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Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsSunday, April 12, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, April 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, April 12, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 2/3 (67%) on our strikeout over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 3
2/367%
season 50%
Top 5
3/560%
season 45%
Full slate
14/2948%
season 51%

Play of the Day: Tarik Skubal , Cody Bolton , Grant Taylor

Top call Nick Pivetta came through. Jacob deGrom didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 68% ratea +25% return.

Δ2.3Tarik SkubalFinal MIA @ DETwe project 5.2 K vs the 7.5 lineUnder 7.52u+107
Δ2.2Grant TaylorFinal CWS @ KCwe project 3.7 K vs the 1.5 lineOver 1.52u+165
Δ1.7Cody BoltonFinal HOU @ SEAwe project 5.2 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51u-120

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.3% K / BF

vs LHB28.9%
vs RHB25.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jordan Beck (R)24.2%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.1%3.0
3. Mickey Moniak (L)20.0%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)27.0%2.9
5. TJ Rumfield (L)22.3%2.0
6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.1%2.0
7. Brenton Doyle (R)27.3%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)21.3%2.0
9. Kyle Karros (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers-104-129
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings+101-129
FDFanDuel+106-140
MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 6.1 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Pivetta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB28.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.2%3.0
2. Kyle Tucker (L)19.0%3.0
3. Andy Pages (R)23.1%3.0
4. Freddie Freeman (L)17.5%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)25.8%2.1
6. Alex Freeland (L)25.3%2.0
7. Dalton Rushing (L)23.1%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)18.4%2.0
9. Will Smith (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-182+139
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-147+115
FDFanDuel-174+130
MBMyBookie-182+130

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)26.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)24.7%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)20.7%3.0
5. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.5%2.5
6. Max Muncy (R)29.2%2.0
7. Jeff McNeil (L)21.8%2.0
8. Darell Hernaiz (R)21.8%2.0
9. Denzel Clarke (R)29.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+115-149
BRBetRivers+107-141
DKDraftKings+118-150
MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 6.2 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.4%
vs RHB27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.0%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)24.3%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.7%3.0
4. Yandy Díaz (R)16.3%3.0
5. Jake Fraley (L)19.3%2.0
6. Cedric Mullins (L)24.0%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)22.3%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)20.9%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-122-106
BRBetRivers-115-115
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-129+101
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-118-112
MBMyBookie-124-111

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Angel Martínez (R)18.7%3.0
2. Bo Naylor (L)20.8%3.0
3. CJ Kayfus (L)25.0%3.0
4. David Fry (R)23.4%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.2%2.5
6. Kyle Manzardo (L)23.9%2.0
7. Juan Brito (R)19.3%2.0
8. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.7%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-172+132
BRBetRivers-175+130
BOVBovada-165+125
FDFanDuel-158+118
MBMyBookie-173+124

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. TJ Friedl (L)22.4%3.0
2. Matt McLain (R)24.4%3.0
3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.5%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)20.4%3.0
5. Will Benson (L)27.4%3.0
6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.0%2.2
7. Spencer Steer (R)22.7%2.0
8. Noelvi Marte (R)20.9%2.0
9. Dane Myers (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-111-116
BRBetRivers-118-113
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-112-114
FDFanDuel-104-128

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.8% K / BF

vs LHB27.6%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)13.9%3.0
2. Daulton Varsho (L)21.2%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.2%3.0
4. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.8%3.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.0%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)19.1%2.1
7. Eloy Jiménez (R)20.9%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)17.6%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-145+112
BRBetRivers-127-106
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-129+101
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-144+108
MBMyBookie-148+107

We project 5.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)17.5%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.5%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)22.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)23.0%3.0
5. Dillon Dingler (R)22.5%3.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.0%3.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.0%2.5
8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.1%2.0
9. Javier Báez (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BRBetRivers-105-127
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+112-143
FDFanDuel+110-146
MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.3%
vs RHB19.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)20.5%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0
3. Aaron Judge (R)23.9%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.6%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.9%2.4
6. Amed Rosario (R)23.8%2.0
7. Austin Wells (L)23.9%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.3%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-161+124
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-165+129
FDFanDuel-158+118
MBMyBookie-163+117

We project 5.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →
★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 5.2 K, but the book line is 7.5 — so the play is Under 7.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 68% ratea +25% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Slater (R)27.3%3.0
2. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.9%3.0
3. Jakob Marsee (L)24.2%3.0
4. Otto Lopez (R)16.0%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.9%3.0
6. Connor Norby (R)19.8%2.2
7. Xavier Edwards (R)19.9%2.0
8. Liam Hicks (L)17.5%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-132+100
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-137+107
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-136+102
MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 5.2 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →
★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 5.2 K, but the book line is 3.5 — so the play is Over 3.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 68% ratea +25% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brendan Donovan (L)18.3%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (L)24.5%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.3%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)18.2%2.4
5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.6%2.0
6. Luke Raley (L)30.9%2.0
7. J.P. Crawford (L)22.1%2.0
8. Dominic Canzone (L)20.7%2.0
9. Cole Young (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-134+100
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-131+103
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-130-102
MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 5.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cody Bolton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)17.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.8%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.4%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)18.6%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)22.0%2.8
6. Joey Loperfido (L)26.7%2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)18.0%2.0
8. Taylor Trammell (L)24.3%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+101-128
FDFanDuel+104-138
MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 5.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)26.6%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)23.1%3.0
3. Brady House (R)26.2%3.0
4. Daylen Lile (L)16.7%3.0
5. CJ Abrams (L)17.6%3.0
6. Jacob Young (R)19.5%2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.4%2.0
8. Keibert Ruiz (L)17.2%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOLBetOnline-154+118
BRBetRivers-162+120
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-152+119
FDFanDuel-154+116
MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Woodruff's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)20.6%3.0
2. Chase Meidroth (R)24.4%3.0
3. Munetaka Murakami (L)30.6%3.0
4. Lenyn Sosa (R)21.9%3.0
5. Edgar Quero (R)21.3%2.8
6. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)24.1%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.6%2.0
9. Dustin Harris (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-145+111
BRBetRivers-148+112
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-156+122
FDFanDuel-140+106
MBMyBookie-147+106

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)20.5%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)25.7%3.0
4. Austin Riley (R)24.3%3.0
5. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.1%2.0
6. Luke Williams (R)23.2%2.0
7. Kyle Farmer (R)21.5%2.0
8. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.3%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-118-110
BRBetRivers-139+105
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-114-111
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-132+100
MBMyBookie-121-114

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (L)21.1%3.0
2. Jorge Polanco (L)18.3%3.0
3. Mark Vientos (R)23.5%3.0
4. Bo Bichette (R)21.7%3.0
5. Brett Baty (L)25.2%2.6
6. Marcus Semien (R)21.7%2.0
7. Carson Benge (L)21.4%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)21.3%2.0
9. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-145
BOLBetOnline+132-172
BRBetRivers+120-159
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+124-159
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+118-158
MBMyBookie+124-173

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Civale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.4%3.0
2. Evan Carter (L)20.7%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)23.8%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)23.3%3.0
5. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%2.5
6. Danny Jansen (R)25.0%2.0
7. Josh Smith (L)17.1%2.0
8. Josh Jung (R)22.1%2.0
9. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline-106-122
BRBetRivers+102-134
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-104-123
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel-102-130
MBMyBookie-110-125

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kody Clemens (L)27.3%3.0
2. Austin Martin (R)21.1%3.0
3. Luke Keaschall (R)15.2%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.3%2.5
5. Matt Wallner (L)33.8%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)16.6%2.0
7. Tristan Gray (L)22.4%2.0
8. Brooks Lee (L)20.8%2.0
9. James Outman (L)30.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-139+109
FDFanDuel-144+108
MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Max Scherzer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.2%3.0
2. Taylor Ward (R)23.0%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)24.9%3.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)25.5%3.0
5. Johnathan Rodríguez (R)29.9%3.0
6. Leody Taveras (L)22.2%2.7
7. Colton Cowser (L)24.2%2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R)26.8%2.0
9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+113-144
FDFanDuel+110-146
MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Adrian Houser's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB24.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nico Hoerner (R)13.3%3.0
2. Scott Kingery (R)26.9%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)15.6%3.0
4. Ian Happ (L)25.6%3.0
5. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.1%2.4
6. Carson Kelly (R)19.1%2.0
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.0%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)23.4%2.0
9. Michael Busch (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-120-108
BRBetRivers-127-105
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-123-103
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-125-106
MBMyBookie-124-111

