Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026
Top home runs spot: Joshua Báez
Joshua Báez (STL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. The righty is going deep on .235 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .235 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Cristopher Sánchez has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Cristopher Sánchez. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Lake Bachar: big-time bat at .062 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (94) vs RHP Nolan McLean: elite bat at .072 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (89) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (79) vs RHP Nick Martinez: big-time bat at .059 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), hot bat.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (73) vs LHP Blake Snell: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (67) vs RHP Shane Baz: big-time bat at .062 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (64) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Joshua Báez (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .235 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .080 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
9 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Joshua Báez finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the home runs board is
The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
- The park's home-run environment and the wind.
- How hard and how often he hits it in the air.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.
How to use it
Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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