Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?

Gavin Williams (CLE) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against MIL. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Gavin Williams (~6.2 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.8 K), Nolan McLean (~5.8 K), George Kirby (~5.3 K), Peter Lambert (~5.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 64% rate — a +15% return.

Δ1.6Shohei OhtaniFinal TB @ LADwe project 4.9 K vs the 6.5 lineUnder 6.5-120✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 9–1

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup87 Final · 6–2

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup26 Final · 12–4

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup68 Final · 2–4

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–1

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup40 Final · 4–5

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup66 Final · 1–8

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup42 Final · 3–0

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup52 Final · 5–10

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup70 Final · 7–5

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup35 Final · 4–9

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–8

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup55 Final · 12–4

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup92 Final · 5–3

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup86

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 1 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs CIN7

May 22@ PHI11

May 27vs WSH4

Jun 3@ NYY6

Jun 8vs NYY5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)27.0%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)21.0%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)23.3%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)16.3%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)26.0%3.0

6. Sal Frelick (L)13.6%3.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.1%2.2

8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers+100-132

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-108-118

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-112-118

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB28.2%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21@ STL9

May 26vs CHC5

May 31vs MIN11

Jun 6@ ATL5

Jun 12vs MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)23.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.3%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)17.0%3.0

4. Jacob Wilson (R)15.5%3.0

5. Jonah Heim (L)19.2%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)26.2%3.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.2%2.4

8. Henry Bolte (R)23.3%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-113-113

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-104-128

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ WSH5

May 25vs CIN6

May 31vs MIA2

Jun 6@ SD5

Jun 12vs ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)20.7%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.1%3.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.9%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.3%2.9

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.1%2.0

7. Noelvi Marte (R)20.4%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)20.2%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+122-156

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+118-158

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs SD6

May 23@ KC3

May 29vs AZ4

Jun 3vs NYM5

Jun 10@ BAL10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.6%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.8%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.9%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.0%2.8

7. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.1%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)24.3%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+109-139

FDFanDuel+118-144

We project 5.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs TEX6

May 24@ CHC5

May 30vs MIL3

Jun 5vs ATH4

Jun 10@ LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)20.1%3.0

3. Riley Greene (L)26.6%3.0

4. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.4%3.0

5. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.3%3.0

6. Colt Keith (L)21.3%2.4

7. Matt Vierling (R)19.4%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.7%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+123-165

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+121-154

FDFanDuel+126-154

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16@ NYM6

May 21vs TOR7

May 29@ ATH3

Jun 4vs CLE7

Jun 10@ CLE7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)19.6%3.0

2. Randal Grichuk (R)20.9%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)16.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)24.6%3.0

5. Everson Pereira (R)24.5%2.4

6. Edgar Quero (R)21.9%2.0

7. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)16.5%2.0

9. Sam Antonacci (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-132+100

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-148+116

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-132+108

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 22vs MIL7

Apr 28@ ATL3

May 16vs TOR4

May 21vs CLE4

May 27vs LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.2%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)24.0%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)18.6%2.7

5. Jose Altuve (R)23.0%2.0

6. Cam Smith (R)26.1%2.0

7. Joey Loperfido (L)25.3%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)20.4%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+117-149

FDFanDuel+116-154

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs ATL3

May 26@ TOR4

Jun 1@ WSH5

Jun 7vs TB7

Jun 12@ PIT7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)24.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.1%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.9%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)17.0%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%3.0

7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.7

8. Justin Crawford (L)23.1%2.0

9. Garrett Stubbs (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BRBetRivers-121-110

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-124-103

FDFanDuel-118-112

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs BAL6

May 25@ BAL3

May 31vs LAA3

Jun 6@ MIA6

Jun 12@ LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Tommy Edman (R)18.8%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)21.5%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.9%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)17.3%2.9

5. Miguel Rojas (R)17.7%2.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.0%2.0

7. Alex Call (R)18.3%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)24.3%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-118-110

BRBetRivers-113-118

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-110-116

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-112

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 4.9 K, but the book line is 6.5 — so the play is Under 6.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 64% rate — a +15% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 13vs SF8

