Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, May 6, 2026)?

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against HOU. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, May 6, 2026: Tyler Glasnow (~7.2 K), Will Warren (~5.7 K), Michael Soroka (~5.9 K), Paul Skenes (~5.5 K), Cole Ragans (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, May 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 0–3

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup37 Final · 6–2

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup37 Final · 12–2

LADaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–1

SDaway

SFhomeTop matchup21 Final · 2–8

CWSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup34 Final · 1–3

ATLaway

SEAhomeTop matchup32 Final · 4–0

BOSaway

DEThomeTop matchup50 Final · 3–6

ATHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup57 Final · 7–4

BALaway

MIAhomeTop matchup54 Final · 2–15

MINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup34 Final · 6–1

TEXaway

NYYhomeTop matchup63 Final · 6–7

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup41 Final · 3–1

CLEaway

KChomeTop matchup59 Final · 10–5

NYMaway

COLhomeTop matchup55 Final · 1–0

PITaway

AZhomeTop matchup63

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.8% K/BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB30.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Matthews (R)27.3%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)19.7%3.0

3. Nick Allen (R)22.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.5%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)26.9%3.0

6. Zach Cole (L)26.2%2.4

7. Zach Dezenzo (R)28.3%2.0

8. Braden Shewmake (L)20.7%2.0

9. César Salazar (L)15.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.1%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)19.9%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.8%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)18.9%3.0

5. Evan Carter (L)20.5%2.4

6. Kyle Higashioka (R)25.3%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)26.1%2.0

8. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.5%2.0

9. Andrew McCutchen (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.8%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.6%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.5%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.9%3.0

5. Jared Triolo (R)22.7%2.9

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)26.9%2.0

7. Billy Cook (R)24.1%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)23.5%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.3% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.1%3.0

2. Ketel Marte (L)19.9%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)27.9%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.6%2.1

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.7%2.0

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.0%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)19.6%2.0

8. Gabriel Moreno (R)22.4%2.0

9. Jose Fernandez (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB31.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (R)17.0%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)17.7%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.0%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)21.7%2.5

5. David Fry (R)23.9%2.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.0%2.0

7. Brayan Rocchio (R)17.8%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)19.0%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.0%3.0

2. Jacob Wilson (R)14.0%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.6%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)24.4%3.0

5. Brett Harris (R)24.2%2.7

6. Jeff McNeil (L)15.3%2.0

7. Jonah Heim (L)19.3%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)24.8%2.0

9. Zack Gelof (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)26.1%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.1%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)29.2%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)17.5%3.0

5. Tyler Freeman (R)16.5%3.0

6. Jordan Beck (R)24.1%2.2

7. Kyle Karros (R)22.2%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.6%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.4%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)21.1%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.8%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)20.7%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)25.6%2.8

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.6%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)27.3%2.0

8. Blaze Alexander (R)26.0%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)17.5%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)25.0%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.9%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)19.5%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.3%3.0

6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.5%2.8

7. Austin Wells (L)21.5%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.0%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.8%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)27.1%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.3%3.0

4. Trevor Story (R)26.4%2.6

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)15.9%2.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.2%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.5%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)26.4%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)21.5%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)20.3%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.5%3.0

4. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.8%2.7

5. Blake Dunn (R)26.7%2.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)22.6%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)28.3%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.9%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)19.5%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)23.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)22.1%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)25.7%3.0

5. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.8%2.8

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.6%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)25.3%2.0

8. Bryson Stott (L)17.5%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.6%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.4%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)25.9%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.8%2.9

5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.1%2.0

6. Kyle Isbel (L)23.7%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (R)25.0%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)18.5%2.0

9. Elias Díaz (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.0%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.5%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.9%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)26.8%2.4

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.1%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.7%2.0

7. José Fermín (R)21.4%2.0

8. César Prieto (L)28.6%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.2%3.0

2. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.6%3.0

4. Daulton Varsho (L)21.0%2.8

5. Ernie Clement (R)15.6%2.0

6. Andrés Giménez (L)18.3%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)19.3%2.0

8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.8%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.6%3.0

3. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)22.5%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)19.9%2.4

