2.2

7. Nathan Church (L)20.7%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)26.5%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.3%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.5%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.4%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.3%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)27.1%3.0

6. Jakob Marsee (L)22.8%2.6

7. Javier Sanoja (R)17.2%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.1%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.1%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.1%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)16.0%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)23.0%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)20.8%3.0

7. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%3.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.1

9. Taylor Walls (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.9%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.9%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)23.7%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.1%3.0

5. Willy Adames (R)25.9%3.0

6. Matt Chapman (R)25.5%2.4

7. Drew Gilbert (L)19.3%2.0

8. Harrison Bader (R)24.2%2.0

9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.2%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)29.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.8%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)15.3%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)17.8%2.3

6. Adolis García (R)26.4%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.3%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.3%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB16.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.4%3.0

3. Zach Neto (R)21.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)26.7%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.6%3.0

6. Oswald Peraza (R)22.5%3.0

7. Nolan Schanuel (L)20.9%2.1

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.8%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.9%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)13.8%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.1%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)18.3%2.0

6. Steven Kwan (L)13.1%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.9%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)25.2%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.6 BF

Expected batters faced15.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)23.5%2.0

2. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.0%2.0

3. Josh Jung (R)19.4%2.0

4. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.3%2.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.8%2.0

6. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.8%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)23.7%1.6

8. Danny Jansen (R)23.4%1.0

9. Justin Foscue (R)22.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)18.8%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.6%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.3%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)20.1%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.4%2.3

6. Jorge Barrosa (L)27.0%2.0

7. Jose Fernandez (R)22.3%2.0

8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.7%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.0 BF

Expected batters faced14.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)22.3%2.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)27.2%2.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)16.8%2.0

4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%2.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%2.0

6. Amed Rosario (R)23.2%1.0

7. Trent Grisham (L)18.8%1.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.5%1.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.9 BF

Expected batters faced12.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.0%2.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.0%2.0

3. Gage Workman (L)21.6%2.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)18.2%1.9

5. Riley Greene (L)25.6%1.0

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.8%1.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%1.0

8. Zack Short (R)22.5%1.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)22.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, May 16, 2026

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, May 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Jacob deGrom (TEX) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PIT has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 25 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jacob deGrom (TEX) (99) — about 6.3 K vs HOU: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Davis Martin (CWS) (84) — about 5.8 K vs CHC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (72) — about 5.7 K vs SD: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (72) — about 5.5 K vs ATL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Logan Henderson (MIL) (71) — about 5.5 K vs MIN: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (45).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cade Cavalli is the arm to exploit it (36).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (100).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Justin Wrobleski is the arm to exploit it (21).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.1 strikeouts. Top play Cristopher Sánchez punched out 13. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 16, 2026)?: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against PIT. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 16, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.7 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.3 K), Davis Martin (~5.8 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.7 K), Payton Tolle (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, May 16, 2026?: Cristopher Sánchez punched out 13.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.