Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?

Joe Ryan (MIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against TEX. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, June 18, 2026: Joe Ryan (~5.6 K), Bryan Woo (~5.3 K), Landen Roupp (~5.5 K), Sean Burke (~5.1 K), Parker Messick (~5.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 63% — a +15% return.

Final · 4–3

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–2

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup73 Final · 9–3

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup91 Final · 6–4

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–1

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup73 Postponed

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup82 Final · 6–14

STLaway

KChomeTop matchup43 Final · 0–5

LAAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup72

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB26.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20vs HOU9

May 26@ CWS9

Jun 1vs CWS9

Jun 6vs KC5

Jun 12vs STL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)18.9%3.0

2. Josh Jung (R)21.2%3.0

3. Wyatt Langford (R)20.6%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.2%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)24.4%2.6

6. Josh Smith (L)17.4%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)24.2%2.0

8. Alejandro Osuna (L)18.1%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-125-106

DKDraftKings-120-106

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOVBovada-125-105

BRBetRivers-124-107

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs CWS8

May 24@ KC4

May 30vs AZ9

Jun 5@ DET7

Jun 11@ BAL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.1%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.8%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.6%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.3%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)21.0%2.3

7. Colton Cowser (L)25.4%2.0

8. Blaze Alexander (R)22.3%2.0

9. Jackson Holliday (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+110-134

FANFanatics+100-130

DKDraftKings-105-121

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOVBovada+105-135

BRBetRivers+104-137

We project 5.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ AZ3

May 25vs AZ7

Jun 1@ MIL4

Jun 6@ CHC5

Jun 12vs CHC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.7%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)21.7%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.6%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)18.8%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)25.3%2.5

6. Eli White (R)19.9%2.0

7. Jorge Mateo (R)23.3%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.9%2.0

9. Sandy León (L)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+126-168

DKDraftKings+121-154

BOVBovada+125-165

BRBetRivers+117-157

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs CHC5

May 20@ SEA5

May 26vs MIN8

May 31vs DET6

Jun 13vs LAD6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)21.5%3.0

2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.9%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)15.4%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.8%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.2%2.8

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)19.7%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)25.5%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ DET6

May 24@ PHI6

May 30vs BOS4

Jun 5@ TEX4

Jun 10vs NYY4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)23.8%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.1%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)23.8%3.0

4. Andrew Vaughn (R)15.9%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)20.4%3.0

6. Gary Sánchez (R)20.7%2.1

7. Blake Perkins (R)19.7%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+120-160

DKDraftKings+115-146

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+117-157

BOVBovada+130-170

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs SEA5

Jun 2@ CHC5

Jun 7@ HOU3

Jun 12vs COL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.7%3.0

2. Nick Madrigal (R)20.0%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)19.9%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.1%3.0

5. Oswald Peraza (R)26.9%3.0

6. Christian Moore (R)27.2%2.2

7. Denzer Guzman (R)25.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)23.2%2.0

9. Jose Siri (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+110-134

FANFanatics+100-130

BRBetRivers+118-157

DKDraftKings+114-146

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOVBovada+105-135

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20vs CIN5

May 26@ SD5

Jun 2vs SD8

Jun 7vs CWS4

Jun 13@ MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)22.1%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)20.2%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)16.1%3.0

4. Jared Young (L)20.3%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)25.4%2.1

6. Marcus Semien (R)22.6%2.0

7. Brett Baty (L)25.1%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)28.1%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+124-152

DKDraftKings+115-147

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOVBovada+120-160

BRBetRivers+112-148

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ NYY8

May 25vs MIA6

May 30@ BAL4

Jun 5vs BAL5

Jun 12vs NYY3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mickey Gasper (L)19.2%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.6%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.7%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.8%3.0

5. Jarren Duran (L)27.0%2.6

6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)17.0%2.0

7. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)22.4%2.0

9. Andruw Monasterio (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-172+128

DKDraftKings-164+128

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOVBovada-170+130

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs TOR7

May 24vs TB4

May 30@ ATH10

Jun 5vs BOS4

Jun 12@ TOR2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.3%3.0

2. Randal Grichuk (R)21.5%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)17.3%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)24.1%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)21.9%3.0

6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.3

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.5%2.0

8. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-110-110

FANFanatics-115-115

DKDraftKings-115-110

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOVBovada-115-115

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ COL5

May 26vs HOU4

May 31vs KC10

Jun 6vs CLE2

Jun 12@ BOS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)20.4%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)24.3%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)20.9%3.0

4. Royce Lewis (R)24.4%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.2%3.0

6. Brooks Lee (L)15.6%2.8

7. Victor Caratini (L)18.2%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)24.8%2.0

9. Luke Keaschall (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+104-128

FANFanatics+105-140

DKDraftKings+107-137

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOVBovada+105-135

BRBetRivers+106-141

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ KC9

May 24vs MIN4

May 30@ CLE7

Jun 5@ NYY3

Jun 12vs TEX7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)17.7%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.4%3.0

3. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.6%3.0

4. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)14.3%2.0

6. Nathan Lukes (L)17.5%2.0

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)31.0%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.6%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+106-130

FANFanatics+110-145

DKDraftKings+109-139

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada+105-135

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ TB6

May 26vs TB9

Jun 2@ BOS6

Jun 7@ TOR3

Jun 12vs SD1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)20.3%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.3%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)13.9%3.0

4. Dominic Canzone (L)18.4%3.0

5. Cole Young (L)18.1%3.0

6. Colt Emerson (L)23.6%3.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)29.6%2.3

8. Victor Robles (R)16.5%2.0

9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+104-138

DKDraftKings+118-151

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOVBovada+105-135

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs SEA8

May 27vs NYY4

Jun 2@ CIN8

Jun 7@ MIN7

Jun 13vs HOU1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)16.6%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)21.3%3.0

4. Nelson Velázquez (R)23.6%3.0

5. Alec Burleson (L)14.6%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)18.7%2.0

7. Blaze Jordan (R)22.0%2.0

8. José Fermín (R)17.0%2.0

9. Pedro Pagés (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+122-150

FANFanatics+125-165

DKDraftKings+115-147

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+120-160

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.4 BF

Expected batters faced18.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.8%2.4

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.3%2.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)22.2%2.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.8%2.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)28.0%2.0

6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.7%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)18.0%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.4%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)29.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+118-158

FANFanatics+120-160

DKDraftKings+126-162

BOVBovada+120-160

BRBetRivers+120-162

We project 4.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19vs PIT9

May 25@ MIL10

May 31vs CHC4

Jun 6vs CIN4

Jun 13@ MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lane Thomas (R)22.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)15.9%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)24.7%3.0

4. Starling Marte (R)23.5%3.0

5. Salvador Perez (R)19.8%2.3

6. Carter Jensen (L)22.5%2.0

7. Nick Loftin (R)17.6%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)21.9%2.0

9. Michael Massey (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-154+116

BRBetRivers-157+118

BOVBovada-150+115

We project 4.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.2 BF

Expected batters faced18.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 8@ BOS2

Jun 1vs SF5

Jun 7@ COL4

Jun 13vs PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)24.1%2.3

2. David Fry (R)28.9%2.0

3. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.8%2.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.4%2.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)23.6%2.0

6. Gabriel Arias (R)25.1%2.0

7. Stuart Fairchild (R)26.0%2.0

8. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%2.0

9. Austin Hedges (R)17.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-124+102

FANFanatics-125-105

DKDraftKings-121-105

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BRBetRivers-121-109

BOVBovada-130+100

We project 4.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ MIA10

May 24vs WSH2

May 30@ CIN2

Jun 5vs PIT5

Jun 13@ NYM4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)13.9%3.0

2. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.7%2.8

3. Matt Chapman (R)20.1%2.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.6%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.1%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)26.0%2.0

7. Casey Schmitt (R)19.9%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)25.6%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-144

DKDraftKings+102-131

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOVBovada+115-150

BRBetRivers+110-148

We project 4.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 30@ CHC2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zack Gelof (R)24.7%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)23.4%2.3

3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.0%2.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)17.7%2.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)15.8%2.0

6. Jonah Heim (L)19.7%2.0

7. Carlos Cortes (L)15.6%2.0

8. Henry Bolte (R)22.5%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)17.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

We project 3.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026

Joe Ryan (MIN) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, June 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K, with Bryan Woo (SEA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Joe Ryan

Joe Ryan (MIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against TEX. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TEX has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Bryan Woo (SEA) (91) — about 5.3 K vs BAL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (82) — about 5.5 K vs ATL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Sean Burke (CWS) (73) — about 5.1 K vs NYY: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (73) — about 5.0 K vs MIL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Gage Jump (ATH) (72) — about 5.2 K vs LAA: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CLE is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shane Drohan is the arm to exploit it (40).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Gage Jump is the arm to exploit it (72).
NYM is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Aaron Nola is the arm to exploit it (69).
ATL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Landen Roupp is the arm to exploit it (82).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 7.1 strikeouts. Top play Joe Ryan punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, June 18, 2026)?: Joe Ryan (MIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.6 K against TEX. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, June 18, 2026: Joe Ryan (~5.6 K), Bryan Woo (~5.3 K), Landen Roupp (~5.5 K), Sean Burke (~5.1 K), Parker Messick (~5.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, June 18, 2026?: Joe Ryan punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.