Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is going deep on .048 HR/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Michael King has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael King too — .389 across 18 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (83) vs RHP Sonny Gray: big-time bat at .061 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.057), due to bounce back.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (81) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: big-time bat at .065 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (80) vs LHP Cionel Pérez: elite bat at .065 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (76) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: elite bat at .067 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (74) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (67) vs RHP Brady Singer: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (63) vs RHP Zack Littell: big-time bat at .054 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .077 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.