Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 1, 2026)?

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against WSH. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 1, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K), Mike Burrows (~6.0 K), Will Warren (~5.9 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.8 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, May 1, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 1, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 63% — a +12% return.

Final · 5–6

AZaway

CHChomeTop matchup25 Final · 5–4

TEXaway

DEThomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–9

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup53 Final · 6–1

MILaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–7

BALaway

NYYhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–3

HOUaway

BOShomeTop matchup82 Final · 0–3

SFaway

TBhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–5

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup58 Final · 7–3

TORaway

MINhomeTop matchup10 Final · 2–7

LADaway

STLhomeTop matchup70 Final · 8–6

ATLaway

COLhomeTop matchup46 Final · 4–3

NYMaway

LAAhomeTop matchup38 Final · 8–5

CLEaway

ATHhomeTop matchup59 Final · 8–2

CWSaway

SDhomeTop matchup52 Final · 7–6

KCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup69

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.6% K / BF

vs LHB34.2%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.9%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.2%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.1%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)17.4%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.3%2.9

6. José Tena (L)26.8%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.4%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)21.1%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-132+102

BRBetRivers-127-105

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-146+115

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-135-102

We project 7.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)26.1%3.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)26.0%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.8%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)25.7%3.0

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)18.4%2.4

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.4%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.6%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-167+128

BRBetRivers-175+130

DKDraftKings-151+118

FANFanatics-145+110

MBMyBookie-168+121

We project 6.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.5%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)18.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.6%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.6%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.2%2.4

6. Dylan Beavers (L)25.0%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)20.8%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.5%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-152+116

BRBetRivers-155+116

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-160+125

FDFanDuel-152+114

MBMyBookie-153+111

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.4%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.6%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.8%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)23.2%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)21.8%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-102-127

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+101-128

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie-106-130

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)18.9%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.1%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.0%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.2%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)25.7%2.6

6. Matt Vierling (R)17.6%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.2%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.3%2.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-119-109

BRBetRivers-124-107

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-123-104

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-123-113

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB29.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.1%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.1%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)21.6%2.4

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.5%2.0

6. Luke Raley (L)23.4%2.0

7. Cole Young (L)18.9%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)22.4%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-135+104

BRBetRivers-125-106

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-132+104

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-128-104

MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 5.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)17.2%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.6%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)27.7%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.3%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)22.1%2.1

6. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.9%2.0

7. Colby Thomas (R)25.8%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)25.2%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+112-145

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+106-140

MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.2%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)23.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)22.0%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.6%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.1%2.7

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.3%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)29.8%2.0

8. Christopher Morel (R)23.6%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)15.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BRBetRivers-167+125

BOVBovada-160+120

FDFanDuel-162+122

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.0%3.0

2. Bryce Harper (L)18.2%3.0

3. Adolis García (R)23.2%3.0

4. Dylan Moore (R)24.3%3.0

5. Edmundo Sosa (R)19.6%2.9

6. Bryson Stott (L)21.6%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)18.5%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)18.4%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-105-123

BRBetRivers-113-118

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-110-115

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.6%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.5%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)15.1%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)22.1%3.0

5. Joey Ortiz (R)20.6%2.4

6. Gary Sánchez (R)21.8%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)13.6%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (L)26.5%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-104-129

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+105-133

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel+102-136

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)21.8%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)26.9%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.3%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.0%3.0

5. Rece Hinds (R)26.2%2.9

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.7%2.0

7. JJ Bleday (L)20.8%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)28.1%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-141+109

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-145+113

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-140+106

MBMyBookie-144+104

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)22.7%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)23.9%3.0

3. Miguel Andujar (R)20.0%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)19.4%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.8%2.5

6. Ty France (R)21.9%2.0

7. Nick Castellanos (R)23.7%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)22.9%2.0

9. Bryce Johnson (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+103-133

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+101-129

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie-101-136

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)15.9%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)17.7%3.0

3. Ryan Vilade (R)21.3%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.5%3.0

5. Ben Williamson (R)22.9%2.8

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.9%2.0

7. Jake Fraley (L)23.4%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)18.8%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+130-177

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+120-153

FDFanDuel+122-162

MBMyBookie+119-165

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Josh Smith (L)16.9%3.0

2. Sam Haggerty (L)23.8%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)21.2%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)20.4%2.9

5. Joc Pederson (L)23.0%2.0

6. Jake Burger (R)27.1%2.0

7. Alejandro Osuna (L)19.3%2.0

8. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.3%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+122-156

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+118-158

MBMyBookie+109-152

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)23.4%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.3%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.8%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.4%3.0

5. Jordan Beck (R)24.1%2.8

6. Troy Johnston (L)22.6%2.0

7. Willi Castro (L)25.8%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.4%2.0

9. Brenton Doyle (R)29.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-122-109

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-144+112

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.5%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)23.1%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)14.4%3.0

4. Casey Schmitt (R)19.7%2.9

5. Rafael Devers (L)25.0%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)24.5%2.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)21.1%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)24.3%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+113-145

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.3%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.7%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)25.8%3.0

6. Lane Thomas (R)21.2%2.2

7. Isaac Collins (L)25.5%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)19.3%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-118-110

BOLBetOnline-123-105

BRBetRivers-118-113

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-112-114

FDFanDuel-104-128

MBMyBookie-127-109

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)18.8%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.0%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.6%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)23.9%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)20.5%3.0

6. Yainer Diaz (R)19.8%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)26.7%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)27.8%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-102-126

FDFanDuel-102-130

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)25.2%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)23.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.9%3.0

5. Ryan McMahon (L)26.7%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)23.2%2.2

7. José Caballero (R)25.3%2.0

8. Austin Wells (L)21.4%2.0

9. Trent Grisham (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-120-108

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-119-107

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-124-111

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)27.7%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)21.8%3.0

3. Yoán Moncada (L)25.0%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.7%2.6

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.4%2.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.7%2.0

7. Oswald Peraza (R)25.2%2.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)21.1%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-107-124

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-106-121

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)16.2%3.0

3. Austin Slater (R)23.9%2.3

4. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.9%2.0

5. Brett Baty (L)22.7%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.6%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)20.5%2.0

8. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.7%2.0

9. Ronny Mauricio (L)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+104-135

BRBetRivers-106-125

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+106-136

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie+100-138

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Matt Shaw (R)20.5%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)17.4%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.5%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.4%2.7

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.5%2.0

6. Michael Busch (L)24.4%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)22.2%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.1%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+117-152

BRBetRivers+114-152

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+115-147

FDFanDuel+112-148

MBMyBookie+111-154

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.0%3.0

2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.8%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)27.0%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)18.3%2.5

5. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.3%2.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)20.6%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)19.2%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)23.6%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)28.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+120-159

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+128-164

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+120-160

MBMyBookie+111-154

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.5%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.6%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (L)22.4%3.0

4. Billy Cook (R)25.9%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.8%2.7

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)28.1%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)16.4%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)25.1%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-101-126

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)20.4%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)19.4%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)21.7%3.0

4. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.7%3.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)22.0%2.8

6. Andy Pages (R)23.3%2.0

7. Max Muncy (L)24.1%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)18.7%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-123-104

BRBetRivers-134+102

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-130+102

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-127-108

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB18.5%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.8%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.3%3.0

4. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.7%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.2%2.2

6. Sam Antonacci (L)14.5%2.0

7. Derek Hill (R)26.1%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)22.5%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOLBetOnline+128-167

BRBetRivers+145-200

FANFanatics+125-165

MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.9 BF

Expected batters faced18.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)15.3%2.9

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.3%2.0

3. José Ramírez (L)16.3%2.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)30.0%2.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.3%2.0

6. Angel Martínez (L)25.6%2.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)20.7%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)24.4%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-120-108

BRBetRivers-117-113

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-119-107

FDFanDuel-128-104

MBMyBookie-124-111

We project 3.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.2%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)18.3%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)17.8%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)19.7%2.9

5. Victor Caratini (R)20.4%2.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)19.7%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)22.5%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (R)19.7%2.0

9. James Outman (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-137+106

BRBetRivers-136+102

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-152+119

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-140+101

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.9%3.0

2. Davis Schneider (R)25.5%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.4%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.7%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.9%2.9

6. Lenyn Sosa (R)19.6%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)16.4%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.8%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+115-149

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+115-147

FDFanDuel+118-158

MBMyBookie+109-152

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB14.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)25.2%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.6%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)22.8%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.9%2.2

6. Austin Riley (R)22.1%2.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.7%2.0

8. Kyle Farmer (R)20.6%2.0

9. Robert Suarez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-165+125

BOLBetOnline-147+113

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-134+105

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-149+108

We project 3.7 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, May 1, 2026

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, May 1, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K, with Mike Burrows (HOU) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jacob Misiorowski

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against WSH. He's missing bats at a 32% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and WSH has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Mike Burrows (HOU) (82) — about 6.0 K vs BOS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Will Warren (NYY) (78) — about 5.9 K vs BAL: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (70) — about 5.8 K vs STL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (70) — about 5.8 K vs DET: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Cole Ragans (KC) (69) — about 5.4 K vs SEA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Grant Holmes is the arm to exploit it (46).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Christian Scott is the arm to exploit it (38).
CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Mitch Keller is the arm to exploit it (53).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Brady Singer is the arm to exploit it (23).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.0 strikeouts. Top play Jacob Misiorowski punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 1, 2026)?: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against WSH. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 1, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K), Mike Burrows (~6.0 K), Will Warren (~5.9 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.8 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, May 1, 2026?: Jacob Misiorowski punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.