Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 17, 2026)?

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against HOU. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 17, 2026: Nathan Eovaldi (~6.4 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Grayson Rodriguez (~5.9 K), Michael Soroka (~5.5 K), Gavin Williams (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, May 17, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 3–6

MIAaway

TBhomeTop matchup54 Final · 7–3

BALaway

WSHhomeTop matchup36 Final · 6–0

PHIaway

PIThomeTop matchup98 Final · 1–8

BOSaway

ATLhomeTop matchup46 Final · 3–10

CINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–1

TORaway

DEThomeTop matchup62 Final · 6–7

NYYaway

NYMhomeTop matchup66 Final · 8–0

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–9

CHCaway

CWShomeTop matchup44 Final · 4–5

MILaway

MINhomeTop matchup40 Final · 2–0

KCaway

STLhomeTop matchup42 Final · 8–6

AZaway

COLhomeTop matchup79 Final · 10–1

SFaway

ATHhomeTop matchup46 Final · 10–1

LADaway

LAAhomeTop matchup88 Final · 8–3

SDaway

SEAhomeTop matchup68

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Matthews (R)26.5%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)20.3%3.0

3. Shay Whitcomb (R)25.8%3.0

4. Zach Cole (L)28.0%3.0

5. Zach Dezenzo (R)26.7%3.0

6. Braden Shewmake (L)18.9%3.0

7. Cam Smith (R)28.1%2.0

8. César Salazar (L)18.9%2.0

9. Nick Allen (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.5% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB28.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.2%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.9%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)15.1%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)18.1%2.5

6. Adolis García (R)27.6%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.5%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.9%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.7%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)16.5%3.0

3. Andy Pages (R)20.6%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)18.7%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.9%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)21.1%2.0

7. Dalton Rushing (L)27.4%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)16.7%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)25.5%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.9%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.1%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)19.1%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)23.6%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)26.8%2.1

7. Jake McCarthy (L)17.6%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.0%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)21.6%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.2%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)17.9%3.0

4. Spencer Steer (R)21.1%3.0

5. Sal Stewart (R)21.1%3.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)26.5%3.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.4%2.2

8. Blake Dunn (R)20.7%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.6%3.0

2. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.7%3.0

3. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)23.0%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%3.0

6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.7%3.0

7. Ramón Laureano (R)27.4%2.3

8. Ty France (R)19.6%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.4%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.5%3.0

4. Nick Gonzales (R)17.4%3.0

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)16.8%3.0

6. Konnor Griffin (R)25.3%2.3

7. Jake Mangum (L)21.3%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)20.5%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness26.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)27.3%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.9%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.5%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)27.2%2.7

6. Jo Adell (R)23.1%2.0

7. Jose Siri (R)35.6%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.1%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.5%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.2%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)27.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.7%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)28.0%2.3

7. Max Schuemann (R)22.7%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.2%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)20.7%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)24.2%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.4%3.0

5. Matt Vierling (R)20.6%3.0

6. Gage Workman (L)27.1%2.4

7. Zach McKinstry (L)19.6%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.6%2.0

9. Wenceel Pérez (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.2%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.2%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)25.0%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)26.9%2.1

6. Jakob Marsee (L)21.5%2.0

7. Leo Jiménez (R)20.2%2.0

8. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.7%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.7%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)19.6%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.8%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.4%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)22.8%2.8

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.4%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.5%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.5%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.6%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)16.5%2.5

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.2%2.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%2.0

7. Andrés Giménez (L)18.9%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.8%2.0

9. Davis Schneider (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.8%3.0

2. Mickey Gasper (L)18.0%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.0%3.0

4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.4%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.7%2.6

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.3%2.0

7. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.0%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)23.5%2.0

9. Nick Sogard (L)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Harrison Bader (R)24.4%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.0%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.1%3.0

5. Willy Adames (R)26.2%3.0

6. Daniel Susac (R)19.4%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)22.7%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.6%2.0

9. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Evan Carter (L)18.9%3.0

2. Sam Haggerty (L)22.7%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)19.8%3.0

4. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.0%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.2%3.0

6. Alejandro Osuna (L)19.8%2.4

7. Jake Burger (R)23.7%2.0

8. Justin Foscue (R)24.1%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.9%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.2%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.6%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)24.3%2.3

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.7%2.0

7. Edgar Quero (L)24.6%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.4%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.5%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)19.1%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.3%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.8%2.9

6. César Prieto (L)23.9%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.2%2.0

8. Thomas Saggese (R)25.1%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.8%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.8%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.0%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.8%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)26.5%2.9

6. Dominic Smith (L)18.7%2.0

7. Jorge Mateo (R)21.0%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.7%2.0

9. José Azócar (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.8%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)20.7%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)14.9%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)23.9%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (L)24.6%3.0

6. Sal Frelick (L)15.6%2.5

7. Andrew Vaughn (R)19.7%2.0

8. Joey Ortiz (R)21.2%2.0

9. Luis Rengifo (L)15.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Leo Rivas (L)27.8%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.6%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)16.2%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.0%3.0

5. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.0%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)20.8%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)20.9%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)28.3%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.5%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.4%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.5%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.5%3.0

6. Joey Wiemer (R)29.8%2.0

7. José Tena (L)24.4%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)17.8%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB16.7%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)15.3%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.6%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.4%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.8%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)29.3%3.0

6. Isaac Collins (L)21.7%2.1

7. Lane Thomas (R)25.9%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.8%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB17.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Daniel Schneemann (L)24.7%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.4%3.0

3. Petey Halpin (L)22.8%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)25.8%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)19.5%2.5

6. Steven Kwan (L)12.9%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.1%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.9%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.2% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)17.3%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (R)19.4%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)18.4%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)21.2%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)19.3%3.0

6. Victor Caratini (R)24.4%2.0

7. Tristan Gray (L)28.3%2.0

8. Ryan Kreidler (R)20.5%2.0

9. James Outman (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)24.0%3.0

2. Carlos Cortes (L)14.8%3.0

3. Colby Thomas (R)23.6%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.2%3.0

5. Alika Williams (R)25.3%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.9%2.3

7. Lawrence Butler (L)25.1%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (L)19.7%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.2%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.0%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)17.5%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)19.6%2.9

5. Jorge Barrosa (L)27.4%2.0

6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.3%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)21.8%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.9%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)19.8%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.5%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)19.1%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)23.1%3.0

5. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.4%2.8

6. Brett Baty (L)24.1%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)19.8%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)21.0%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.3% K/BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.1%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)19.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)28.1%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.1%2.6

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.1%2.0

7. Miguel Amaya (R)22.1%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.0%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)18.4%2.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)23.3%2.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.3%2.0

4. Tyler O'Neill (R)27.0%2.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.5%1.6

6. Leody Taveras (R)25.2%1.0

7. Blaze Alexander (R)25.1%1.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%1.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, May 17, 2026

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, May 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Paul Skenes (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against HOU. He's missing bats at a 24% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and HOU has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Paul Skenes (PIT) (98) — about 5.9 K vs PHI: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) (88) — about 5.9 K vs LAD: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (79) — about 5.5 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (76) — about 6.0 K vs CIN: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (68) — about 5.5 K vs SD: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 26% of the time in this spot — Roki Sasaki is the arm to exploit it (67).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Richard Lovelady is the arm to exploit it (0).
HOU is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nathan Eovaldi is the arm to exploit it (100).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Colin Rea is the arm to exploit it (44).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.5 strikeouts. Top play Nathan Eovaldi punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 17, 2026)?: Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against HOU. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 17, 2026: Nathan Eovaldi (~6.4 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Grayson Rodriguez (~5.9 K), Michael Soroka (~5.5 K), Gavin Williams (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, May 17, 2026?: Nathan Eovaldi punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.