Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CHC. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, June 21, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Logan Gilbert (~6.1 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 63% — a +15% return.

1:35 PM ET

CINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup62 1:35 PM ET

MILaway

ATLhomeTop matchup34 1:40 PM ET

WSHaway

TBhomeTop matchup14 1:40 PM ET

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup54 1:40 PM ET

SFaway

MIAhomeTop matchup52 2:10 PM ET

CLEaway

HOUhomeTop matchup33 2:10 PM ET

STLaway

KChomeTop matchup51 2:20 PM ET

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 2:35 PM ET

SDaway

TEXhomeTop matchup53 3:10 PM ET

PITaway

COLhomeTop matchup33 3:15 PM ET

MINaway

AZhomeTop matchup32 4:05 PM ET

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup74 4:10 PM ET

BALaway

LADhomeTop matchup58 4:10 PM ET

BOSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup60 7:20 PM ET

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup35

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.2% K / BF

vs LHB28.7%

vs RHB32.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 13vs TB9

May 19@ NYY9

May 24vs PIT8

Jun 9vs PHI11

Jun 16@ BOS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.2%3.0

2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0

3. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.5%3.0

4. Michael Busch (L)24.0%3.0

5. Alex Bregman (R)17.2%3.0

6. Ian Happ (L)27.6%2.5

7. Matt Shaw (R)18.9%2.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)20.7%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 24vs TEX14

May 30@ TB7

Jun 5@ LAD6

Jun 10vs HOU9

Jun 16@ AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zack Gelof (R)26.1%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)30.2%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)19.4%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.3%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)16.7%3.0

6. Carlos Cortes (L)22.4%2.2

7. Lawrence Butler (L)23.7%2.0

8. Henry Bolte (R)31.3%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.2% K / BF

vs LHB30.4%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ PHI9

May 26@ NYM8

Jun 3vs KC9

Jun 9@ SD7

Jun 15vs NYM7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)21.0%3.0

2. Amed Rosario (R)24.0%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)15.2%3.0

5. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.2%2.9

6. José Caballero (R)20.5%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.8%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.5%2.0

9. Ali Sánchez (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB29.6%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22@ KC6

May 27@ ATH6

Jun 2vs NYM8

Jun 9@ BAL5

Jun 16vs BAL10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mickey Gasper (L)17.7%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.5%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.3%3.0

5. Jarren Duran (L)26.4%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%2.1

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.3%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)28.1%2.0

9. Andruw Monasterio (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ SD2

May 25vs COL8

Jun 1@ AZ3

Jun 7vs LAA2

Jun 14@ CWS8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.3%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)23.8%3.0

4. Samuel Basallo (L)21.9%2.4

5. Leody Taveras (L)22.4%2.0

6. Colton Cowser (L)25.8%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)31.7%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)24.6%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22@ SF7

May 28vs MIN5

Jun 2@ MIN2

Jun 10vs ATL6

Jun 16@ NYY4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.0%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)21.5%3.0

3. Matt Vierling (R)19.5%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.2%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)31.0%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)27.5%2.4

7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.4%2.0

8. Jake Rogers (R)24.6%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.0 BF

Expected batters faced25.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 23@ LAA6

May 28vs HOU6

Jun 2@ STL7

Jun 9@ KC3

Jun 14@ BOS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.5%3.0

2. Samad Taylor (R)23.1%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.5%3.0

4. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)22.7%3.0

6. Ty France (R)24.5%3.0

7. Nick Solak (R)20.9%3.0

8. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

9. Blake Hunt (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 5vs SD4

May 29@ COL5

Jun 3@ MIL4

Jun 8vs WSH7

Jun 14vs CHC7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)24.2%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)16.5%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)28.6%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)17.0%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)25.7%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)31.2%3.0

7. Leo Jiménez (R)22.2%2.2

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs PIT7

May 27@ MIL9

Jun 2vs TEX9

Jun 9@ NYM6

Jun 15vs SD9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.1%3.0

2. Lane Thomas (R)22.8%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.7%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)16.2%3.0

6. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.9

7. John Rave (L)23.3%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)21.9%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs MIN9

May 28vs ATL7

Jun 3vs BAL5

Jun 9@ TB3

Jun 16vs TOR6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.6%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.9%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)19.0%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)20.0%3.0

5. Dominic Canzone (L)22.3%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)20.0%2.6

7. Victor Robles (R)20.5%2.0

8. Colt Emerson (L)25.0%2.0

9. Weston Wilson (R)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 24vs HOU6

May 29@ STL2

Jun 4vs ATH5

Jun 10@ COL7

Jun 15vs COL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.2%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.9%3.0

4. Brandon Valenzuela (R)23.1%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)23.4%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.0%2.4

7. Davis Schneider (R)26.2%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.4%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 23vs CLE6

May 29@ LAD4

Jun 4vs SD8

Jun 9@ TOR5

Jun 15vs MIA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)21.6%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)15.8%3.0

4. Marcus Semien (R)22.6%3.0

5. Eric Wagaman (R)22.7%3.0

6. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.7%2.6

7. Mark Vientos (R)26.0%2.0

8. Luis Torrens (R)21.2%2.0

9. Zack Short (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17@ MIN3

May 23vs LAD4

Jun 3vs SF5

Jun 9@ ATH7

Jun 16vs CLE5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.4%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)21.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.3%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)12.5%3.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)21.3%2.4