6. Oswald Peraza (R)25.1%2.0

7. Nolan Schanuel (L)21.6%2.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)20.0%2.0

9. Bryce Teodosio (R)28.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.8%3.0

2. Daylen Lile (L)19.0%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)19.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.3%3.0

5. Brady House (R)28.6%2.7

6. José Tena (L)26.9%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)21.4%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)21.4%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.9%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)22.5%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.2%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.6%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.1%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.1%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)26.6%2.3

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.2%2.0

8. Eli White (R)20.8%2.0

9. Didier Fuentes (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0

2. Miguel Rojas (R)17.3%3.0

3. Santiago Espinal (R)19.5%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.7%3.0

5. Alex Call (R)19.4%2.6

6. Andy Pages (R)21.4%2.0

7. Dalton Rushing (L)25.5%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)18.9%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%3.0

2. Matt Vierling (R)21.2%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)20.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)27.0%2.8

5. Dillon Dingler (R)20.8%2.0

6. Jahmai Jones (R)23.7%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)21.5%2.0

8. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.4%2.0

9. Wenceel Pérez (L)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sal Frelick (L)13.1%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)19.9%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)14.2%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)23.4%3.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)21.6%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)23.4%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)21.6%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.7%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.4%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.2%2.2

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.0%2.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)24.6%2.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)26.4%2.0

7. Randal Grichuk (R)20.6%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.7%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB16.8%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)12.9%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)15.4%3.0

3. Connor Norby (R)28.7%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)26.3%3.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)23.3%2.9

6. Christopher Morel (R)23.2%2.0

7. Owen Caissie (L)30.9%2.0

8. Otto Lopez (R)20.3%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)17.6%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)25.3%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)21.6%2.1

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.6%2.0

6. Cole Young (L)22.4%2.0

7. Connor Joe (R)23.7%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)22.1%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.1%3.0

2. Cedric Mullins (L)19.5%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)18.2%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.4%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.6%2.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.3%2.0

7. Chandler Simpson (L)17.8%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)20.1%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.7% K/BF

vs LHB17.1%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Merrill (L)22.9%3.0

2. Manny Machado (R)22.8%3.0

3. Miguel Andujar (R)18.8%3.0

4. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.5%3.0

5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.1%3.0

6. Ramón Laureano (R)28.9%2.4

7. Nick Castellanos (R)22.5%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.8%2.0

9. Ty France (R)16.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)18.0%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.2%3.0

3. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.5%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)24.2%2.8

5. Brett Baty (L)23.5%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)20.2%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)19.3%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.6%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Outman (L)27.7%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)21.1%3.0

3. Trevor Larnach (L)19.0%2.7

4. Josh Bell (L)19.0%2.0

5. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.0%2.0

6. Victor Caratini (L)20.9%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)17.4%2.0

8. Matt Wallner (L)27.4%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB16.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0

2. Miguel Amaya (R)22.3%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.7%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.8%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.2%2.5

6. Michael Busch (L)22.8%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.2%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.1%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)25.0%2.0

2. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.1%2.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.7%2.0

4. Matt Chapman (R)24.7%2.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)26.3%1.6

6. Willy Adames (R)28.9%1.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.0%1.0

8. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%1.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)22.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, May 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K, with Will Warren (NYY) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Tyler Glasnow

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against HOU. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and HOU has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Will Warren (NYY) (63) — about 5.7 K vs TEX: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (63) — about 5.9 K vs PIT: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (61) — about 5.5 K vs AZ: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Cole Ragans (KC) (59) — about 5.2 K vs CLE: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) (57) — about 5.4 K vs ATH: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Colin Rea is the arm to exploit it (41).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Michael Soroka is the arm to exploit it (63).
STL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Brandon Sproat is the arm to exploit it (37).
HOU is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Tyler Glasnow is the arm to exploit it (100).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.5 strikeouts. Top play Tyler Glasnow punched out 2. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, May 6, 2026)?: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.2 K against HOU. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, May 6, 2026: Tyler Glasnow (~7.2 K), Will Warren (~5.7 K), Michael Soroka (~5.9 K), Paul Skenes (~5.5 K), Cole Ragans (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, May 6, 2026?: Tyler Glasnow punched out 2.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.