Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, June 4, 2026)?

Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against TOR. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, June 4, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.1 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.6 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.7 K), Jared Jones (~5.3 K), J.T. Ginn (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 64% — a +15% return.

Final · 4–6

SDaway

PHIhomeTop matchup83 Final · 8–2

BALaway

BOShomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

NYYhomeTop matchup52 Final · 12–9

SFaway

MILhomeTop matchup45 Final · 7–2

TORaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–6

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup46 Final · 6–7

ATHaway

CHChomeTop matchup77 Final · 5–1

PITaway

HOUhomeTop matchup64 Final · 2–3

LADaway

AZhomeTop matchup40

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.9% K / BF

vs LHB28.0%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.9%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)15.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.1%3.0

5. Andrés Giménez (L)17.3%3.0

6. Nathan Lukes (L)22.0%3.0

7. Myles Straw (R)22.4%2.1

8. Tyler Heineman (R)21.8%2.0

9. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+108-137

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+122-150

We project 6.1 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)18.1%3.0

2. Gavin Sheets (L)22.4%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.7%3.0

4. Ty France (R)22.1%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)24.0%3.0

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.8%2.2

7. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%2.0

8. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

9. Bryce Johnson (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers-106-125

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-109-117

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-115-105

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Henry Bolte (R)24.3%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)28.2%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)19.9%3.0

4. Lawrence Butler (L)24.3%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.4%3.0

6. Jonah Heim (R)21.8%3.0

7. Zack Gelof (R)23.1%2.1

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.9%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+107-136

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+112-138

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.9%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.6%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)23.4%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)16.4%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)24.3%2.8

6. Cam Smith (R)24.9%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)29.9%2.0

8. Collin Price (R)22.0%2.0

9. Jake Meyers (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-112-114

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-112-118

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.2%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)25.9%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)20.9%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)25.5%2.6

6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.4%2.0

7. Kevin Alcántara (R)23.6%2.0

8. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.8%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+123-165

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+116-149

FDFanDuel+124-166

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.2%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)13.4%3.0

3. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.0%3.0

4. Travis Bazzana (L)28.1%3.0

5. Angel Martínez (R)20.1%2.1

6. Chase DeLauter (L)18.4%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)17.0%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)19.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+114-146

FDFanDuel+130-160

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)25.8%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)19.1%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)23.5%3.0

4. Austin Martin (R)19.5%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.3%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.8%3.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)19.0%2.4

8. Tristan Gray (L)24.3%2.0

9. Orlando Arcia (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BRBetRivers-127-105

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-131+103

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-130-102

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Casey Schmitt (R)22.2%3.0

2. Buddy Kennedy (R)22.0%3.0

3. Jonah Cox (R)22.0%3.0

4. Willy Adames (R)25.1%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.3%2.0

6. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.0%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)20.8%2.0

8. Eric Haase (R)24.8%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BRBetRivers-159+118

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-160+125

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-148+120

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.1 BF

Expected batters faced18.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.1%2.1

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.6%2.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)23.0%2.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.8%2.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.6%2.0

6. Oneil Cruz (L)29.4%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.1%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)17.8%2.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.9%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.7%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.7%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.0%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.2%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)23.3%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)25.1%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)28.0%2.0

9. Jackson Holliday (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-163+128

FDFanDuel-162+132

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.1%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)23.5%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0

6. José Caballero (R)17.1%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)29.4%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)20.8%2.0

9. Max Schuemann (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+122-156

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+116-154

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.8 BF

Expected batters faced24.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)17.5%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.7%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.4%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)18.0%3.0

5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)19.1%3.0

6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.9%3.0

7. Geraldo Perdomo (R)15.9%2.8

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.4%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-128+100

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-132+100

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.2%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mookie Betts (R)16.8%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)18.7%3.0

3. Andy Pages (R)18.8%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.9%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)16.9%3.0

6. Santiago Espinal (R)19.9%2.5

7. Alex Call (R)18.9%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)22.8%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)16.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+130-175

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+126-161

FDFanDuel+124-152

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.2%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)22.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.6%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%2.9

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.0%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)18.7%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.8%2.0

8. Adolis García (R)29.8%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-144+113

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)26.1%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)19.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)20.0%3.0

5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)20.6%2.1

6. Anthony Seigler (R)22.2%2.0

7. Caleb Durbin (R)17.1%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)22.2%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+115-155

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+112-143

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel+114-152

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)28.6%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.4%3.0

3. Gary Sánchez (R)22.7%3.0

4. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (L)24.9%2.9

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.3%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)13.9%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)14.2%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-121-110

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-117-109

FDFanDuel-118-112

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.0 BF

Expected batters faced13.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)25.3%2.0

2. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.0%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.7%2.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)12.7%2.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)20.2%1.0

6. Dominic Smith (L)20.1%1.0

7. Austin Riley (R)28.6%1.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.5%1.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)21.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)28.0%2.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)21.1%2.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)15.7%2.0

4. Tyler Tolbert (R)23.8%2.0

5. Lane Thomas (R)24.2%1.6

6. Isaac Collins (L)26.1%1.0

7. Alex Lange (R)22.0%1.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)23.0%1.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026

Chris Sale (ATL) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, June 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K, with Zack Wheeler (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chris Sale

Chris Sale (ATL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against TOR. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TOR has been around league average, going down 20% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Zack Wheeler (PHI) (83) — about 5.6 K vs SD: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (77) — about 5.7 K vs ATH: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jared Jones (PIT) (64) — about 5.3 K vs HOU: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) (54) — about 4.9 K vs CHC: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (52) — about 5.0 K vs CLE: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (77).
KC is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Andrew Morris is the arm to exploit it (0).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Lucas Giolito is the arm to exploit it (24).
BAL is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Brayan Bello is the arm to exploit it (41).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.9 strikeouts. Top play Chris Sale punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, June 4, 2026)?: Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against TOR. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, June 4, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.1 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.6 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.7 K), Jared Jones (~5.3 K), J.T. Ginn (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, June 4, 2026?: Chris Sale punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.