MLB moneyline & run totals — Wednesday, June 10, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
BOSBoston Red Sox46%+119fair+125mktModel lean+2.9%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓54%-119fair-148mkt-2.9%
NYYNew York Yankees✓52%-106fair+101mktModel lean+3.8%
CLECleveland Guardians48%+106fair-120mkt-3.8%
WSHWashington Nationals52%-108fair-108mktModel lean+2.2%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓48%+108fair-110mkt-2.2%
CINCincinnati Reds50%-101fair+141mktModel lean+10.5%
SDSan Diego Padres✓50%+101fair-170mkt-10.5%
SEASeattle Mariners45%+120fair-110mkt-4.8%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓55%-120fair-108mktModel lean+4.8%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%+108fair-205mkt-16.3%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓52%-108fair+170mktModel lean+16.3%
MINMinnesota Twins✓51%-104fair+148mktModel lean+12.1%
DETDetroit Tigers49%+104fair-175mkt-12.1%
AZArizona Diamondbacks48%+109fair-115mkt-3.4%
MIAMiami Marlins✓52%-109fair-104mktModel lean+3.4%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓47%+114fair-136mkt-8.6%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%-114fair+115mktModel lean+8.6%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓47%+111fair+114mktModel lean+2.6%
NYMNew York Mets53%-111fair-135mkt-2.6%
TEXTexas Rangers✓48%+108fair-120mkt-4.5%
KCKansas City Royals52%-108fair+103mktModel lean+4.5%
ATLAtlanta Braves49%+105fair-149mkt-8.6%
CWSChicago White Sox✓51%-105fair+125mktModel lean+8.6%
CHCChicago Cubs47%+111fair-170mkt-13.2%
COLColorado Rockies✓53%-111fair+144mktModel lean+13.2%
MILMilwaukee Brewers50%-101fair-108mktModel lean+0.4%
ATHAthletics✓50%+101fair-110mkt-0.4%
HOUHouston Astros48%+109fair-101mkt-0.5%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓52%-109fair-116mktModel lean+0.5%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.