Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?

Angel Genao (CLE) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 23, 2026: Angel Genao (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Pete Alonso (98), Steven Kwan (98), Drake Baldwin (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 23, 2026?

No — Angel Genao didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Angel Genao (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .307 against lefties this year. Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH). RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Scores lock at first pitch and are graded against the box score the next morning — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

● 3–8 · Top 9

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup82 Final · 3–1

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup98 Final · 4–6

STLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup70 ● 2–6 · Top 9

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup88 ● 7–9 · Bot 7

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup66 ● 6–6 · Mid 6

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup74 ● 0–1 · Top 9

NYMaway

CWShomeTop matchup72 ● 0–5 · Bot 6

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 ● 5–2 · Top 3

CLEaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 ● 3–3 · Bot 4

SFaway

BOShomeTop matchup74 ● 0–1 · Bot 1

CHCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup86 ● 0–0 · Top 2

MINaway

SDhomeTop matchup96 ● 0–0 · Bot 1

PITaway

LADhomeTop matchup94 ● 0–0 · Top 1

CINaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 7:10 PM ET

ATLaway

MILhomeTop matchup97

PROJ9 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Not starting61 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 331 shownScore

106 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Steven KwanLF
CLE@COL· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T1
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@COL· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T1
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T1
Jo AdellRF
CLE@COL· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T1
Jahmai JonesDH
BOSvsSF· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T1
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T1
Henry BolteCF
ATH@HOU· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T1
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSF· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T1
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSF· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T1
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@KC· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T1
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T1
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T1
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@BOS· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T1
Alec Burleson1B
STL@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T1
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@KC· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T1
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T1
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-5
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T1
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@COL· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T1
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@MIA· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T1
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsDET· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T1
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T1
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsDET· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T1
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T1
Jonah CoxCF
SF@BOS· 2-for-2
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T1
Edmundo SosaLF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T1
Brian ServenC
ATH@HOU· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T1
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T1
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T1
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
T1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsTOR· 2-for-4
2H live
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T1
Myles StrawCF
TOR@NYY· 2-for-3
2H live
Proj 0.8 H, #268
32
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SD· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T32
Yandy DíazDH
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T32
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T32
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #25
T32
Daylen LileLF
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T32
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T32
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T32
Agustín RamírezC
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T32
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T32
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T32
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T32
Keibert RuizC
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T32
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsATH· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T32
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T32
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T32
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T32
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T32
Liam HicksC
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T32
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T32
Iván HerreraDH
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T32
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T32
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T32
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T32
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsDET· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T32
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T32
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DET@KC· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T32
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T32
Victor BericotoLF
SF@BOS· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T32
Willy AdamesSS
SF@BOS· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T32
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@KC· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T32
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T32
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T32
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T32
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T32
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T32
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T32
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@LAD· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T32
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsCLE· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T32
Austin HedgesC
CLE@COL· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T32
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T32
Tommy White3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T32
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T32
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T32
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T32
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T32
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T32
Deyvison De Los Santos3B
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T32
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T32
Ramón Urías3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T32
José FermínLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T32
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T32
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T32
Gustavo CamperoOF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T32
Logan O'HoppeC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T32
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T32
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T32
Max ClarkCF
DET@KC· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T32
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T32
Corey JulksLF
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T32
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T32
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T32
Brett SullivanC
COLvsCLE· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T32
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@AZ· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T32
George SpringerDH
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T32
Javier BáezSS
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T32
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T32
Connor WongC
BOSvsSF· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T32
Elias DíazC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T32
Pedro PagésC
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T32
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsDET· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T32
John RaveRF
KCvsDET· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T32
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T32
Austin WellsC
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1H live
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T32
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-1
1H live
Proj 0.9 H
T32
Joe MackC
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1H live
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Angel Genao (CLE) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 board at 100, with Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) and Pete Alonso (BAL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Angel Genao

Angel Genao (CLE) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is hitting .302 H/PA against righties this year — and .281 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .259 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tomoyuki Sugano. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (100) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .264 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.256), due to bounce back.
Pete Alonso (BAL) (98) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hot bat.
Steven Kwan (CLE) (98) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .238 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hitter's park.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (97) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a solid bat at .238 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (96) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a solid bat at .249 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
Ty France (SD) (96) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .255 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259), hot bat.
Michael Harris II (ATL) (95) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a strong bat at .252 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH).
RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

Platoon edges to target

Angel Genao (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .307 against lefties this year.
Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Angel Genao (CLE) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Angel Genao (CLE), Pete Alonso (BAL), Ty France (SD), Michael Harris II (ATL), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Chandler Simpson (TB). Cold but due to bounce back: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL).

Lineup watch

9 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How it played out

1 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Angel Genao finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?: Angel Genao (CLE) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 23, 2026: Angel Genao (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Pete Alonso (98), Steven Kwan (98), Drake Baldwin (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 23, 2026?: No — Angel Genao didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Angel Genao (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .307 against lefties this year. Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Angel Genao (CLE) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daylen Lile (WSH), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH). RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Angel Genao (CLE), Pete Alonso (BAL), Ty France (SD), Michael Harris II (ATL), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Chandler Simpson (TB). Cold but due to bounce back: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), and Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.