Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 3, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CWS. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 3, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Bryan Woo (~6.2 K), Aaron Nola (~5.7 K), Eury Pérez (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, April 3, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, April 3, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 13–6

LADaway

WSHhomeTop matchup46 Final · 0–4

STLaway

DEThomeTop matchup29 Final · 2–8

MIAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup53 Final · 2–5

SDaway

BOShomeTop matchup48 Final · 4–5

TORaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–3

CINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup42 Final · 1–4

CHCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup24 Final · 4–10

TBaway

MINhomeTop matchup36 Final · 10–1

PHIaway

COLhomeTop matchup57 Final · 4–5

BALaway

PIThomeTop matchup40 Final · 3–1

SEAaway

LAAhomeTop matchup74 Final · 4–11

HOUaway

ATHhomeTop matchup12 Final · 2–0

ATLaway

AZhomeTop matchup25 Final · 10–3

NYMaway

SFhomeTop matchup49

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate31.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB30.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.5%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)23.6%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)23.6%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.0%3.0

5. Austin Hays (R)27.3%2.9

6. Derek Hill (R)24.6%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)24.9%2.0

8. Reese McGuire (L)22.8%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB28.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.2%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)27.1%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)22.5%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.3%2.8

6. Leo Rivas (R)20.8%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)17.8%2.0

8. Luke Raley (L)27.7%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.6%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.1%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)21.9%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)21.8%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)26.0%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.2%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Troy Johnston (L)22.7%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)25.9%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)24.6%3.0

4. Edouard Julien (L)27.9%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)22.5%2.9

6. Willi Castro (L)24.6%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)22.7%2.0

8. Jake McCarthy (L)20.7%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)21.2%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)29.2%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)20.6%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)19.1%3.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)22.2%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.4%2.4

7. Austin Wells (L)23.0%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)22.9%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.0% K/BF

vs LHB27.8%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.4%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)24.7%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)16.5%3.0

4. Matt Chapman (R)22.9%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.7%2.9

6. Heliot Ramos (R)26.5%2.0

7. Harrison Bader (R)23.4%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.3%2.0

9. Jerar Encarnacion (R)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)28.5%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)29.4%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)22.8%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)24.6%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.4%2.7

6. Caleb Durbin (R)22.7%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)25.8%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)24.5%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.6%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.9%3.0

3. Daylen Lile (L)18.6%3.0

4. Brady House (R)25.0%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)17.5%2.2

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)24.0%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.5%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)19.8%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt McLain (R)24.3%3.0

2. Dane Myers (R)21.8%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.6%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)18.3%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)25.8%2.9

6. TJ Friedl (L)21.2%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.0%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)25.6%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.9%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.3%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (L)23.5%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)22.8%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.8%2.6

6. Spencer Horwitz (L)22.4%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)22.0%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)23.3%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kody Clemens (L)24.8%3.0

2. James Outman (L)24.6%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)17.5%3.0

4. Matt Wallner (L)27.4%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.0%2.8

6. Ryan Jeffers (R)25.1%2.0

7. Austin Martin (R)20.6%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)25.8%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)18.8%3.0

2. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.0%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)21.8%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)22.7%2.3

6. Mark Vientos (R)23.2%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)24.4%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)22.7%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.6%3.0

2. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.4%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)20.1%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.5%3.0

5. Ramón Laureano (R)23.3%2.7

6. Miguel Andujar (R)22.9%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)23.8%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.5%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.3%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.6%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.4%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.8%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)23.8%2.8

6. Zach McKinstry (L)23.7%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.5%2.0

8. Parker Meadows (L)21.9%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nathan Church (L)21.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.4%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.4%3.0

4. Nolan Gorman (L)24.7%3.0

5. Jordan Walker (R)22.4%3.0

6. Yohel Pozo (R)18.5%2.2

7. Thomas Saggese (R)23.9%2.0

8. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.1%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.9%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.1%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)20.2%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)23.2%2.8

6. Dylan Beavers (L)23.4%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)26.4%2.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)22.1%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)18.7%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.3%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.4%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)22.8%2.9

6. Alek Thomas (L)23.8%2.0

7. James McCann (R)25.2%2.0

8. Carlos Santana (L)24.6%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)20.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)20.3%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)23.5%3.0

4. Carson Kelly (R)21.9%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)21.5%2.4

6. Dansby Swanson (R)23.5%2.0

7. Matt Shaw (R)19.4%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.5%2.0

9. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.9%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)17.1%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.1%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)19.4%2.7

6. Raisel Iglesias (R)22.0%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)21.3%2.0

8. Michael Harris II (L)22.3%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.9%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)19.4%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.7%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.3%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)22.2%2.7

6. Josh Smith (L)19.4%2.0

7. Josh Jung (R)25.0%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)20.3%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)23.9%3.0

3. Dylan Moore (R)27.7%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)17.3%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)21.3%2.9

6. Otto Kemp (R)23.9%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)18.4%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.8%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)16.8%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)25.0%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)19.9%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.9%3.0

5. Bo Naylor (L)25.7%2.9

6. Angel Martínez (L)24.4%2.0

7. Daniel Schneemann (L)23.6%2.0

8. Gabriel Arias (R)28.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)24.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)18.3%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.0%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)17.8%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)20.0%2.6

6. Owen Caissie (L)20.9%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)22.6%2.0

8. Leo Jiménez (R)23.8%2.0

9. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)25.2%3.0

2. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.3%2.5

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.6%2.0

4. Myles Straw (R)20.4%2.0

5. Tyler Heineman (L)21.5%2.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)22.4%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)22.8%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)16.0%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness25.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.8%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.3%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)28.0%3.0

5. Darell Hernaiz (R)22.2%2.8

6. Lawrence Butler (L)21.4%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)29.3%2.0

8. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.6%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ryan Vilade (R)23.5%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.2%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)24.3%3.0

4. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.7%3.0

5. Nick Fortes (R)17.3%2.3

6. Cedric Mullins (L)24.6%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)23.2%2.0

8. Chandler Simpson (L)16.9%2.0

9. Carson Williams (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.7%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)21.8%3.0

3. Shay Whitcomb (R)18.9%3.0

4. Joey Loperfido (L)21.7%3.0

5. Nick Allen (R)21.0%2.9

6. Cam Smith (R)24.7%2.0

7. Jake Meyers (R)21.7%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)21.5%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)20.9%3.0

3. Mookie Betts (R)18.4%3.0

4. Santiago Espinal (R)15.3%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)21.1%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)23.0%2.2

7. Alex Call (R)16.7%2.0

8. Andy Pages (R)19.0%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, April 3, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, April 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K, with Reid Detmers (LAA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CWS. He's missing bats at a 31% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CWS has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Reid Detmers (LAA) (74) — about 6.3 K vs SEA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (62) — about 6.2 K vs LAA: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) (57) — about 5.7 K vs COL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Eury Pérez (MIA) (53) — about 6.1 K vs NYY: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (49) — about 5.9 K vs SF: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Cristian Javier is the arm to exploit it (12).
BOS is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Michael King is the arm to exploit it (48).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Aaron Nola is the arm to exploit it (57).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (100).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.5 strikeouts. Top play Dylan Cease punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 3, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CWS. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 3, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Bryan Woo (~6.2 K), Aaron Nola (~5.7 K), Eury Pérez (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, April 3, 2026?: Dylan Cease punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.