6. Austin Riley (R)24.9%2.0

7. Eli White (R)19.4%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)29.2%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 23@ CHC6

May 29vs MIL7

Jun 4vs PIT1

Jun 9@ LAA5

Jun 15vs DET9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)18.3%3.0

2. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.7%3.0

3. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.4%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.4%2.1

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.5%2.0

6. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)12.8%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.9%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 29vs MIN6

Jun 4@ HOU4

Jun 10vs LAD4

Jun 15@ ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.5%3.0

2. Willi Castro (L)22.6%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)16.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)26.9%2.8

5. Troy Johnston (L)17.9%2.0

6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.0

7. Edouard Julien (L)25.1%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)25.4%2.0

9. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)19.8%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)24.7%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)21.6%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)21.4%3.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)26.4%3.0

6. Brooks Lee (L)15.0%2.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)17.6%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)25.5%2.0

9. Luke Keaschall (R)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs WSH4

May 27@ BOS1

Jun 2vs TOR6

Jun 7vs PIT4

Jun 14@ NYM2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)20.6%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)24.5%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)16.3%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)21.6%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.5%3.0

6. Blake Perkins (L)24.9%2.6

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.9%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 8vs AZ6

Apr 13@ LAD7

Apr 29vs WSH5

May 21@ WSH3

May 26vs CIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.1%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.8%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)29.2%2.2

5. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)17.7%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.0%2.0

8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 23@ AZ5

May 29vs SF2

Jun 3@ LAA5

Jun 10vs CHC7

Jun 15@ CHC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)16.2%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.5%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.3%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.5%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)18.8%2.6

6. Tyler Callihan (L)24.9%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)18.0%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)26.7%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.2 BF

Expected batters faced18.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ HOU6

Jun 10vs MIL4

Jun 16vs PIT6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)30.2%2.3

2. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.0%2.0

3. Jo Adell (R)24.2%2.0

4. Oswald Peraza (R)25.1%2.0

5. Christian Moore (R)30.7%2.0

6. Denzer Guzman (R)19.8%2.0

7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.7%2.0

8. Wade Meckler (L)20.3%2.0

9. Jose Siri (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 23@ PHI5

May 29vs BOS3

Jun 4@ NYY4

Jun 9vs NYY7

Jun 16@ MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.0%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)22.5%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)18.6%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)23.4%2.4

6. Yainer Diaz (R)18.9%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)25.8%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)20.5%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ DET4

Jun 15@ TEX2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)16.9%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.7%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)21.9%2.6

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.6%2.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.2%2.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)22.6%2.0

7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.1%2.0

8. Jordan Lawlar (R)23.9%2.0

9. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.1 BF

Expected batters faced19.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs MIA5

Jun 9@ SF4

Jun 15vs KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.4%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.4%2.1

3. Cedric Mullins (L)19.1%2.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)19.4%2.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)22.4%2.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)16.2%2.0

7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)21.1%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)22.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB15.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 23vs SEA2

May 29@ TEX5

Jun 3@ CIN8

Jun 9vs TEX3

Jun 14vs HOU4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)17.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.4%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.4%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.4%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.0%2.9

7. Jimmy Crooks (L)23.8%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.0%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB15.2%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 24vs DET4

May 30vs TOR7

Jun 5@ TOR4

Jun 10vs SEA5

Jun 16@ SEA2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Tucker (L)20.7%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)21.0%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)16.1%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)14.8%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)21.1%3.0

6. Tommy Edman (L)20.8%2.8

7. Ryan Ward (L)25.9%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)25.7%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22@ NYY1

May 29vs LAA5

Jun 3vs DET1

Jun 9vs BOS2

Jun 15@ LAD6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.3%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.1%3.0

3. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.5%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.4%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)20.3%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)17.0%2.6

7. Jacob Young (R)21.7%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.5%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)14.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19vs CLE1

May 26vs LAA7

May 31@ CWS4

Jun 6vs SEA1

Jun 11vs MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)18.2%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)19.1%3.0

3. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.7%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.8%2.6

5. Randal Grichuk (R)21.5%2.0

6. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

7. Braden Montgomery (L)22.0%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)19.4%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.9% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 29@ TEX3

May 5vs TEX2

May 17@ NYM1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)21.6%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)18.2%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)20.9%3.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.6%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)24.0%2.5

6. Noelvi Marte (R)21.1%2.0

7. Matt McLain (R)26.1%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)19.0%2.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs TB1

Jun 10vs AZ4

Jun 15@ PHI1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)7.9%3.0

2. Bryce Eldridge (L)19.8%2.2

3. Matt Chapman (R)21.0%2.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.8%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.4%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)25.2%2.0

7. Casey Schmitt (R)21.1%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.3%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, June 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K, with Reid Detmers (LAA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CHC. He's missing bats at a 32% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CHC has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Reid Detmers (LAA) (74) — about 6.3 K vs ATH: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Chase Burns (CIN) (62) — about 6.0 K vs NYY: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (60) — about 6.1 K vs BOS: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (58) — about 5.9 K vs BAL: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Davis Martin (CWS) (54) — about 5.7 K vs DET: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Jack Perkins is the arm to exploit it (21).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Emmet Sheehan is the arm to exploit it (58).
MIA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Logan Webb is the arm to exploit it (52).
ATH is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Reid Detmers is the arm to exploit it (74).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, June 21, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CHC. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, June 21, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Logan Gilbert (~6.1 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.