May 20@ SD4

May 27vs COL7

Jun 3@ AZ6

Jun 10@ PIT6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)15.4%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.6%3.0

3. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)20.0%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)20.5%3.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)15.5%2.6

7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)23.6%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings-106-120

FDFanDuel+116-142

We project 4.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ TB6

May 25vs TB3

May 31vs TOR4

Jun 6@ TOR3

Jun 11vs SEA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.8%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)28.0%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.6%3.0

4. Dominic Canzone (L)18.3%3.0

5. Cole Young (L)18.3%3.0

6. Victor Robles (R)16.9%2.2

7. Colt Emerson (L)24.9%2.0

8. Connor Joe (R)22.5%2.0

9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+100-128

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel-108-122

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.2%3.0

2. Nico Hoerner (R)14.2%3.0

3. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.5%3.0

4. Michael Busch (L)23.8%2.8

5. Alex Bregman (R)19.0%2.0

6. Ian Happ (R)27.7%2.0

7. Matt Shaw (R)20.4%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)19.7%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FANFanatics-120-110

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 1vs HOU3

May 7vs TB1

Jun 10@ TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.6%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.5%3.0

4. Alejandro Kirk (R)20.6%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)16.3%2.6

6. Jesús Sánchez (L)23.2%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)26.5%2.0

8. Myles Straw (R)21.6%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+133-180

BOVBovada+130-170

DKDraftKings+137-176

FANFanatics+130-170

FDFanDuel+134-164

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ PHI3

May 25@ NYM7

May 31vs ATL4

Jun 6@ STL3

Jun 12vs AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)22.7%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.2%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)19.1%3.0

4. Marcus Semien (R)20.7%3.0

5. Mark Vientos (R)22.4%3.0

6. Francisco Alvarez (R)25.0%2.7

7. A.J. Ewing (L)25.5%2.0

8. Luis Torrens (R)22.0%2.0

9. Zack Short (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BRBetRivers+100-132

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+111-141

FDFanDuel+118-144

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ CHC5

May 24vs LAD7

May 30@ HOU4

Jun 5@ COL2

Jun 10@ ATH3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)18.2%3.0

2. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.0%3.0

3. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.0%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)24.8%2.9

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.4%2.0

6. David Fry (R)23.5%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)12.1%2.0

8. Petey Halpin (L)22.3%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-124-108

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-137+107

FDFanDuel-120-102

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs COL4

May 26@ SF6

Jun 1vs LAD3

Jun 6vs WSH5

Jun 12@ CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)26.1%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)20.6%3.0

4. Oswald Peraza (R)25.9%3.0

5. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.0%3.0

6. Denzer Guzman (R)23.3%2.6

7. Jose Siri (R)25.7%2.0

8. Logan Porter (R)23.1%2.0

9. Wade Meckler (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-150+115

FDFanDuel-142+116

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16vs KC2

May 23@ CIN8

May 30vs CHC4

Jun 5vs CIN1

Jun 12@ MIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.8%3.0

2. Samad Taylor (R)23.1%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)22.2%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)20.8%3.0

5. Gavin Sheets (L)22.1%2.8

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.0%2.0

7. Ty France (R)23.3%2.0

8. Will Wagner (L)19.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-141+107

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-160+125

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-134+110

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB17.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ SEA5

May 25vs MIN5

May 30vs DET3

Jun 5@ PHI4

Jun 12vs LAD7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)16.4%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)25.3%3.0

3. Amed Rosario (R)19.7%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)15.9%3.0

5. Jasson Domínguez (R)23.2%2.7

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.1%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)26.8%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)19.2%2.0

9. Ali Sánchez (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-112-120

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-111-114

FDFanDuel-110-120

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.6% K / BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 3vs CLE3

May 9@ BAL6

May 15vs SF2

May 20@ LAA2

May 25vs SEA2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)17.3%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.3%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.3%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.1%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)18.0%3.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.7%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)18.6%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)27.5%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers-110-121

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+102-130

FDFanDuel+100-122

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 23@ WSH7

Apr 29vs DET4

May 4@ SEA2

May 13vs CHC4

May 18@ MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.0%3.0

2. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.4%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)21.0%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.1%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.5%2.6

