Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top total bases spot: Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is racking up bases at .505 TB/PA against righties this year — and .462 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 44% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties lately — .571 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (88) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.700), hitter's park.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .374 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571), hitter's park.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (84) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .372 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.700), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .393 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (83) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an elite bat at .550 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Willi Castro (COL) (82) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .382 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.700), hitter's park.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (82) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: an excellent bat at .538 into an arm tough on the same side (.300).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .507 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: TJ Rumfield (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .486 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- RHP Kai-Wei Teng has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Manzardo (CLE), and Brayan Rocchio (CLE).
- RHP Jack Perkins has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Zach Neto (LAA), Jo Adell (LAA), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA).
Platoon edges to target
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .444 against righties this year.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .399 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .392 against righties this year.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .341 against righties this year.
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Brandon Lowe (PIT) at 100.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.