Which pitcher has the best walks allowed matchup today (Sunday, June 28, 2026)?

Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.7 BB against SF.

What are the best pitcher walks props today?

The top projected starts on Sunday, June 28, 2026: Chris Sale (~1.7 BB), Ryan Rolison (~0.9 BB), Aaron Civale (~1.4 BB), Sonny Gray (~2.1 BB), Cionel Pérez (~0.9 BB). The full board ranks every starter.

Why are pitcher walk lines usually 1.5?

The average start produces right around two walks, and books shade the line to 1.5 with juice doing the fine-tuning. That makes the price, not the number, the thing to read — over 1.5 at −160 and at +120 are different bets entirely.

Does the opposing lineup really change a walk prop?

More than any other pitcher prop. Chase-heavy lineups turn borderline pitches into strikes and at-bats into quick outs; patient ones force full counts. The same command profile can project half a walk apart depending on who's standing in.

How is the walks allowed score calculated?

Ranked by walk risk against today's lineup — his command, the lineup's plate discipline, and his workload. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected walks number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.

Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?

Yes — the board surfaces the best walks spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.

Best MLB walks allowed matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 28, 2026 slate — ranked by walk risk against today's lineup. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 28, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 1/3 (33%) on our walks over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 5

1/333%

season 50%

Top 10

4/757%

season 50%

Full slate

12/2548%

season 53%

Top call Aaron Civale came through. Chris Sale didn't.

Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–4

WSHaway

BALhomeTop matchup51 Final · 4–9

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup45 Final · 3–2

TEXaway

TORhomeTop matchup58 Final · 7–5

HOUaway

DEThomeTop matchup34 Final · 5–6

SEAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup57 Final · 1–5

AZaway

TBhomeTop matchup57 Final · 5–4

PHIaway

NYMhomeTop matchup97 Final · 4–3

CHCaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

COLaway

MINhomeTop matchup37 Final · 5–4

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup42 Final · 1–2

MIAaway

STLhomeTop matchup25 Final · 1–4

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

ATLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–2

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup79 Final · 4–5

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup100

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Best MLB Walks Allowed Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026

Chris Sale (ATL) leads the Sunday, June 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 BB owns today's cleanest command matchup. Ryan Rolison (CHC) is next at 100. Walks are the most pitcher-controlled number on the board — and the market where a patient lineup quietly changes everything.

Top spot: Chris Sale

Chris Sale (ATL) projects for the stingiest free-pass line of the slate — about 1.7 BB against SF. Command is the skill, but the lineup sets the test: some clubs chase, some make an arm throw strike three.

The rest of the top of the board

Ryan Rolison (CHC) (100) — about 0.9 BB vs MIL.
Aaron Civale (ATH) (100) — about 1.4 BB vs LAA.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (100) — about 2.1 BB vs NYY.
Cionel Pérez (NYM) (97) — about 0.9 BB vs PHI.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (79) — about 1.8 BB vs SD.

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 1.4 BB. Chris Sale finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.

Walks are a two-sided discipline stat

No allowed stat is more in the pitcher's hands than the walk — no defense, no park, no batted-ball luck. But the batter's box matters more than most bettors credit: the spread between the league's most patient lineup and its most chase-happy one is worth a full walk a night to the same arm. The model reads both sides — this pitcher's strike-throwing against this lineup's swing decisions, split by hand. And because walk lines live down at 1.5, a half-walk of projection is an enormous gap: small line, coarse outcomes, price matters more than anywhere else.

How to read the walks allowed board

Every starter is scored 0–100 on tonight's command setup — his walk rate by handedness against how patiently this lineup actually swings. The projection is expected walks for the start; at a 1.5 line a projection near 1.0 or 2.0 is a real lean, and the juice decides whether it's worth anything. Graded against the box score, always.

Keep reading

What the walks allowed board is

The Walks Allowed board projects how many free passes a starter issues. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His control.
The lineup's patience.
Count leverage.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Walks are near-unpredictable at the margin and the market prices them efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

A read on a starter's command for the night; no edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays