Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zack Wheeler. The lefty is going deep on .078 HR/PA against righties this year — and .068 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Zack Wheeler has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .203 in 64 career PA against Zack Wheeler. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (99) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: real bat at .046 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (99) vs RHP Jose Cabrera: big-time bat at .055 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (98) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .047 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (90) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (90) vs RHP Jared Jones: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (85) vs RHP Nick Martinez: real bat at .042 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (83) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.