Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, June 20, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The lefty is going deep on .057 HR/PA against righties this year — and .119 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Walbert Ureña too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (88) vs RHP Zac Gallen: big-time bat at .055 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (78) vs RHP Paul Skenes: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (76) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (71) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .047 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (70) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (67) vs RHP Troy Melton: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.188).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (62) vs RHP Taj Bradley: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.143).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .033 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.