Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top total bases spot: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The righty is racking up bases at .494 TB/PA against righties this year — and .773 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 52% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting squared up by righties lately — .667 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Merrill Kelly too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .475 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.435).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (90) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .490 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.429), due to bounce back.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (88) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .456 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.348), hot bat.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (87) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .483 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (84) vs RHP Brandon Woodruff: an excellent bat at .517 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (83) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .428 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.708).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (83) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: an excellent bat at .497 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.489).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Zack Littell has been getting squared up by righties — .514 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Samuel Basallo (BAL), and Adley Rutschman (BAL).
- RHP Emmet Sheehan has been getting squared up by righties — .454 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Gavin Sheets (SD).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Joc Pederson (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Daulton Varsho (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .553 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .448 against righties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .482 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .477 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .438 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.