Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 14, 2026)?

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against BOS. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 14, 2026: Jesús Luzardo (~6.4 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Nolan McLean (~6.0 K), Chase Burns (~5.7 K), Landen Roupp (~5.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, May 14, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 14, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–7

COLaway

PIThomeTop matchup46 Final · 1–15

WSHaway

CINhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–9

DETaway

NYMhomeTop matchup94 Final · 1–9

MIAaway

MINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 1–7

SDaway

MILhomeTop matchup61 Final · 8–3

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup50 Final · 5–4

STLaway

ATHhomeTop matchup40 Final · 3–1

PHIaway

BOShomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–0

CHCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup95 Final · 2–6

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup54 Final · 2–5

SFaway

LADhomeTop matchup68

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.3%3.0

2. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.4%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.9%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)21.8%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.4%3.0

6. Trevor Story (R)24.6%2.4

7. Mickey Gasper (R)22.6%2.0

8. Masataka Yoshida (L)19.4%2.0

9. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.6% K/BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)16.4%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)18.6%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)26.8%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)21.3%3.0

5. Matt Shaw (R)19.2%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)23.4%2.4

7. Dansby Swanson (R)23.3%2.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)19.6%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.1%3.0

2. Colt Keith (L)21.6%3.0

3. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)22.4%3.0

5. Gage Workman (L)22.1%2.4

6. Zach McKinstry (L)20.9%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.0%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)19.3%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joey Wiemer (R)29.6%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.0%3.0

3. Brady House (R)24.9%3.0

4. José Tena (L)23.8%3.0

5. Jacob Young (R)19.1%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)18.5%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.3%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.8%2.0

9. Drew Millas (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Will Smith (R)17.9%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)15.7%3.0

3. Kyle Tucker (L)18.6%3.0

4. Andy Pages (R)20.7%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)21.9%2.6

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.9%2.0

7. Dalton Rushing (L)25.6%2.0

8. Santiago Espinal (R)18.9%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)16.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.3%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)9.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.6%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.6%3.0

5. Heliot Ramos (R)23.9%2.4

6. Willy Adames (R)25.8%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)25.0%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.7%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.6%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)23.4%3.0

3. Ty France (R)24.6%3.0

4. Miguel Andujar (R)19.6%2.6

5. Gavin Sheets (L)21.3%2.0

6. Ramón Laureano (R)24.7%2.0

7. Nick Castellanos (R)24.1%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)22.0%2.0

9. Bryce Johnson (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.0%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.8%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.7%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.1%3.0

5. Christopher Morel (R)26.2%3.0

6. Jakob Marsee (L)23.1%2.0

7. Leo Jiménez (R)19.7%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.9%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.4%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)18.0%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)29.6%3.0

4. Tristan Peters (L)25.0%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)20.9%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.5%2.2

7. Derek Hill (R)24.0%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.6%2.0

9. Jarred Kelenic (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)15.0%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.2%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)16.2%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.6%3.0

5. Luke Raley (L)30.2%3.0

6. J.P. Crawford (L)19.7%2.6

7. Dominic Canzone (L)22.7%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)28.7%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Cole (L)25.4%3.0

2. Jose Altuve (R)18.8%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)21.0%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)18.9%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)21.9%2.6

6. Braden Shewmake (L)20.2%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)27.9%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)28.1%2.0

9. César Salazar (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.0%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)19.9%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.0%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.3%2.6

5. Konnor Griffin (R)24.4%2.0

6. Billy Cook (R)23.8%2.0

7. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.2%2.0

8. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.1%2.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)25.5%3.0

2. Will Benson (L)22.3%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)19.6%3.0

4. Spencer Steer (R)20.7%3.0

5. JJ Bleday (L)21.6%3.0

6. Blake Dunn (R)26.7%2.4

7. Matt McLain (R)22.8%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)20.7%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)23.4%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.2%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.8%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)24.6%3.0

5. Michael Stefanic (R)21.9%2.0

6. Henry Bolte (R)21.6%2.0

7. Zack Gelof (R)25.6%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)17.3%2.0

9. Colby Thomas (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)20.0%3.0

2. Joey Ortiz (R)21.8%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)13.7%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)23.1%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)21.4%2.5

6. Luis Rengifo (L)15.9%2.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)33.2%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)13.5%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.5%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.6%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)25.5%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)19.5%2.1

6. Brandon Marsh (L)25.6%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.7%2.0

8. Bryson Stott (L)17.2%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)17.3%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (R)19.7%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)19.0%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)23.2%3.0

5. Victor Caratini (R)23.7%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)19.5%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)21.7%2.0

8. Ryan Kreidler (R)21.1%2.0

9. James Outman (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.2%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.0%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)24.1%3.0

4. Masyn Winn (R)17.1%2.9

5. Nolan Gorman (L)24.8%2.0

6. Alec Burleson (L)18.9%2.0

7. Thomas Saggese (R)26.2%2.0

8. Nathan Church (L)20.9%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)21.1%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.5%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)18.5%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)24.4%3.0

5. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.2%2.6

6. Brett Baty (L)24.0%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)19.8%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)21.8%2.0

9. Hayden Senger (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.4 BF

Expected batters faced13.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jordan Beck (R)25.4%2.0

2. Brenton Doyle (R)22.9%2.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.1%2.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)19.0%2.0

5. Willi Castro (R)23.6%1.4

6. Mickey Moniak (L)30.1%1.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)19.9%1.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.7%1.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)26.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.4 BF

Expected batters faced15.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.4%2.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.8%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.8%2.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)20.1%2.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.0%2.0

6. Austin Riley (R)26.8%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)18.4%1.4

8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.1%1.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.1%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.2%2.7

5. Nick Loftin (R)17.8%2.0

6. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)23.9%2.0

7. Starling Marte (R)22.3%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)25.5%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, May 14, 2026

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, May 14, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K, with Chris Sale (ATL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jesús Luzardo

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against BOS. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and BOS has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Chris Sale (ATL) (95) — about 6.3 K vs CHC: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (94) — about 6.0 K vs DET: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Chase Burns (CIN) (70) — about 5.7 K vs WSH: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (68) — about 5.3 K vs LAD: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (65) — about 5.5 K vs SF: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Mason Montgomery is the arm to exploit it (10).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Chase Dollander is the arm to exploit it (46).
SD is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Kyle Harrison is the arm to exploit it (61).
HOU is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Luis Castillo is the arm to exploit it (47).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.9 strikeouts. Top play Jesús Luzardo punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 14, 2026)?: Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.4 K against BOS. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 14, 2026: Jesús Luzardo (~6.4 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Nolan McLean (~6.0 K), Chase Burns (~5.7 K), Landen Roupp (~5.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, May 14, 2026?: Jesús Luzardo punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.