Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026
Top rbis spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Lake Bachar. The lefty is driving in runs at .141 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .158 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Lake Bachar has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .053 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Lake Bachar, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (97) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179), due to bounce back.
- Manny Machado (SD) (96) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185).
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (96) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.231).
- Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) (93) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (90) vs LHP Sean Newcomb: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.048).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (89) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .212 against lefties this year.
- Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
9 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays