Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top hits spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 94, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is hitting .251 H/PA against righties this year — and .375 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .348 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (93) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (92) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (87) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (81) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .264 into an arm tough on the same side (.150), hot bat.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (81) vs RHP Aaron Civale: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.409).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (79) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (79) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: a strong bat at .265 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Jo Adell (LAA), and Wade Meckler (LAA).
- RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .314 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .261 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .317 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Konnor Griffin (PIT), Kyle Stowers (MIA), and TJ Rumfield (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Alec Burleson (STL), Ben Rice (NYY), Samad Taylor (SD), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC).
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.