Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Samad Taylor
Samad Taylor (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Emmet Sheehan. The righty is running at .100 SB/PA against righties this year — and .095 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 5% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Emmet Sheehan. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (100) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an elite bat at .065.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (93) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an elite bat at .063.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (90) vs LHP Sam Aldegheri: a high-volume bat at .037.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (83) vs RHP Brady Singer: an elite bat at .046.
- Sung-Mun Song (SD) (77) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: an elite bat at .051.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (76) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a high-volume bat at .040.
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) (75) vs RHP Brady Singer: a high-volume bat at .033, hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .152 against lefties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .063 against lefties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year.
- Sung-Mun Song (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .107 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 stolen bases matchups landed at least one stolen base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.