Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, June 19, 2026
Top home runs spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. The righty is going deep on .054 HR/PA against righties this year — and .073 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Roki Sasaki has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Roki Sasaki. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .050 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.057), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (83) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (81) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036), hot bat.
- Max Muncy (LAD) (80) vs RHP Trey Gibson: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), due to bounce back.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (70) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: solid bat at .034 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (69) vs RHP Michael Soroka: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (66) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.