Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Thursday, October 8, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: José Ramírez
José Ramírez (CLE) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Hagen Smith. The righty is running at .079 SB/PA against lefties this year — and .071 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 6% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Hagen Smith too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (41) vs LHP Hagen Smith: a high-volume bat at .031.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (35) vs LHP Parker Messick: an active bat at .024, hot bat.
- Angel Martínez (CLE) (31) vs LHP Hagen Smith: an active bat at .023, due to bounce back.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (30) vs LHP Hagen Smith: an active bat at .019.
- Brayan Rocchio (CLE) (25) vs LHP Hagen Smith: an active bat at .021.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (24) vs LHP Parker Messick: an occasional bat at .018, due to bounce back.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) (18) vs LHP Parker Messick: an occasional bat at .015, hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .079 against lefties this year.
- Angel Martínez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .033 against lefties this year.
- Brayan Rocchio (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .030 against lefties this year.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .019 against lefties this year.
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .011 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the stolen bases board is
The Stolen Bases board projects the chance a runner swipes a bag. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The runner's speed and attempt rate.
- The opposing catcher's arm (we fold in his caught-stealing rate).
- The pitcher's time to the plate.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
The heaviest-juiced board on the site — longshot prices that our model can't overcome. No edge, but the runner-×-catcher projection is a genuinely sharp ranking. Transparency board.
How to use it
Great for reading steal spots (a burner vs a weak arm); just not a market you beat at those prices.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays