Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, May 5, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against HOU. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, May 5, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~6.5 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.7 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.0 K), Gavin Williams (~5.9 K), Logan Webb (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, May 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 10–3

BOSaway

DEThomeTop matchup46 Final · 3–4

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup49 Final · 1–9

ATHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup72 Final · 9–7

BALaway

MIAhomeTop matchup44 Final · 11–3

MINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup57 Final · 4–7

TEXaway

NYYhomeTop matchup83 Final · 2–3

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup55 Final · 3–5

CLEaway

KChomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–2

LADaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup44 Final · 0–9

PITaway

AZhomeTop matchup35 Final · 3–2

ATLaway

SEAhomeTop matchup50 Final · 10–5

SDaway

SFhomeTop matchup65

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB28.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)19.2%3.0

2. Brice Matthews (R)27.0%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.6%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.2%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)27.6%3.0

6. Zach Cole (L)24.1%2.3

7. Christian Vázquez (R)19.3%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)24.1%2.0

9. Braden Shewmake (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.5% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)17.9%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)24.2%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)18.3%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.2%2.9

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.0%2.0

6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.8%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)21.2%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)25.8%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)15.9%3.0

2. Brent Rooker (R)25.5%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)29.3%3.0

4. Colby Thomas (R)25.1%3.0

5. Zack Gelof (R)23.8%3.0

6. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.5%3.0

7. Austin Wynns (R)20.4%2.3

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.6%2.0

9. Brett Harris (R)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.0%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.7%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.6%2.7

7. Isaac Collins (L)23.3%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)21.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.8 BF

Expected batters faced24.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)22.2%3.0

2. Manny Machado (R)22.0%3.0

3. Miguel Andujar (R)19.5%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)22.6%3.0

5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.3%3.0

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.3%3.0

7. Bryce Johnson (L)24.4%2.8

8. Luis Campusano (R)23.6%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Evan Carter (L)21.2%3.0

2. Corey Seager (L)19.9%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)19.4%3.0

4. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.5%3.0

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)19.8%2.7

6. Jake Burger (R)27.0%2.0

7. Justin Foscue (R)30.7%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)27.5%2.0

9. Andrew McCutchen (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.6%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.8%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.0%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)19.0%2.8

5. Austin Martin (R)20.3%2.0

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.7%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)18.1%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)22.0%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.2%3.0

2. Daylen Lile (L)18.5%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.7%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.1%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)21.2%3.0

6. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.5%2.9

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.2%2.0

8. José Tena (L)27.9%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.