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ramón Laureano (R)21.0%3.0
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.0%3.0
3. Jackson Merrill (L)21.2%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)20.7%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.8
6. Nick Castellanos (R)21.8%2.0
7. Ty France (R)21.9%2.0
8. Bryce Johnson (R)22.1%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-154+118
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-157+123
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-146+110
MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB18.7%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)23.3%3.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)22.8%3.0
3. Matt Chapman (R)22.9%3.0
4. Casey Schmitt (R)24.1%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.1%3.0
6. Jared Oliva (R)21.1%2.1
7. Daniel Susac (R)19.6%2.0
8. Jerar Encarnacion (R)21.1%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)28.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+102-137
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+114-145
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+110-146
MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cade Povich's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.2%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.0%3.0
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)18.5%3.0
5. Nick Yorke (R)19.5%2.9
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.3%2.0
7. Billy Cook (R)25.4%2.0
8. Konnor Griffin (R)21.1%2.0
9. Joey Bart (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-132+102
BRBetRivers-117-114
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-129+101
FDFanDuel-132+100
MBMyBookie-135-102

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jameson Taillon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)21.8%3.0
2. William Contreras (R)17.2%3.0
3. Gary Sánchez (R)24.6%3.0
4. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.2%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)23.0%2.9
6. Sal Frelick (L)20.5%2.0
7. Brandon Lockridge (R)20.6%2.0
8. Luis Rengifo (L)20.8%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOLBetOnline-141+108
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-149+117
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-146+110
MBMyBookie-143+103

We project 4.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zack Littell's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.1%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Roman Anthony (L)26.1%3.0
2. Caleb Durbin (R)19.7%3.0
3. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0
5. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.1%2.7
6. Trevor Story (R)28.3%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)26.3%2.0
8. Connor Wong (R)24.0%2.0
9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-137+106
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-131+103
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-138+104
MBMyBookie-140+101

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.1%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)19.1%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.3%3.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%2.5
6. Adolis García (R)25.1%2.0
7. Alec Bohm (R)20.4%2.0
8. Rafael Marchán (L)21.2%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers-157+118
BOVBovada-185+140
DKDraftKings-156+122
FDFanDuel-188+140

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Zac Gallen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB18.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)22.7%3.0
2. Josh Lowe (L)25.1%3.0
3. Jo Adell (R)20.3%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)25.6%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)21.7%3.0
6. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.9%2.3
7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.4%2.0
8. Oswald Peraza (R)26.6%2.0
9. Bryce Teodosio (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-135+104
BRBetRivers-148+110
DKDraftKings-129+101
FANFanatics-130+100

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)19.1%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)15.2%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)25.7%3.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)25.7%2.9
6. Ramón Urías (R)21.9%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)21.5%2.0
8. Thomas Saggese (R)23.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+110-140
FDFanDuel+102-136
MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brayan Bello's full player page →
★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 3.7 K, but the book line is 1.5 — so the play is Over 1.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 68% ratea +25% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.0%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.0%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.7%2.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.7%2.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)19.7%2.0
5. Carter Jensen (L)29.1%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)20.4%2.0
7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.0%1.1
8. Isaac Collins (L)23.3%1.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)19.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FANFanatics+165-225

We project 3.7 K vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Taylor's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.7 BF

Expected batters faced14.7
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ildemaro Vargas (L)18.6%2.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.0%2.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.0%2.0
4. Jose Fernandez (R)25.4%2.0
5. Ketel Marte (L)19.2%2.0
6. Luken Baker (R)23.8%1.7
7. James McCann (R)26.3%1.0
8. Alek Thomas (L)23.3%1.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zach Pop's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 68% at a +25% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.