6. Willy Adames (R)24.7%2.0

7. Casey Schmitt (R)21.9%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)19.4%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-135+106

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-132+108

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 6vs LAD2

Apr 12vs MIN3

Apr 18@ AZ1

Apr 24vs CLE0

Jun 10vs PHI4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mickey Gasper (L)22.0%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.2%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.9%2.4

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%2.0

5. Jarren Duran (L)27.7%2.0

6. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.0%2.0

7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)15.8%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.0%2.0

9. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 5vs CWS0

Jun 12vs TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)18.4%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)15.2%2.7

3. Corbin Carroll (L)19.8%2.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.7%2.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)17.2%2.0

6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)14.2%2.0

7. Jordan Lawlar (R)22.5%2.0

8. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB16.2%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs BAL3

May 20vs NYM3

May 31vs SD5

Jun 6@ AZ4

Jun 12vs SEA0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)27.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.3%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.6%2.9

4. Lane Thomas (R)22.6%2.0

5. Michael Massey (L)17.8%2.0

6. Salvador Perez (R)20.6%2.0

7. John Rave (L)25.7%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)17.7%2.0

9. Isaac Collins (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+113-145

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+118-144

We project 3.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 13@ BOS4

May 18vs CIN3

May 24vs CLE3

May 31@ LAD3

Jun 6vs CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)12.5%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)16.7%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)28.8%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.8%3.0

5. Javier Sanoja (R)14.5%2.6

6. Owen Caissie (L)31.3%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)22.0%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-137+107

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-134+110

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.5 BF

Expected batters faced13.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 17@ AZ0

May 21@ NYY4

May 26vs MIA1

Jun 6vs BAL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mickey Gasper (L)18.4%2.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.2%2.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.9%2.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%2.0

5. Jarren Duran (L)27.7%1.5

6. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.0%1.0

7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)15.8%1.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)24.2%1.0

9. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.1 BF

Expected batters faced18.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 7@ TB3

Apr 13@ PHI3

Apr 19vs NYM3

Jun 12@ SF5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)20.3%2.1

2. Tyler Freeman (R)14.5%2.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)17.7%2.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)27.4%2.0

5. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.0

6. Edouard Julien (L)24.9%2.0

7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.3%2.0

8. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+135-180

FDFanDuel+138-170

We project 3.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB15.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.2%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.0%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.0%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)12.3%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)25.4%3.0

6. Eli White (R)20.2%2.0

7. Jorge Mateo (R)26.8%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.2%2.0

9. Sandy León (R)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

DKDraftKings-152+119

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.2 BF

Expected batters faced17.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 4vs MIL4

Jun 1@ CIN5

Jun 6@ MIN3

Jun 12vs HOU0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.1%2.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.3%2.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)21.2%2.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.8%2.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.6%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)17.5%2.0

7. Keibert Ruiz (L)14.6%2.0

8. José Tena (L)27.1%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)24.1%1.2

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 6@ SF0

May 12@ MIL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.7%2.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)17.8%2.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)19.4%2.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.0%2.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.5%1.8

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.8%1.0

7. Jimmy Crooks (L)25.2%1.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.0%1.0

9. Nathan Church (L)25.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Gavin Williams (CLE) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K, with Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Gavin Williams

Gavin Williams (CLE) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against MIL. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIL has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (92) — about 5.8 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (87) — about 5.8 K vs CIN: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (86) — about 5.3 K vs BAL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Peter Lambert (HOU) (74) — about 5.3 K vs DET: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (70) — about 5.3 K vs CWS: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (42).
DET is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Peter Lambert is the arm to exploit it (74).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Sandy Alcantara is the arm to exploit it (68).
KC is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Zack Littell is the arm to exploit it (26).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.4 strikeouts. Top play Gavin Williams punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?: Gavin Williams (CLE) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against MIL. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Gavin Williams (~6.2 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.8 K), Nolan McLean (~5.8 K), George Kirby (~5.3 K), Peter Lambert (~5.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, June 17, 2026?: Gavin Williams punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.