Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 15, 2026)?

Jack Leiter (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against HOU. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 15, 2026: Jack Leiter (~6.2 K), Edward Cabrera (~5.5 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.7 K), Aaron Nola (~5.3 K), Emerson Hancock (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, May 15, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 15, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 11–9

PHIaway

PIThomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–3

BALaway

WSHhomeTop matchup45 Final · 2–3

TORaway

DEThomeTop matchup68 Final · 7–6

CINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup49 Final · 2–7

MIAaway

TBhomeTop matchup36 Final · 3–2

MILaway

MINhomeTop matchup56 Final · 2–3

BOSaway

ATLhomeTop matchup76 Final · 5–2

NYYaway

NYMhomeTop matchup84 Final · 10–5

CHCaway

CWShomeTop matchup85 Final · 0–2

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

KCaway

STLhomeTop matchup53 Final · 9–1

AZaway

COLhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–0

LADaway

LAAhomeTop matchup24 Final · 2–0

SDaway

SEAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–5

SFaway

ATHhomeTop matchup47

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB27.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Matthews (R)27.9%3.0

2. Nick Allen (R)21.3%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.4%3.0

5. Braden Shewmake (L)19.2%3.0

6. Zach Dezenzo (R)25.1%2.2

7. Zach Cole (L)27.5%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)27.3%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.4%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.7%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.6%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)24.9%3.0

6. Randal Grichuk (R)21.4%2.5

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)24.2%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)22.4%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)20.0%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.4%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)18.1%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)23.8%3.0

5. MJ Melendez (L)26.9%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)23.5%2.1

7. Marcus Semien (R)19.2%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)20.7%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.6%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)23.1%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.2%3.0

5. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.2%2.9

6. Nick Gonzales (R)16.9%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)25.4%2.0

8. Endy Rodríguez (L)20.5%2.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)22.6%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)24.0%3.0

4. Ty France (R)19.3%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.6%3.0

6. Miguel Andujar (R)20.2%2.1

7. Ramón Laureano (R)27.8%2.0

8. Sung-Mun Song (L)23.4%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.2% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)25.2%3.0

2. Mickey Gasper (L)20.1%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.4%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.0%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.4%2.4

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.8%2.0

7. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.5%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.1%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.1%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.0%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)15.8%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)19.0%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.1%2.4

7. Rafael Marchán (L)21.4%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)21.0%2.0

9. Adolis García (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.3%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.9%3.0

3. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.4%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)19.8%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)19.4%3.0

6. Jake Burger (R)23.5%2.8

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.4%2.0

8. Kyle Higashioka (R)26.4%2.0

9. Justin Foscue (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.3%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)21.3%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)24.2%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.0%2.9

5. Matt Vierling (R)21.0%2.0

6. Gage Workman (L)22.2%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)20.1%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.9%2.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)19.4%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)27.0%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.8%2.7

6. Matt Shaw (R)21.2%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)19.6%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)20.5%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)18.5%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)19.2%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)24.4%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)17.6%2.8

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.9%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%2.0

8. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.9%2.0

9. James Outman (L)27.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.1%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)27.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.7%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.3%3.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)27.2%2.5

7. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.4%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.9%3.0

2. Yohel Pozo (R)21.3%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.6%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.2%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)28.0%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.5%3.0

7. Nathan Church (L)21.3%2.1

8. Pedro Pagés (R)24.6%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)22.3%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)19.4%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)14.1%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)24.7%2.6

5. Blake Perkins (L)25.6%2.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)20.6%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)15.4%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)15.7%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)16.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.6%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.4%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)30.8%3.0

6. Lane Thomas (R)24.8%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.6%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)20.1%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)26.0%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.3%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)27.2%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.9%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.6%3.0

6. Jake McCarthy (L)17.8%2.7

7. Willi Castro (L)27.0%2.0

8. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)20.5%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.0%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.2%3.0

4. JJ Bleday (L)18.4%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)21.6%2.4

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)26.8%2.0

7. Matt McLain (R)21.9%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.4%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.6%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.8%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.3%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)23.6%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)23.6%2.6

6. Michael Harris II (L)22.8%2.0

7. Ha-Seong Kim (R)21.0%2.0

8. Didier Fuentes (R)22.0%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)9.2%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)25.7%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.1%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)23.2%2.8

6. Willy Adames (R)26.0%2.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.1%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)21.0%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)23.1%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.5%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.2%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)24.6%3.0

5. Henry Bolte (R)21.8%2.9

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.7%2.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.9%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.2%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.1%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.4%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)21.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.5%3.0

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.4%2.9

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.4%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)22.9%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)14.3%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)17.2%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.5%3.0

5. Connor Joe (R)20.6%2.8

6. J.P. Crawford (L)20.0%2.0

7. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.9%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)21.5%2.0

9. Mitch Garver (R)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.6%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.1%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.0%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)16.5%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%2.8

6. Ben Williamson (R)20.3%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.3%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)19.3%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.5%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)15.0%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)19.2%2.3

5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)14.4%2.0

6. Tim Tawa (R)21.8%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)21.9%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)24.4%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.8% K/BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.1%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)17.7%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)19.1%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.2%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)20.2%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)21.7%3.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.8%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)26.7%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB16.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)18.6%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)15.5%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)17.2%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.4%3.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.4%2.7

6. Angel Martínez (R)19.0%2.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)20.6%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)20.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate14.5% K/BF

vs LHB15.0%

vs RHB17.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.7%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)23.5%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.6%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.4%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.8%2.0

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.4%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)20.2%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)28.6%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.5 BF

Expected batters faced14.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.5%2.0

2. Mike Trout (R)28.1%2.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.3%2.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.5%2.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.5%2.0

6. Zach Neto (R)29.0%1.5

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)22.9%1.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)21.7%1.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)23.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (R)19.3%2.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)17.7%2.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)17.2%2.0

4. Christopher Morel (R)28.8%2.0

5. Kyle Stowers (L)23.3%1.6

6. Connor Norby (R)25.7%1.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)25.2%1.0

8. Owen Caissie (L)31.7%1.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.5 BF

Expected batters faced15.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.7%2.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.2%2.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.5%2.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.4%2.0

6. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.8%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)12.8%1.5

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.7%1.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, May 15, 2026

Jack Leiter (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, May 15, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K, with Edward Cabrera (CHC) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against HOU. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and HOU has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Edward Cabrera (CHC) (85) — about 5.5 K vs CWS: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (84) — about 5.7 K vs NYM: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) (77) — about 5.3 K vs PIT: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) (77) — about 5.5 K vs SD: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Spencer Strider (ATL) (76) — about 5.8 K vs BOS: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

MIA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ian Seymour is the arm to exploit it (13).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Will Klein is the arm to exploit it (20).
HOU is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jack Leiter is the arm to exploit it (100).
NYY is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Clay Holmes is the arm to exploit it (54).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.0 strikeouts. Top play Jack Leiter punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 15, 2026)?: Jack Leiter (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against HOU. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 15, 2026: Jack Leiter (~6.2 K), Edward Cabrera (~5.5 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.7 K), Aaron Nola (~5.3 K), Emerson Hancock (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, May 15, 2026?: Jack Leiter punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.